In the next two weeks, Mtgox will still have some impact, but yesterday's market performance was very good, Bitcoin was only briefly affected, and the market psychologically felt that the worst moment was over, which is why there was such a strong upward momentum, and the ETF market looked good, which was the largest inflow in a single day after 8 consecutive days of continuous positive inflows. 6,532 bitcoins flowed in the day before yesterday. Blackrock's IBIT flowed in 4,022 bitcoins. Retail investors completely surrendered in the first two weeks. And these traditional financial giants and whales bought Bitcoin from retail investors at a discount.
The German government's sell-off has ended, and an instability factor has been resolved. Of course, there is still some selling pressure on Genesis, but they have handled it through OTC transactions. It seems that the market does not pay much attention, and there are relatively few media reports related to Genesis.
The price of Bitcoin has exceeded $65,000, and short-term holders are not motivated to sell. The art team tends to be bullish on this point. The report also mentioned the capitulation of miners. Their views are similar to those of Cryptocont's CEO, that is, the capitulation of miners has not ended yet and is expected to continue for two or three months. This also points to the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter of this year, when the second half of the Bitcoin bull market will start. The report finally mentioned the topic of the Fed's interest rate cut. The lower-than-expected economic data showed that the Fed would start to cut interest rates in September this year. Some of my previous statements need to be adjusted, that is, the probability of a rate cut in September has actually reached 100%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 93.3%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 6.7%. Powell gave a speech on Monday, saying that the economic data in the second quarter showed that inflation had improved, which provided confidence for possible monetary policy adjustments. The inflation rate is gradually falling back to the target of 2%. Although there are opinions that the interest rate cut should be considered after the inflation rate returns to 2%, Powell believes that there is no need to wait that long, especially in the current economic environment.
