The current air situation is volatile, with little fluctuation throughout the afternoon. Ethereum is particularly outrageous, going sideways directly. Those who know are building momentum due to news, while those who don’t know think it’s the weekend. In the evening, there will be the US July ADP employment figures at 20:15, followed by the “small non-farm” and the Fed! Especially the latter, the US “small non-farm” ADP employment report and the Fed’s interest rate decision will be released in turn, and will be announced at 20:15 tonight and 02:00 in the morning Beijing time respectively. The market currently expects that the much-anticipated Fed interest rate statement and Powell’s press conference will sound the horn of a September rate cut, which may trigger a huge market shock.

According to CME’s “Federal Reserve Watch”: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 95.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.1%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 0%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 88.7%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 11%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points is 0.3%.

The market generally believes that the probability of a rate cut in August is high, so in the latest round of resolutions, the most critical link is to see what Powell will say tonight.

At present, the financial game between China and the United States has entered the final stage, and the outcome is about to be determined. The eyes of the world are focused on this. As long as the situation eases, not only the currency circle, foreign exchange market and stock market will be positively affected, but even daily life will show obvious changes. House prices may rebound quickly, bringing significant positive effects, which is not only local, but also global.

At this stage, we continue to be bullish. Friends who have already entered the market are advised to find a suitable point to leave or reduce their positions before the news comes. Friends who have not yet entered the market can wait and see for the time being, and make further arrangements after the news is clear. #美国政府转移BTC #超级央行周 #比特币大会 #美联储何时降息？ #美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易