Amid the ups and downs of cryptocurrency, one central question has always lingered on investors’ minds: Is Bitcoin’s great bull run over, or are we on the threshold of a new bull run? Today, we’re going to take a deeper look at this question.
First of all, let me explain my point of view. I firmly believe that the big bull market of Bitcoin has not actually started yet. Although the current market has experienced a period of sideways and short-term retracement fluctuations, these are just small ripples before the bull market begins.
Market perspective analysis
Recently, more and more people have begun to say that the Bitcoin bull market has peaked, and believe that the highest point of this wave of market is US$74,000, after which the market will enter a period of decline and usher in the next new bear market.
However, this view often comes from investors who lack market experience. Veteran Bitcoin investors (OGs), especially those who have experienced a full cycle of the market, would think that Bitcoin’s current position has already run far ahead of history.
In other words, there is a view that the real big bull run for Bitcoin, the final surge, crazy surge, FOMO-driven rally, is actually still far away. This is why it is believed that the big bull run for Bitcoin has not yet begun.
Bitcoin Historical Cycle Review
Let’s take a look at Bitcoin’s historical performance, as it is one of the oldest assets in the cryptocurrency market and has gone through multiple complete market cycles. It is because of these cycles that we have access to a lot of data and historical trends, which is crucial in predicting what may happen in the future.
First halving:
Let's go back to 2013, when Bitcoin's first block reward halving occurred. Since then, we can use the timing of the halving to estimate the peak price of Bitcoin. Between 2012 and 2013, Bitcoin achieved an astonishing 11,194% increase within 364 days after the halving, or about a year, reaching its peak at the time.
Looking back at the history of Bitcoin halvings, we can see that the cycle from halving to price peaks has gradually lengthened. After the first halving in 2013, Bitcoin took 364 days to reach its peak, an increase of an astonishing 11,194%. After the halving in 2016, it took 525 days, an increase of 2,745%. In the most recent 2020 halving, Bitcoin reached a high of nearly $70,000 after 560 days, an increase of 730%.
The second and third halvings:
After Bitcoin’s second cycle, the block reward halving that occurred in 2016, it took the market 525 days to reach the high of that cycle. During this time, Bitcoin’s price increased by 2,745 percent, showing significant growth.
Then we entered the more familiar 2020 cycle, which was Bitcoin's third block reward halving, also taking place against the backdrop of a global pandemic. It took 560 days from the halving to the price reaching a high of more than $69,000. During this time, Bitcoin's gains reached 730 percentage points, once again proving its strong market performance after the halving.
By observing the past three halving cycles of Bitcoin, we can find an obvious trend: the time interval from the halving to the price reaching the highest point in the cycle is gradually increasing. The first cycle took 364 days, the second cycle took 525 days, and the most recent third cycle took 560 days to reach the peak.
If we extrapolate according to historical trends, the top of this bull market may be around 600 days after the halving, which is December 2025. This coincides with the peak time of the Bitcoin bull market in previous years.
Predictions from different factions
There are two main predictions in the market: one is that Bitcoin will peak in the fourth quarter of the second year after the halving, and the other is that the Bitcoin bull market may end at the end of this year. Judging from the current correction, I personally agree with the first prediction, that is, Bitcoin seems to be more inclined to follow a normal bull market cycle. $BTC
Therefore, if Bitcoin does not go through the current sideways consolidation phase in recent months, but instead rises directly to $100,000 or even higher, then according to some analysts, the price of Bitcoin may soar further to $150,000 or more by the end of this year.
Under such circumstances, the views of some investors, known as the "first-mover camp", predict that this round of Bitcoin bull market may come ahead of schedule, which indicates that the possibility of the end of the bull market has been verified, which means that the bull market cycle may end earlier than expected.
However, given Bitcoin's sideways performance over the past three or four months, many believe that Bitcoin is more likely to be following a normal bull market cycle. If it does develop according to this normal bull market pattern, then Bitcoin is expected to reach its price peak about 600 days after the halving. Therefore, according to this time frame, Bitcoin's bull market peak may come between the end of the third quarter and the fourth quarter of 2025.
DCA Arbitrage Strategy
When analyzing the future trend of Bitcoin, some investors have marked specific price ranges and plan to start implementing DCA (cost-average arbitrage) strategies when the price of Bitcoin reaches above $180,000. The key to this strategy is to buy and sell at predetermined price points to maximize profits.
According to the analysis, the beginning of 2025 may be the best time to start considering DCA arbitrage. Although the current price of Bitcoin is around $61,000, it seems to be some distance away from $100,000, but many investors are still optimistic that Bitcoin will reach this goal before the end of the year.
At the same time, historical data shows that in previous halving cycles, Bitcoin began to rise significantly in the period after the halving. For example, after the third halving, Bitcoin started to rise significantly approximately 168 days later. After the second halving, this time point is 280 days. These data points remind us that there may be some delay in Bitcoin’s post-halving rise.
If we assume that the current cycle is similar to the previous one, then counting from 168 days after the halving, Bitcoin may start its significant rise at the end of September this year, which is the fourth quarter. If the uptrend cycle is shorter, perhaps around 100 to 120 days, then the uptick could begin in August, which means there may be less than two months left from now.
Investor mentality advice
For investors, it is crucial to remain patient. During the period of Bitcoin sideways or correction, do not easily lose confidence or exit the market. Don't flip positions back and forth, speculate on cottages that you don't understand, and leverage contracts, which are more likely to make you lose all your money. In short, remember one sentence, that is, only a continuous DCA investment strategy will help you get rich returns in the bull market.
Ethereum Market Performance
It took Ethereum about 560 days to reach its all-time high after the last halving. If this time frame is used, Ethereum may reach its next top about 600 days after the halving, which is expected to be in the fourth quarter of 2025.
This analytical approach assumes that historical trends will repeat themselves in the future, although market conditions and external factors may be different. However, it provides investors with a time window based on historical data to evaluate and plan their investment strategies.
Overall, as the second largest asset in the cryptocurrency market, Ethereum's performance is also closely watched by many investors, and its historical halving trend is often used as one of the indicators of the overall market sentiment and direction. $ETH
Investment awareness and strategy
In cryptocurrency investment, maintaining a stable mentality and firm belief is the key to earning good returns. Market panic and negative news often trigger irrational selling by investors, but these moments, if we can stay calm, may actually be the best time to enter the market. History has proven that hesitation and worry when Bitcoin prices are low often lead to missing out on subsequent sharp rises.
Many people missed the opportunity to invest in Bitcoin when the price was below $20,000 last year, and now they can only feel regret when the price is between $60,000 and $70,000. This lesson reminds us that in the current market environment, it is crucial to properly manage cash positions and continue to adopt DCA strategies. By investing in batches at different time points, we can accumulate assets during market fluctuations and prepare for the next round of increases.
In addition, we must realize that investors' returns are often limited to their cognitive scope. It is difficult to achieve returns beyond this scope, so continuous learning and improving understanding of the market are important factors for investment success. By adhering to our investment strategy and not being disturbed by short-term market fluctuations, we are more likely to achieve stable asset appreciation in long-term market transactions. #IntroToCopytrading #BTC #ETF #投资策略 #认知
Finally, I would like to ask everyone a question: If you have some idle funds, would you choose to invest in Bitcoin, which is already worth more than $60,000? Feel free to share your thoughts and strategies in the comments section.