To identify the trend, we need to define the level first. We use the weekly K level to analyze
#BTC☀ The weekly K formed an M top after breaking through the previous point A. After falling below the recent point C, there were two consecutive positive lines, and a 2B structure appeared at the point C.
We objectively analyze the current market: there was exhaustion and divergence near the previous high, and a oscillation range was formed between 53,000 and 73,000.
Judging the trend
Taking 15,000 as the starting point, there is no doubt that it is still in an upward trend because it has not fallen below the upward trend line.
Starting from point B at 73,000, after breaking through the previous low point A, a 2B structure of a downward trend is formed. Therefore, the above view of the range of 53,000-73,000 is established.
As long as the current market has not fallen below 53,000, it can be regarded as the bottom of the range oscillation or upward oscillation.
As the current market has not broken through 73,000, it can be regarded as the top of a range oscillation or downward oscillation.
Develop a trading plan
1. The current price is 63,000. If I have a position of 10,000 U and I want to earn 100% profit while accepting a maximum 50% retracement, then I open a position now. Whether it is long or short, there are 10,000 points between 53,000/73,000. Then I can only buy 0.5 leverage 10 times, so that the stop loss is at the upper or lower edge of the range, which just meets my plan. My target profit is to earn 100% profit at 43,000OR83,000.
2. Based on 1, I think it may take a long time to reach the target price, which is not what I want. Then I need to revise my plan 1. For example, if I choose to be long, I need to open a position around 53,000. When the price reaches the upper limit of the range, 73,000, I can get 100% profit 20,000*0.5=10,000U.
3. After 2, I think this plan is my final plan, so I will make plan 2 my trading plan. When the price reaches around 53,000, I will wait with a short position. At this time, I need to tell myself clearly that what I need now is not a trading plan, but patience to wait. On the contrary, if I am short, I will wait at the upper edge of the range, 73,000, which is the same logic.
Execution of trading plan
Ultimately, I draw a table like this to watch and wait.
The above are my analysis ideas and steps. If you have different opinions, please discuss with me in the comment area. Because the market changes all the time, the revision of the trading plan becomes particularly important. We will continue to discuss this topic in the next issue.
