Let me talk about the market trend in the future;

First; if the current market wants to make a breakthrough, it may not be possible to rely solely on interest rate cuts. It also needs the help of the US election. Of course, this is under the premise that there is no black/white swan. Once a swan appears, nothing can be said.

Second; Trump is unlikely to accept Powell's interest rate cut in September. Powell does not need to cut interest rates by one basis point in September. It will not hurt or offend the Republicans. He can wait until December to cut two basis points at one time. Therefore, not cutting interest rates in September is the biggest black swan. (If there is really no interest rate cut, it will indeed be troublesome, of course there is also the dot plot)

Third; Wall Street is now in control of the rhythm. The summer offensive should be unlikely. September is also iffy. But once the interest rate is cut, the market should turn around and go straight to the election to wait for the results, just like waiting for the report to come out. Kawakami is big, and the silly mistress is resting

Fourth; there needs to be substantial policy promotion or new application scenario narratives, otherwise it is difficult for hot money to come in. The liquidity brought by the interest rate cut may not necessarily increase. Politicians say that it can only pull up the market in the short term, and the price cannot stand firm, and finally it will stay in the current range.