Bitcoin failed to break through the $70,000 mark last week and has been slowly adjusting and rising in a weak range. Currently, Bitcoin is relatively weak in terms of trading volume and other aspects. Since it is a weak trend, it will not rise instantly in the short term. Only when the trading volume increases and then breaks through, can the passion of the market be reignited.
Whether it is weekly or daily charts, the trend of Bitcoin is relatively healthy. At the current short-term level, we should pay attention to the 70,000 US dollar mark. Once it breaks through and stabilizes, the market sentiment will be mobilized again. This week, it is expected to break through and stabilize the 70,000 US dollar mark. Let's look forward to it together.
Looking at the news this week, everyone is paying attention to the Federal Reserve’s announcement of interest rates (August 1) and non-farm data (August 2), which will have some impact on market fluctuations.
August is increasingly expected:
1. The negative factors are gradually disappearing. The previous German government's market crash has ended, the compensation of Mt. Gox is about to end, and Grayscale's ETH crash is also coming to an end.
2. After Trump's speech, the expectations should have been fully traded, but Bitcoin is still standing firmly above 67,000 (but there should be a correction in the near future).
3. The interest rate will be cut in September soon, so it is time to start trading on the expectation of the rate cut.
4. Retail investor sentiment has been fluctuating since April, especially the copycat investors, which have been under extreme pressure.
5. The on-chain market has also begun to gradually recover, and people's enthusiasm for the local dog has slowly heated up.
After Bitcoin breaks through 70,000, will the market start to accelerate?
Since March, this is the fifth time that Bitcoin has hit the trend line and the fifth time that Bitcoin has hit the 70,000 level. Here is a brief explanation of why we believe that Bitcoin will reach the 70,000 level this week.
Trump's speech is a good test. The market makers use it to test the overall market. The market makers use Trump's speech to touch the trend line twice to test the selling pressure, testing up and down, and the amplitude is not large.
The first abnormal point is that during Trump's speech, the price of Bitcoin did not increase by more than 70,000 yuan, and the hourly line amplitude was too low. If the dealer wanted to cheat, he would definitely use Trump's speech to tell a story, pull the price above 70,000 yuan, cheat the contract to open an order, and then cut it down.
In fact, there is no, which means that the banker does not want floating chips. From this, we can see that the rebound and rise after the sharp drop in early July are not considered to be a scam by the banker, and the average volume is also higher than that in May and June.
Especially the 70,000 position, which is too critical. It takes a lot of real money to break through here. The dealer is unlikely to spend money here and waste time. So much money is spent just to prepare for the breakthrough.
How will the market develop in the future? Here are some opinions:
Pay attention to Ethereum and altcoins. After the ETH ETF is passed, the logic of ETH has changed, and Grayscale’s selling pressure will gradually be digested.
The net inflow of funds into ETFs has brought prosperity to the entire cottage industry.
There is no copycat season with a general rise in prices, only the rotation of sectors and the performances of some copycats.
1. The non-US bull market has not come yet, because the US dollar index has not broken 100, but it will definitely come, which is determined by the issuance of US dollars and the tidal mechanism.
2. In the medium term, the amount of surrender on the BTC chain is still insufficient. If the scale of surrender is large, it can be confirmed that the bottom has been completed. If it is insufficient, it can only be said that it is uncertain.
3. The cottage industry has reached the previous low, and the emotions have been washed away. So the conclusion is that this may be the bottom, or it may not be, but it is definitely not the top of the cycle.
BTC is not cheap at this position, so no one will buy it at a high interest rate, but it is not expensive either, so institutions that have already bought it will not sell it here. This is the equilibrium price, equivalent to 10,000 to 12,000 USD in 20 years. To continue to rise, we need to wait for the Fed to expand its balance sheet.
When will the Fed expand its balance sheet? I heard that the US Treasury bonds of the last 10 years failed to be sold. This means that the Treasury Department has to sell the bonds to the Fed, otherwise it will continue to raise interest rates, which will kill all banks.
This week's focus events:
Thursday 02:00: The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision, and the market is waiting for policy direction. Thursday 02:30: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech, and his remarks may further affect market sentiment.
Friday 20:30: The unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls data will be released. As important economic indicators, they will directly reflect the state of the employment market and have a significant impact on market trends.
Bitcoin failed to break through the $70,000 mark last week and has been slowly adjusting and rising in a weak range. Currently, Bitcoin is relatively weak in terms of trading volume and other aspects. Since it is a weak trend, it will not rise instantly in the short term. Only when the trading volume increases and then breaks through, can the passion of the market be reignited.
Whether it is weekly or daily charts, the trend of Bitcoin is relatively healthy. At the current short-term level, we should pay attention to the 70,000 US dollar mark. Once it breaks through and stabilizes, the market sentiment will be mobilized again. This week, it is expected to break through and stabilize the 70,000 US dollar mark. Let's look forward to it together.
Looking at the news this week, everyone is paying attention to the Federal Reserve’s announcement of interest rates (August 1) and non-farm data (August 2), which will have some impact on market fluctuations.
August is increasingly expected:
1. The negative factors are gradually disappearing. The previous German government's market crash has ended, the compensation of Mt. Gox is about to end, and Grayscale's ETH crash is also coming to an end.
2. After Trump's speech, the expectations should have been fully traded, but Bitcoin is still standing firmly above 67,000 (but there should be a correction in the near future).
3. The interest rate will be cut in September soon, so it is time to start trading on the expectation of the rate cut.
4. Retail investor sentiment has been fluctuating since April, especially the copycat investors, which have been under extreme pressure.
5. The on-chain market has also begun to gradually recover, and people's enthusiasm for the local dog has slowly heated up.
After Bitcoin breaks through 70,000, will the market start to accelerate?
Since March, this is the fifth time that Bitcoin has hit the trend line and the fifth time that Bitcoin has hit the 70,000 level. Here is a brief explanation of why we believe that Bitcoin will reach the 70,000 level this week.
Trump's speech is a good test. The market makers use it to test the overall market. The market makers use Trump's speech to touch the trend line twice to test the selling pressure, testing up and down, and the amplitude is not large.
The first abnormal point is that during Trump's speech, the price of Bitcoin did not increase by more than 70,000 yuan, and the hourly line amplitude was too low. If the dealer wanted to cheat, he would definitely use Trump's speech to tell a story, pull the price above 70,000 yuan, cheat the contract to open an order, and then cut it down.
In fact, there is no, which means that the banker does not want floating chips. From this, we can see that the rebound and rise after the sharp drop in early July are not considered to be a scam by the banker, and the average volume is also higher than that in May and June.
Especially the 70,000 position, which is too critical. It takes a lot of real money to break through here. The dealer is unlikely to spend money here and waste time. So much money is spent just to prepare for the breakthrough.
How will the market develop in the future? Here are some opinions:
Pay attention to Ethereum and altcoins. After the ETH ETF is passed, the logic of ETH has changed, and Grayscale’s selling pressure will gradually be digested.
The net inflow of funds into ETFs has brought prosperity to the entire cottage industry.
There is no copycat season with a general rise in prices, only the rotation of sectors and the performances of some copycats.
1. The non-US bull market has not come yet, because the US dollar index has not broken 100, but it will definitely come, which is determined by the issuance of US dollars and the tidal mechanism.
2. In the medium term, the amount of surrender on the BTC chain is still insufficient. If the scale of surrender is large, it can be confirmed that the bottom has been completed. If it is insufficient, it can only be said that it is uncertain.
3. The cottage industry has reached the previous low, and the emotions have been washed away. So the conclusion is that this may be the bottom, or it may not be, but it is definitely not the top of the cycle.
BTC is not cheap at this position, so no one will buy it at a high interest rate, but it is not expensive either, so institutions that have already bought it will not sell it here. This is the equilibrium price, equivalent to 10,000 to 12,000 USD in 20 years. To continue to rise, we need to wait for the Fed to expand its balance sheet.
When will the Fed expand its balance sheet? I heard that the US Treasury bonds of the last 10 years failed to be sold. This means that the Treasury Department has to sell the bonds to the Fed, otherwise it will continue to raise interest rates, which will kill all banks.
This week's focus events:
Thursday 02:00: The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision, and the market is waiting for policy direction. Thursday 02:30: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech, and his remarks may further affect market sentiment.
Friday 20:30: The unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls data will be released. As important economic indicators, they will directly reflect the state of the employment market and have a significant impact on market trends.
