The Ethereum ETF spot was approved and landed as expected, but the market price did not rise or fall. What does this mean?

This shows that the market has already digested this expectation a long time ago. As for whether it will plummet in the short term, it depends on the overall market conditions of Bitcoin, or more specifically, whether there is speculation about interest rate cuts in August! Otherwise, is there anything that can drive the market trend?

Don’t be anxious. The impact of the approval of the ETH ETF will be far-reaching and long-lasting. Just wait for this investment product that is recognized by the public to make you question your life.

The ETF’s first-day trading volume was 1 billion. In January this year, the BTC ETF’s first-day trading volume was 4.6 billion, equivalent to 20% of BTC.

The PMI data will be released tonight at 21:45, and the PCE data will be released on Friday at 20:30. If the data is negative, the index will fall to around 63,000, and if the data is positive, it will only rise in the short term.

The frequent transfers in Mentougou recently also reduced the investment confidence of some investors.

I think the impact of Mentougou is only temporary, and the impact will become smaller and smaller in the future. The market can handle hundreds of thousands of coins. If it continues to fall back, it will be a good time to deploy in batches!

ETH is similar to what I said in yesterday's article. Let's start with the callback! Although ETFs are open for trading, the funds do not come in all at once, but continuously, so the first wave is likely to be unable to hedge the previous profit chips, so the price will fall quickly after the high. Secondly, everyone has already bought the ETH series, which makes the car heavy.

Therefore, the small level goes down again. Next, we will pay attention to the support below in the small range of 3200-3300, which is also a good entry point. If we take it, the profit will be very substantial!

What stage is the market currently in?

July is already halfway through, and after the surge in the first quarter of this year, the top 400 tokens have fallen by 45% in the second quarter.

The main reason for the decline in the second quarter occurred in early April, when the market began to re-price the scenario of rising long-term interest rates, as the economy remained strong and inflation was high, in sharp contrast to the previous view that interest rates would fall quickly.

By July, the German government began selling about $3 billion worth of Bitcoin, and the compensation schedule for Mt. Gox, worth about $9 billion, was determined, causing the market to panic and fall again.

Many people have begun to doubt the authenticity of the bull market. Let us continue to analyze what stage the bull market is currently in.

First, let's review the historical bull market cycles. The first stage is the early stage of the rebound, and Bitcoin often outperforms other markets. The second stage is the late stage, and the performance of altcoins often outperforms other markets, which is what we commonly call the "altcoin season". However, only BTC and ETH have seen a leading rise, and many altcoins are still in the bear market. We have every reason to believe that the second stage has not yet arrived, and the market development is also moving towards the second stage.

Trump turned to support cryptocurrency in early May, followed by legislative progress such as FIT21 and the approval of Ethereum ETF. Just yesterday, ETH spot ETF was officially traded, and a large amount of funds poured into ETH. In addition, many well-known American politicians publicly supported cryptocurrency, which is very beneficial to our industry.

To sum up, I believe that in the near future, when the copycat season comes, you will be grateful for the stage of holding on firmly!

The Bitcoin Conference is coming up soon!

Before the conference, the market surged for two consecutive weeks. As the conference approaches, the market is in a state of volatility. The curse of "falling every time there is a conference" still exists, but this is not a big problem. The trend of interest rate cuts is coming soon. When others are still expecting a surge in the Bitcoin conference, you should look at the longer-term benefits. Investing sometimes means looking a few steps ahead of others.

The current correction and consolidation should not be too large. After all, the extreme fear has already occurred half a month ago. In the bull market cycle, there are not many "extreme fears". One in September 2023 and one in early July 2024.

In 2023, the cryptocurrency market will slowly recover from the recession. Many people still have bearish thinking and collectively saw the sharp drop at the end of 2019. Don't focus on the long term, just focus on the short term, a new round of bull market cycle has begun.

In 2024, Bitcoin will be halved and Bitcoin spot ETF will be approved. But people are sometimes worried about the recurrence of 312, sometimes worried about the Fed not cutting interest rates, sometimes worried about Germany selling coins, and sometimes worried about Mentougou selling coins. But BlackRock and other institutions have been buying, and the Fed will cut interest rates sooner or later. Trump is publicly supporting the crypto market.

In the future, the market will be driven by multiple factors, including the US presidential election, the growth of institutional Bitcoin holdings, and the trend of interest rate cuts.

In terms of the market, if Bitcoin cannot instantly break through the strong resistance near the top of 71,500, it will adjust in a volatile manner. Currently, the 4-hour level is undergoing a box adjustment. After the adjustment is completed, there will be an instant upward trend in the market. Those who do contracts at this position and this cycle should pay special attention.

In addition to meme, there are also some RWA-related tracks that need to be focused on. In addition, the Bitcoin ecosystem is also worthy of attention. I believe that the Bitcoin ecosystem will have a large wave of market trends.