Recently, the price of BTC has experienced a continuous correction, falling below the 66,000 mark. In this wave of market fluctuations, Mt.Gox's BTC distribution has become the focus of attention.
The American political arena also staged a drama of changing the leadership. The Democratic Party was appointed in a critical moment, and Harris walked to the stage with a smile on her face. The latest opinion polls show that she has formed a close competition with the popular Trump, and there is even a chance of a comeback. Such political changes have undoubtedly brought uncertainty to the market, and the cryptocurrency market's positive expectations for Trump have been suppressed.
If Harris can really reverse the election situation and successfully enter the White House, the plot of the cartoon "The Simpsons" may really become a stroke of genius. Interestingly, it is rumored that Harris's campaign team will attend the "Bitcoin 2024 Conference" this week. Netizens joked that if Harris announced at the conference that BTC would be included in the national strategic reserve, it would really be ahead of the opponent and catch the opponent off guard.
Turning to Japan, KrakenFX CEO announced that the BTC and BCH compensation distribution to the victims of Mt.Gox has been completed. From the on-chain data, it can be seen that the BTC address distributed this time is consistent with the previously mentioned address, and its balance has rapidly decreased to zero in a short period of time. This batch of more than 43,000 BTC comes from the total asset pool of Mt.Gox, and there are still more than 90,000 BTC left in the pool.
How much impact will the Mt.Gox compensation distribution have on the market? We can draw some inspiration from the recent case of the German government selling BTC. With almost no other interference factors, the German government's selling behavior provides a clear observation window for the market.
Judging from the market reaction, the price of BTC began to fall more than ten days before the German government's sell-off, which reflects the financial market's early reaction to future news. When the German government actually started a large-scale sell-off, the market had already fully priced it.
The market has also started to react before the Mt.Gox distribution. From a rough estimate, the market's purchasing power for digesting Kraken's distribution is comparable to the previous German government sell-off. Considering the smaller number of BTC distributed this time, the lower starting price, and the more dispersed positions after the distribution, the depth of the callback is not expected to be deeper than before.
It is worth noting that the remaining BTC of Mt.Gox will continue to be distributed, and the selling pressure will continue until October. This will put some pressure on the market, but the specific impact needs further observation. In the past few months, we have reported and calculated this from many aspects, so we will not repeat it here.
Overall, Mt.Gox's BTC distribution did cause some shock to the market, but the specific impact still needs to be closely observed based on market dynamics. At the same time, political factors have also added uncertainty to the market. In this context, investors need to remain cautious and pay close attention to market dynamics.
