The BTC rate has been in local motion since June 25. Range - Fibonacci levels 0.236 and 0.382 from the low on May 1 to the high on June 7.

On June 25 and 26, the price twice came to test the level of 0.382 (rate $62,430), but twice received a reaction from sellers and the daily candles closed with bearish shadows on top. At the same time, the price has gone down yesterday and today and is currently fixed at the volume level of $61,231. Sellers were able to push the price below it and even, at the moment, below $61,000 on the news that the US government sent 3,940 BTC ($241 million), confiscated in the Silk Road case, to Coinbase. 

Right now, the fight between bulls and bears is on the volume level of $61,231. And it can be considered decisive in the chance of continuing the rebound. If the price fixes higher, the next target is the volume level of $62,987.

The structure of daily candles remains uncertain. There is a growth prospect on the four-hour timeframe, but you need to break through $61,231.

On the hourly and lower TFs, the situation can be considered as a potential formation of an “Adam and Eve” reversal pattern. But it is worth talking about the start of its development not before the breakdown of the “neck line”. Which is again the 0.382 Fibonacci level, the rate is $62,430.

The target for working out the pattern will be the volume level of $64,120 and the adjacent 0.5 Fibonacci level (rate of $64,262). These two levels now, if the price reaches them, are key for the chances of the rebound turning into a reversal. On the way to them, in addition to horizontal levels, there are two local downward trend levels. Key - from June 7 (now at $63,864).

The start of working out the reversal scenario is the fixation of the 50 day TF above the EMA (currently $65,624). Next to it there are now two more important resistances - the volume level of $65,892 and the Fibonacci level of 0.618 (rate of $66,095). Any rise to this pool of resistance now is just a rebound in the exhausting range of the global fourth wave that has been going on since March. Even though growth close to these resistances would indicate a breakdown of the downward trend since June 7. A reversal requires more confirmation.