N'essayez pas d'aller au fond des choses. Entrer sur le marché par lots est plus avantageux pour les investisseurs particuliers.

团子财经 · 2024-07-15T09:36:39.000Z

Après avoir connu la crise d'indemnisation des créanciers de Mt. Gox et la fin des expéditions de BTC du gouvernement allemand, le marché a fortement rebondi au cours des deux derniers jours. Le prix du BTC est revenu à plus de 62 500 dollars américains, avec une augmentation de près de 24 heures. 5% ; le prix de l'ETH a dépassé 3 300 dollars américains, soit une augmentation de plus de 4 % sur 24 heures. Ce rebond pourrait être affecté par l’assassinat de Trump hier et par sa fuite en toute sécurité. Ce cycle de rebond du marché signifie-t-il que le marché a atteint son point le plus bas ? Même si le Bitcoin a rebondi de plus de 300 % depuis fin 2022, la participation des particuliers est restée atone, le marché est dominé par les investisseurs institutionnels et la volatilité est tombée à 41 %, en dessous de la moyenne sur 5 ans (60 %). À mesure que la participation des particuliers diminue, Bitcoin est de plus en plus dominé par les investisseurs institutionnels, ce qui entraîne une moindre volatilité.

After the Mt.Gox creditor compensation crisis and the German government's BTC shipments, the market has rebounded sharply in the past two days. The BTC price has returned to over $62,500, with a 24-hour increase of nearly 5%; the ETH price has exceeded $3,300, with a 24-hour increase of more than 4%. This rebound may be affected by the assassination of Trump yesterday and his safe escape.
Does this round of market rebound mean that the market has bottomed out?
Despite Bitcoin's more than 300% rebound since the end of 2022, retail participation remains low, the market is dominated by institutional investors, and volatility has fallen to 41%, below the 5-year average of 60%. As retail participation decreases, Bitcoin is increasingly dominated by institutional investors, leading to lower volatility.
Bitcoin search trends dropped from 100% in 2017 to 41% in 2024.
Bitcoin has reached its bottom, and a rise is in sightA "local bottom" has now formed for Bitcoin, and it is now heading for an uptrend. The price of Bitcoin has been hit by a lot of "forced selling" recently, most of which came from the German government selling nearly $3 billion, and negative sentiment towards the repayment of MtGox creditors of about $8.5 billion. Overall, I just feel that there is a big mismatch between market sentiment and fundamentals, and looking forward, there are several key positive factors for the price of Bitcoin in the coming weeks and months, with Powell hinting that a rate cut may be coming soon. We are also seeing new highs in the S&P 500, as well as strong Bitcoin ETF fund inflows.
The market rebound this time also caught many research institutions and individuals by surprise, but the "unexpected good news" came much faster than expected.
Next focus: policy and newsIt is worth noting that a large part of the reason for this market rebound may be due to the rise of "investment risk aversion". In the current turbulent world situation, the turbulence in some regions has exacerbated investors' "risk aversion anxiety". Just like the market performance when the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out a few years ago, cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin and Ethereum first fell sharply, then quickly repaired the price gap and once soared.
Bitcoin is unique because it performs well in both risk-on and risk-off market sentiment. Although we only have historical data for risk-on environments, it is enough to prove that Bitcoin has outperformed any other asset in the market. As inflation declines, we believe that funds previously invested in money market funds and short-term bonds may flow back into the market, and the price of Bitcoin will flourish in the future. Moreover, given the attractiveness of Bitcoin as an asset, the possibility of reverse price behavior or even investment bubbles in the future is higher.
Therefore, we have reason to believe that the next market trend depends mainly on two aspects: on the one hand, the market developments affected by the policies of US regulatory authorities, including Ethereum spot ETF and Solana ETF; on the other hand, it is affected by market news such as Trump’s latest remarks, US presidential election campaign events, and FTX bankruptcy compensation progress.
Key market factors are still unclear, and gradually entering the market is the best approach for retail investorsThe Mt.Gox creditor compensation incident that caused market panic has not directly affected the market price. Instead, the German government's "dumping" that had not attracted much attention before has severely damaged the market, and Bitcoin has therefore fallen below US$54,000.
As time goes by, the key factors that can influence market prices are still relatively limited, and the situation is not clear. Therefore, it is still impossible to judge that the market has "fallen to the bottom" in the short term. Whether cryptocurrencies can grab the attention of a wider range of the public with the help of Trump's assassination remains an unknown.
After all, Bitcoin traders are still facing a difficult situation, with a loss rate of -17%, the lowest level since the FTX debacle. Perhaps the August FTX compensation plan customer vote (deadline is August 16) will determine whether the market will be dominated by buyers or sellers in the coming months.
Later, I will bring you analysis of leading projects in other tracks. If you are interested, you can click to follow. I will also organize some cutting-edge consulting and project reviews from time to time. Welcome all like-minded people in the cryptocurrency circle to explore together.

Bitcoin has reached its bottom, and a rise is in sight

Next focus: policy and news

Key market factors are still unclear, and gradually entering the market is the best approach for retail investors

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