Recent statements by Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell have added new uncertainty to the market. Solomon mentioned that the Fed may cut interest rates once or twice later this year, which is in stark contrast to his expectations two months ago. At that time, he believed that there would be no interest rate cuts in 2024 and expressed his readiness to deal with more severe inflation. Powell said that the Fed is getting closer to cutting interest rates and may discuss rate cuts at the September meeting, but emphasized that it is not yet at that point. At the meeting on July 31, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%, in line with market expectations. It is worth noting that according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 90.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 9.5%. The probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points by November is 21.7%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 71.1%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 75 basis points is 7.2%. Overall, although Goldman Sachs and the Fed's leadership have different views on the prospects of rate cuts, the market's expectations for a rate cut in September are very strong. The Fed's decision will be based on inflation, employment, risk balance and overall data performance, so the data in the next few months will be key.
Recently, Fidelity International launched a physical Bitcoin ETP (Exchange Traded Product) on the London Stock Exchange. This move marks the further recognition of the cryptocurrency market by traditional financial institutions. Fidelity International's physical Bitcoin ETP provides players with a way to hold Bitcoin directly, rather than through futures or other derivatives. This direct holding method can reduce the risks caused by market volatility and leverage effects. Compared with other forms of Bitcoin investment, physical ETP provides players with higher transparency and security. In addition, as one of the world's major financial markets, the London Stock Exchange's acceptance of cryptocurrency products also reflects the market's growing demand and recognition for cryptocurrencies. This trend will attract more traditional financial institutions and players to enter the cryptocurrency market, thereby promoting the further development and maturity of the market.
Mt.Gox recently announced that it has repaid more than 17,000 creditors as of July 31, 2024. This series of repayment actions was carried out in the form of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash through designated cryptocurrency exchanges. This repayment is another important move after July 5, 16 and 24, 2024. According to Mt.Gox's compensation plan, the remaining creditors need to meet the following conditions before they can be repaid: (i) confirm the validity of the registered account and other related matters; (ii) the designated cryptocurrency exchange's intention to accept the subscription agent receipt agreement; (iii) the trustee and the designated cryptocurrency exchange have completed relevant discussions; (iv) confirm that the repayment can be carried out safely and reliably. Mt.Gox emphasized that eligible creditors will have to wait for a period of time to complete all necessary steps. This repayment action shows that Mt.Gox is actively promoting the compensation process, but it also exposes the complex repayment process and strict conditions. This reflects the high requirements of the cryptocurrency market in terms of security and compliance, and also shows the protection of creditors' interests. In the future, as more creditors meet the conditions, we can expect the compensation work to continue to move forward, but the specific progress still needs to be observed.
The U.S. spot Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of 23,500 coins yesterday, worth $77.2 million.
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 268 coins yesterday, worth $17.7 million.
BTC: The monthly line closed with a high wind and big waves, indicating that the battle between long and short positions last month was extremely fierce, and the longs narrowly won. The daily line closed with a small negative line, and is now at the 60-day moving average. The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of 268 coins yesterday, worth US$17.7 million. The long-short ratio data climbed again. MACD shows that DIF and DEA continue to fall, and the red column expands, indicating that the short force is strong. CCI is also at -45.02, indicating that the market is in a weak state. Overall, the market is currently in a volatile downward trend. Pressure reference: 70000-71200 range;
ETH: The monthly line closed with a hanging line. Although the bulls had some support below, they were still defeated by the bears. The daily line closed with a spinning line, and the upper shadow was long, indicating that there is still selling pressure above it. It is now below the 200-day moving average. The U.S. spot Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of 23,500 coins yesterday, worth 77.2 million U.S. dollars. In summary, there may be further declines in the future. Pressure reference: around 3603; around 3790;
DCR: It closed with a dragonfly cross yesterday and is now at the 30-day moving average. The daily MACD is on an upward trend and may see a strong rise at any time in the next few days.
The panic index is currently 52 (neutral) #美联储何时降息？ #MtGox钱包动态 #比特币走势分析
