A look at next week's important futures data and events

1. At 21:15 on July 9, Fed Governor Barr was invited to speak at an event hosted by the Fed. At 22:00, Fed Chairman Powell delivered semi-annual monetary policy testimony at the Senate Banking Committee. At 1:30 on July 10, Fed Governor Bowman made an introductory speech at an event hosted by the Fed. At 22:00, Fed Chairman Powell delivered semi-annual monetary policy testimony at the House Financial Services Committee. At 01:00 on July 12, 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Moussalem delivered a speech on the economy. Pay attention to the comments of Fed officials on monetary policy and the evolution of expectations for Fed rate cuts.

2. At 00:00 on July 10, EIA will release its monthly short-term energy outlook report; OPEC will release its monthly crude oil market report on July 10 to be determined. At 16:00 on July 11, IEA will release its monthly crude oil report. Pay attention to the adjustment of the global crude oil supply and demand expectations in the monthly crude oil report.

3. July 10, 12:30, Malaysia MPOB June palm oil report. According to a Reuters survey, Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to rise for the third consecutive month in June due to slowing exports, while production is expected to fall from the previous month due to aging of Malaysian oil palm trees and weather problems. Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to be 1.83 million tons in June 2024, an increase of 4.53% from May; production is expected to fall for the first time in 4 months, at 1.62 million tons, a decrease of 5% from May; exports are expected to be 1.24 million tons, a decrease of 10% from May.

4. July 10th, to be determined, Malaysia's palm oil export volume from July 1st to 10th, according to ITS, Amspec, and SGS. Shipping survey agencies ITS and AmSpec said that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June fell by 11.8% to 15.4% month-on-month. Pay attention to whether Malaysia's palm oil exports will continue to be weak, limiting the upside potential in the future market.

5. At 20:00 on July 11, Conab announced the results of the tenth Brazilian grain production survey for 2023/2024. Previously, Conab announced in June that corn production was 114.1 million tons, and the market expected 113.24, which was much higher than expected. The CBOT corn market fell by nearly 10% in the weeks after the data was released; soybean production also far exceeded expectations, and CBOT soybeans also fell by nearly 10% in the weeks after the data was released. It is necessary to pay attention to the deviation between Conab's latest survey results and market expectations.

6. At 20:30 on July 11, the monthly and annual rates of the US CPI for June were released. The latest annual rate of CPI was 3.3%, lower than the market expectation of 3.4%. Pay attention to whether the CPI data can decline, because the decline of this data means that the possibility of a US interest rate cut is increasing, which has a significant impact on market sentiment.

7. July 11 is to be determined, a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil will begin.

8. At 10:00 on July 12, China released its June trade account data. Previous data showed that China's trade account was 586.4 billion yuan in May, higher than 513.45 billion yuan in April. Pay attention to whether the trade account can continue to rise and boost market sentiment.

9. July 12 to be determined, iron ore inventory in 45 ports in China as of July 11. The black series has fluctuated violently recently, and the black series market has become more sensitive to fundamental news. On July 5, the data was 149.8866 million tons, higher than the previous 149.2632 million tons, and most black series contracts had profit-taking. Pay attention to whether the data will continue to rise in the future.

10. USDA July monthly supply and demand report at 00:00 on July 13. According to market news, the USDA supply and demand report for July is likely to adjust the yield to between 51.5 and 52 bushels per acre, and the beginning inventory for 2024/2025 is expected to be reduced to below 900 million bushels. The inventory is more of an expectation fulfillment. With the valuation of CBOT soybeans at a relatively low level, the upward elasticity of prices is expected to be greater, that is, US soybeans are expected to rise more easily than fall.

The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data