July 16 Crypto Options Market Research Report
Market sentiment rekindled, BTC implied volatility broke through the median value, and the second half of the benefit effect of copycat options has just begun
I. Core Views
1- Previously, when BTC was around 5.4w, I wrote a short essay on Twitter to encourage everyone to buy spot. In the medium term, the winning rate is high and the odds are moderate. It is as expected at present;
2- Previously, I shared in the Planet VX group that I bought 6.1-6.3W calls in August, which have doubled. The main basis for judgment is spot price and iv, both of which are suitable;
3- ETH's s1 file has not yet been implemented. From the perspective of the implied volatility of the options market, there are not many time point expectations. The implied volatility on the call option side is smooth; ETH implied volatility has risen to the 75th percentile. Players familiar with short volatility can arrange on the call side;
4- Be careful of the overall sentiment. Sell the news after the ETH ETF is passed, so it is recommended to short vol as much as possible on the call side
5- The implied volatility of the copycat options fell slightly, Ordi spot rose by 14% again, and the implied volatility fell by 20%. For copycat options, I will still focus on familiar targets Ordi, Ton, and Sol.
Summary: There is no worry about the spot, and it is not suitable to use options to chase highs in the short term; Call-side pocketing or shorting Vol are both good choices.
2. Options block trading
BTC block trading has more than 400 naked buy positions for next year, and there are also 385 positions for calendar spread strategy
buy BTC-28MAR25-100000-C
sell BTC-26JUL24-68000-C + buy BTC-2AUG24-68000-C
ETH block trading has 2 recent bets on bullish strategy, short put spread is more seller-oriented
buy ETH-26JUL24-3700-C
buy ETH-26JUL24-2900-P + sell ETH-26JUL24-3300-P
SOL has more CC strategy positions
3. Macro market
US stocks:
Yesterday, US stocks opened and companies with high correlation with Trump began to have a strong market, such as real estate, manufacturing, finance, etc. Tesla, as a Trump concept high-tech company, rose and fell. At present, Tesla's medium- and long-term option strategy is still suitable for the layout stage. You can ask questions on the planet.
The 20-year US Treasury bond fell slightly. Players who do not have TMF can make some option strategies around the strike price of 45-48 US dollars.
A shares:
Yesterday, GJD stabilized the A-share market, but it can still be seen from the H-share and small-ticket index that market funds are still very cold. No one is willing to price expectations in advance in the prisoner's dilemma.
