Many people are looking forward to lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, but the market is not short of liquidity.
In 2020, the reserve requirement ratio was lowered three times, releasing 1.8 trillion yuan; twice in 2021, 2.2 trillion yuan; twice in 2023, 1 trillion yuan; once in 2024, 1 trillion yuan. From 2019 to now, M2 has increased by about 60%, while GDP has only increased by 28%.
The currency is growing faster than the economy. But with more currency, prices have not risen but fallen, the stock market is miserable, and the property market has also fallen.
Where did the money go? In 2024, bank deposits will exceed 300 trillion yuan, much more than in 2019, so there is no shortage of money.
Can lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates alone solve the problem of capital flow? We need to think about it carefully.