The crypto market has been unpredictable recently. Many people have begun to think that this is a strange bull market where no one makes any money. Many people even complain that this is the most difficult Bitcoin bull market in history! Therefore, people who have always believed in the idea of "when the market is good, everything looks like the future, but when the market is bad, every project looks like a failure" begins to doubt life and the value of the entire encryption industry, thinking that the bull market is It's about to end...
1. It is difficult to make money in the bull market
Although this bull market is strange, after so many rounds of bull markets, it should be no longer strange. This is the case in the previous article "The logic of the Bitcoin bull market has quietly changed, and many people still can't make money?" 》There has been comparative analysis for a long time. In fact, it is not that this bull market does not make money, but that it is not easy to make money in every bull market. You must know that most of the people who made money in the past few rounds did not get on the bus only in the bull market. Those who came in when they smelled the opportunity to "make money" in the bull market will only realize later that what others make is the money they provide.
In essence, those who can survive through bulls and bears unscathed are the real winners. During the years of ups and downs in the Bitcoin and crypto markets, many famous gold diggers have come, including the Wall Street genius trader SBF, Do Kwon, known as the "Korean Musk", and others, who have all set their sights on the crypto market. The lessons learned are simple. In addition to eagerness for quick success and lack of respect for risks, the most important point is the error of "encryption values".
For a long time, many traders, including those represented by SBF, have claimed to be "smart people". Entering the crypto market may not be because they recognize the value brought by Bitcoin and crypto assets, but because they believe that "there are many fools taking over", and in the spirit of low The idea of reselling Bitcoin to fools at a price that is "airy" was very popular in this market. But what they didn't expect was that in this highly free market, they would never be able to escape the fate of "big fish eating small fish". In any industry, anyone who does not pursue the correct values of the industry, does not recognize the value of the industry, and enters with the mentality of "cutting leeks" is destined to fail in this career. Even if he tastes the benefits at the beginning, he will soon be The market bites back.
Perhaps many people have forgotten the original intention of Bitcoin and the encryption industry, and the final result of distorted values may be serious errors in judgment.
2. What went wrong with the value project?
In this bull market, an obvious feature is the "value projects" that many VCs are enthusiastic about. The old crypto value projects that have been under construction in the crypto market include Ethereum, Layer2, Metaverse, DeFi, etc. Many people thought that the bull market would take off. Soaring's project does not seem to be recognized by the market. Instead, people seem to be more willing to participate in inscriptions and memes. This has to make people reflect on what went wrong with the "crypto value project" that has been built for so many years.
In fact, we can’t blame the market for not taking over value projects at all, but there is something really wrong with the “value projects”! Recently, we have observed that the Ethereum GAS price has even dropped to 1. Some Layer 2, Metaverse, DeFi projects, and newly listed VC projects that do not have much daily activity have not even scratched the surface, but their market values are often as high as hundreds of millions or tens of millions. 100 million. With such poor data and such a high market value, it gives people a sense of an extremely overvalued bubble. Of course, no one will be willing to take over stupidly. It is better to directly reduce the market value and reject all kinds of PUA.
For a long time, many people have paid too much attention to the surface and ignored the underlying reasons. In fact, it is not that value projects have no value. The valuation of many value projects is not only evaluated by active users, because they carry billions of dollars behind them. With tens of billions of TVL, the amount of funds cannot be ignored.
Of course, the most important point is that the "rolling the wool" movement that has been popular in recent years has not only spawned a large number of fake users, but also made it difficult to value new VC projects and make it difficult to calm down and work on them, which has developed into a problem for the entire Web 3 industry. , a large number of fake traffic and users have hijacked these projects to some extent. There are even some organizations that take advantage of the bad market trends to make a high degree of customization in order to make profits: to deceive VCs into taking over deals, they build a superficial star team, and customize "value projects" for people who are "rolling wool". No one cares about technology, and no one cares about whether To solve real needs and problems, it is conceivable that such VC projects with abnormal value orientation will be harvested as soon as they are launched and end miserably.
As a result, people discovered that new and old "value projects" were mixed with impurities. A single piece of mouse droppings can spoil a pot of porridge, not to mention that this is a common phenomenon... Therefore, since it is unclear whether there is value or not, then not accepting the offer becomes a problem. the best strategy.
Of course, even so, we cannot completely deny most of the projects that maintain the original intention of encrypted value. Bitcoin brings asset transparency and self-custody and realizes the sanctity of personal property. Smart contract platforms such as Ethereum including Layer2 bring It provides a "trusted" operating environment for network applications and pushes the network from online to onchain... After baptism, I believe they can still stand firm in the continuous self-correction of the encryption market.
3. The logic of the bull market has not changed
The logic of the bull market has not changed. For a long time, most of the copycats were just the receivers of the overflow of value after Bitcoin surged higher. When the price of Bitcoin enters the high range, it is difficult to rush up. People find that many small cottages with new narratives and low market capitalization seem to be "value depressions." Therefore, driven by FOMO emotions, some funds choose to rush towards these. The surrounding altcoins are "small reservoirs". Because the pool is small, only a small amount of capital is needed to achieve gains of several times or dozens of times, so people gradually realized the logic of this bull market.
But this year, in addition to new and old copycats of various concepts, meme projects are in full bloom. The market has discovered that the value of FOMO emotions can also be collected in containers. Since FOMO emotions can be directly loaded into memes, why waste energy on those How about being filled with all kinds of "rat droppings" and "copycat traps" prepared for retail investors everywhere?
Ever since, memes have directly intercepted funds that should have flowed to copycats. The logic of the bull market has changed, but it has not changed. It’s just that there is an extra meme pool next to the copycat pool to take over the funds that overflow from Bitcoin. .
4. Has the cow left? Most people may have lost their way
Source: Vernacular Blockchain
Many people are entangled and conflicted about whether the bull market is gone and whether there are copycat bulls. But what I want to say is that since we have known for a long time, for most people: "A bull market does not necessarily make money, and a bear market does not necessarily make money." It’s not necessarily a loss of money.” If that’s the case, why do you still care so much about whether it’s good or not?
Source: Vernacular Blockchain
Taking history as a guide, let's take a look at the trend chart of gold over the past 100 years. You will find that Bitcoin, the digital gold, and gold have many similarities in the trend charts, except for some similar attributes:
If the time line is lengthened, the early price trend will almost become a straight line regardless of whether it is bull or bear.
Prices have ups and downs, have cycles, and always maintain a long-term spiral upward channel.
So simply draw a conclusion that has a high probability of being right. Bitcoin is the same as gold. In 100 years, the best long-term strategy will always be a dip allocation.
Source: Vernacular blockchain gold is positively correlated with the trend of U.S. Treasury debt size
Represented by the United States, the world has long entered the path of printing money and creating huge debts, which will never come back. The only way to resolve the debt that continues to rise is to turn on the money printing press...
5. Summary
Recently, factors such as the Mentougou debt liquidation and government sell-offs have had a huge negative impact on the market, but the good side is that these "Sword of Damocles" hanging on the crypto market have also disappeared. If we extend the timeline, the "cow" will always be there, so there is no need to worry at all. We just need to quietly embrace the original intention of encryption and patiently welcome the new era.
[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions contained in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.
This article is reproduced with permission from: "PANews"
Original author: Mu Mu, Vernacular Blockchain