Do you know why the United States has been dragging its feet and refusing to cut interest rates?
It's not because of any economic data or non-farm payrolls. None of this is important. You have to know that the United States is a financial empire. It makes money not from industry but from capital. It only cares about three things: whether the stock market can rise, whether U.S. debt will explode, and harvest. For these three things, it can invent any data to support whether the Fed should raise or lower interest rates. Now is the Fed's comfort zone. Although the U.S. debt owes 34.7 trillion, most of it is old first-interest debt, so it is still safe for the time being.
The stock market has been rising, inflation has been controlled at 3%, and everything seems to be fine. But his most important goal has not been achieved, which is to beat his opponent to economic collapse and then buy the bottom to reap the benefits. If this goal is achieved, the United States will make a fortune and the problem of U.S. debt will be solved. But what if it cannot be achieved? He can only cut interest rates to protect himself and quit the game.
The opponent that the United States is most concerned about is naturally the Eastern power. The game between the two sides is called hypertension vs. hypoglycemia, that is, inflation vs. deflation. So how to defeat a hypoglycemic? Just suck his blood while not letting him eat. You see, the US interest rate is now over 5%, which is more than 3 points higher than ours. The huge interest rate gap requires countless hot money to flow back to the United States. A lot of domestic capital also chooses to go overseas for profit. Some real estate giants have no way to repay their dollar debts, which has exacerbated the collapse of real estate. Under the superposition of multiple factors, the currency in our market began to dry up, the real estate market and the stock market continued to fall, and a tightening spiral appeared.
On the other hand, the United States has increased restrictions on our exports, trying to make our production capacity unusable and our companies unable to make profits. However, the United States underestimated our resilience. The real estate market collapsed but it did not collapse. The stock market fell, but it did not cause people to jump off buildings. We are under great pressure, but we still have the energy to curse a few times. We do not have to line up to get bread like the US economic crisis. No matter how many export restrictions there are, it cannot change the fact that the US is out of stock while we have goods.
At most, it will increase some transit countries and costs, and the US is running out of time. With the increase of high-interest bonds, the interest expenditure of US Treasury bonds is breaking through 1 trillion US dollars and climbing towards 2 trillion US dollars. The US stock market has overdrawn a lot of gains. If the inflow of hot money slows down, it will be hit by high interest rates.
The U.S. dollar index seems to have rebounded strongly recently, but it is facing the upper pressure of 106-107 and it is difficult to break through in a short time, but it will not surrender easily. In a word, it is making everyone uncomfortable.
The historical wheel of global monetary easing will start turning again. We must cheer up and be ready to welcome the new cycle. $BTC