A senior Fed official warned that the U.S. is more vulnerable to inflation shocks than ever before as businesses prepare for potential trade protectionism and new economic policy shocks that may occur after Trump returns to the White House.

Richmond Fed President Barkin noted that despite monthly data released by government agencies showing stagnation in anti-inflation progress, he expects the inflation rate in the U.S., the world's largest economy, to continue to decline.

He warned that although inflation is currently far below the peaks reached during the COVID-19 pandemic, businesses are passing costs onto consumers more quickly than in the past, impacting inflation.

Ukraine's Air Force stated that Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at Dnipro on Thursday, marking the first use of such a powerful long-range missile by Russia during the conflict, a weapon designed to launch nuclear strikes thousands of kilometers away.

According to ABC News, Western officials denied this claim. However, a Western official told ABC News that the attack does not appear to have involved the use of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). This official stated that it was actually a ballistic missile aimed at Dnipro in southeastern Ukraine.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank will carefully examine various data before next month's interest rate review and will 'seriously' consider the impact of yen exchange rate fluctuations on the economic and price outlook.

As the market closely watches Ueda's speech for clues on whether the Bank of Japan might raise interest rates next month, he stated that the central bank will make decisions 'at each meeting' based on the information that will soon be available.

Kazuo Ueda stated at the Tokyo European Financial Forum, 'There is still more than a month until the next Bank of Japan meeting in December. During this time, a lot of data and information will be released.'

Bloomberg oil strategist Julian Lee wrote that falling oil prices and the upcoming period of oversupply could create an excellent opportunity to strengthen sanctions on Russian oil supplies, thereby truly beginning to erode the Kremlin's ability to fund its military operations.

The existing price cap mechanism in the West has not truly limited Moscow's oil revenues. This mechanism was introduced at the urging of the U.S. government, which is also concerned that effectively hitting Russia's oil exports would lead to soaring oil prices.

But nowadays, people are no longer as worried as they were when the sanctions were formulated two years ago.

The price of Bitcoin is gradually approaching the significant threshold of $100,000. Mark Moss, the 'spokesman of the crypto world,' believes that this is not just a price increase, but a 'revolution' of digital assets.

Moss hosts a well-known Bitcoin podcast (The Mark Moss Show), and is seen as an advocate for global digital privacy rights and for encouraging mainstream consumers to adopt cryptocurrency. In an interview, Moss pointed out that the rising debt levels of the U.S. government are driving overall asset prices up, while Bitcoin has become one of the few assets that can consistently outperform the rate of currency inflation.

Wells Fargo Investment Institute believes that the U.S. economy may be stronger in 2025, and coupled with Trump's policy changes in his second term, will provide support for the S&P 500 index and continue to be bullish on market performance in 2025.

Wells Fargo strategists expect the S&P 500 to reach a target range of 6,500-6,700 by the end of 2025, an increase from the previous forecast of 6,200-6,400. The adjustment makes Wells Fargo one of the most optimistic companies on the S&P 500 among major Wall Street institutions. According to the latest forecast, the 2025 index target is nearly 12% higher than Wednesday's closing price.

David Einhorn, founder of Greenlight Capital, prefers to earn gains while waiting for the market to recover, a strategy that applies to all investors. He recently said at the Delivering Alpha conference in November that he had just completed a position in agricultural equipment maker CNH Industrial.

“This is an opportunity that almost no one is paying attention to right now because the stock is cheap and there is probably no good news in the short term,” said the hedge fund manager, who rose to fame by shorting Lehman Brothers during the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

Dilemma in the agricultural market

Farms have certainly had a harder time lately. Wall Street expects CNH to earn $1 per share in 2025, down from $1.70 in 2023 and $1.12 in 2024, according to FactSet data. The trend is largely attributed to falling agricultural prices. In 2022, U.S. farm net income hit a record $182 billion, with the benchmark price of corn approaching $6 per bushel. By 2024, that price has fallen to an average of $4 per bushel, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects net income to fall to about $140 billion. Lower crop prices mean farmers spend less on tractors and combines.

Nvidia (NVDA.O) forecasted on Wednesday that its revenue growth will slow for the seventh consecutive quarter, as the AI chip manufacturer failed to meet some investors' high expectations, which have made it the most valuable company in the world.

After the company released its earnings report, its stock price fell by 5%, but quickly narrowed its losses, dropping 2.5% in after-hours trading. During regular trading hours, the stock price fell by 0.8%. In Thursday's early trading in Frankfurt, the stock price dropped by 1.9%.

Before the earnings report was released, market expectations for Nvidia were very high, with the stock price rising over 20% in the past two months and hitting an all-time intraday high on Monday. Nvidia's stock price has nearly quadrupled this year, rising more than nine-fold over the past two years, with a market capitalization of $3.6 trillion.

Bitcoin prices are approaching an all-time high of $100,000 as the market is optimistic that President-elect Trump's support for cryptocurrencies heralds a boom in the cryptocurrency market and that the United States will shift to friendly regulation of the cryptocurrency circle instead of its previous harsh crackdown.

Bitcoin, the largest digital asset, rose as much as 3.6% on Thursday and approached $98,000. The entire cryptocurrency market has gained about $900 billion since Trump won the election on November 5.

Trump’s transition team has begun discussing whether to create a position in the White House specifically responsible for digital asset policy. This would be the first such position in the United States and would have direct contact with the president-elect, who is now one of the biggest cheerleaders in the cryptocurrency world.

Mini Program: Daily Investment Bank/Institution View Sorting

Foreign

1. Goldman Sachs: Learn trading from Trump, remember these 'five tips' for next year's US stock trading

Goldman Sachs published (2025 US Stock Market Outlook: The Art of Trading), not only borrowing its name from Trump's first bestseller (The Art of the Deal), but the recommendations provided are also clearly inspired by that book. Goldman Sachs advises investors to remember five points next year: Dare to think; maximize choices; low rents, high stakes; results-oriented; bottom-line thinking. 'Dare to think' refers to the 'seven tech giants,' whose performance in 2025 is expected to surpass other S&P component stocks, but the lead will be the 'smallest' in seven years. Goldman Sachs suggests investors use the 'seven giants' as a benchmark to find opportunities among mid-cap stocks. 'Maximize choices' refers to focusing on a basket of stocks that benefit from mergers and acquisitions. 'Low rents, high stakes' indicates that Trump often manages to transform undervalued properties into high-value development projects. Goldman Sachs expects that as the operating environment improves, small and medium-sized enterprises' optimism and spending will increase in 2025, boosting related companies' revenues and valuations. 'Results-oriented' applies to the AI sector, with Goldman Sachs emphasizing that companies in the 'third stage' of AI development are expected to monetize AI applications, driving actual revenue growth. 'Bottom-line thinking' suggests that investors balance high-growth opportunities with defensive sectors like utilities to ensure resilience against economic shocks.

Insiders at publicly listed U.S. companies are cashing in on the stock market boom following the election. According to VerityData, in the fourth quarter, the ratio of insider sellers to buyers among S&P 500 constituent companies was 23.7 to 1, the highest level since the U.S. first mandated numerical disclosure of insider trading in 2004.

So far, the highest record for this ratio was reached in the second quarter of 2021 at 23.6 to 1. In comparison, the average level since 2004 is slightly below 12 to 1. These data include trades conducted under pre-planned 10b5-1 trading plans.

Mini Program: Daily summary of real estate industry dynamics

1. Hong Kong Financial Services and the Treasury Secretary Christopher Hui: suggests exempting stamp duty on buying and selling REITs.

The Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury of Hong Kong, Christopher Hui, motioned for the second reading of the (2024 Stamp Duty Amendment) Bill at the Legislative Council meeting, stating that to enhance the competitiveness of Hong Kong's REITs and support further market development, he suggested exempting stamp duty on the buying and selling of REITs. This stamp duty proposal, coupled with the earlier announcement by the China Securities Regulatory Commission in April this year to include REITs in the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, will significantly increase the liquidity and attractiveness of Hong Kong's REITs and expand the investor base, greatly supporting the development of the REIT market in Hong Kong.

Mini Program: A review of daily market news in A-shares.

Important News

1. In October, the share of China's renminbi in global payments via Swift was 2.93%, down from 3.61%.

The Global Bank Financial Telecommunications Association (Swift) released its monthly report and data statistics on the renminbi today, showing that in October this year, the renminbi's share in global payment currencies fell to 2.93%, making it the fifth most active currency in the world. Specifically, compared with September, the total payment amount in renminbi decreased by 16.35%, while the total payment amounts of all currencies increased by 3.16%. Swift data also showed that in October this year, in the ranking of payment amounts among major currencies, the US dollar, euro, pound sterling, and yen accounted for 47.04%, 22.90%, 7.31%, and 3.91% respectively.