We may already be at the bottom!
Reviewing this wave of washout:
Drivers of the first half of the market: Bitcoin ETF, halving and industry narrative (inscription), the three drivers have created the market of Bitcoin's independent blood-sucking. No matter what the market is, a few days before and after the good news lands, there will be a callback market, and the magnitude of the callback depends on the previous increase.
Prediction of the next wave of market (according to the staged rhythm)
Drivers of the second half of the market: Ethereum ETF (definitely passed), SOL ETF (with a certain probability of passing) interest rate cuts and industry narratives (Ethereum, SOL ecological narratives)
At present, the above major benefits have not been fulfilled, and the expectations are all there. After the good news on the capital side is fulfilled, the funds will gradually enter the market. After entering the market for a period of time, the good news of the industry narrative will land again, and the stage market will end the hype.
I think the position above 52,000 should be the bottom of this round of callback. Falling below 52 to 42 requires new major bad news. I can't see it at present. The power of the bears is gradually weakening. As the saying goes, one effort will be strong, the second will be weak, and the third will be exhausted.
There will not be a big drop in the short term, and the longer the shock here, the stronger the bottom.
However, the callback range of the cottage this time exceeded the market's expectations, because the increase was not high, but it caused a relatively high drop. It is reasonable from the logic of following the decline of Bitcoin, but it is indeed not possible to cause a sharp drop in space due to the liquidity problems of many projects and dispersed funds.
The only core answer is emotional washing. At present, the cottage represents the emotions of retail investors. At present, the retail investors holding cottages have reached the highest level in history. There are very few retail investors holding Bitcoin and Ethereum. Only the big washing of the cottage will cause panic in the bull market, and retail investors will be washed away, making the market healthier.
In short, the most difficult stage is finally over. Many major negative factors have been implemented. The liquidation data in the past few days is comparable to the FTX explosion at the end of 22 years. The characteristics of the bottom are gradually increasing. I suggest that everyone should not be too emotional and bearish. Maybe I am currently at the bottom. I will know the answer in a few months.
