BTC: local and global picture, our vision.

The#BTCrate reached the volume level of $69,740, working off the “Morning Star”. And continuing to move in the local fifth wave.

The price is now at the level of June 12, having absorbed almost the entire (but not yet all) June downtrend. While the price remains above the volumetric and psychological level of $69,000, the priority is to further work out the local fifth wave of July growth (the anxiety was revised before Trump’s speech, when the high on July 22 was updated). That is, while the price is above $69,000, the local fifth wave is not completed.

If the body fixes the daily candle above the volume level of $69,740, we wait for a test of the level of $70,780. And then, with a breakdown - the test of $72,046 and the global upward trend (indicated by a dotted line). An indicator with a multiplier on the daily TF gives today the following growth targets: $71,590, $73,920 (remember, it is sensitive to movements and targets, although not significantly, but they can change within a day).

The growth at Trump's speech did not allow the targets of the local fifth wave to be fulfilled immediately and, in principle, the bulls suffered more from liquidations there (why - wrote here).

We don’t change the anxiety and correction goals, we just stretched out their development over time. Expecting the#BTCrate in the range of $60,000-62,000, remember the gap of $57,880-60,840 on the BTC futures chart on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It would be ideal to close it before growth too. But this can happen: a) only at CME, b) later. We remember that the closing of a gap determines not its size, but the trend. The trend so far says no.

We believe that this time, with a high degree of probability, we are talking about a correction, after which there will finally be active growth of BTC. Whether a new ATH will be installed now or after this correction is the only intrigue for us. We expect that after. If before, then the correction may be stronger than expected and come to the gap range on the CME of $57,880-60,840 and on spot.

We also believe that the July 5 price ($53,485) will not be rewritten during the expected correction. The large-scale fourth corrective wave of the entire uptrend since November 2022 is ending. Currently it has lasted 137 days, which is a lot. Everything is in apathy, with liquidations and the spot closed in the minus. 

Let us recall that we wrote many times - the end of the fourth wave will mark such an event as a true breakdown of the downward trend from ATH on July 14. There were already false breakouts on May 20 and June 4. We bet that the last, third false breakout started on July 26-27. After which there will be the same correction described and then a true breakdown. And the beginning of BTC growth in the global (and long) fifth wave of this cycle.

In the medium term (until the end of the year), all growth since July 5, which we decompose into five almost complete waves, is only the first wave of the beginning medium-term growth. And after this first wave, of course, there must be a second correctional wave. Which will consist of the local ABC structure indicated on the graph.

If it’s difficult to explain, it’s clearly shown on a separate, uncluttered chart.

During local reviews, we have not shown our mid-term expectations for a long time. Taking into account all the events and movements of the summer, for now we are schematically waiting for exactly this path of the#BTCexchange rate by dates and levels for the rest of the summer and autumn.

$100,000 is the goal by the end of the year. And, very likely, this is not the final goal of this bull market. As they wrote earlier - the minimum goal.

There is already a basis for this scenario - a buy signal from the Hash Ribbons indicator on the weekly time frame.

And by the way, note that the past two such signals from Hash Ribbons, in January 2023 and August 2023, were “omens” for growth in the first and third waves. A new signal in this logic is an “omen” for growth in the global fifth wave.

The most interesting question is from what level and at what moment will retail be given a global long squeeze of -50% (liquidation for x2 shoulders) before the bullrun - the lightning-fast uptrend of the cycle. We still can't stop waiting for this scenario. “Excess passengers” must be disembarked.