The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has reduced interest rates.

The Central Bank has reduced the policy interest rate by 250 basis points. The new interest rate is 47.5%.

The interest rate reduction was the first in 22 months!

#Faiz #MerkezBankası

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#Bitcoin #BTC #Fed #Faiz

Good evening friends, after #fed left #faiz fixed, the thing I am most curious about is #LKİ (LAIKA) When will binance come or does anyone have an idea when it will come?

Bank of America: Jackson Hole risks hawkishness

Bank of America expects the upcoming #JacksonHole symposium to be a key moment for US rates, with the #Fed Chairman #Powell likely to signal a rate cut in the future while maintaining flexibility. However, risks are shifting towards a more hawkish tone, which could strengthen the USD.

Key Points:
Jackson Hole Focus:
The symposium is expected to be a key event in determining the direction of US rates. Fed Chair Powell is likely to say the next step will be a rate cut, but he will also emphasize flexibility depending on future economic data.

Powell’s Expected Tone:
Powell is expected to avoid taking specific actions, instead keeping all options on the table (“not ruling anything out”). This cautious approach allows the Fed to respond dynamically to changing economic conditions.

Potential Market Impact:
If Powell maintains a balanced approach, the impact on the USD could be limited. However, risks are shifting toward a more hawkish tone, which could lead to higher US interest rates and a stronger USD. Any sign that major rate cuts are off the table could increase risk aversion, leading to further USD strength.
Solution:
BofA sees potential for Fed Chair Powell to adopt a more hawkish tone at his Jackson Hole symposium, focusing on maintaining flexibility in future rate decisions. This could lead to higher US interest rates and a stronger USD, especially if Powell avoids signaling an imminent rate cut or downplays the possibility of major cuts.

What are the market expectations regarding the interest rates of the Central Banks of the leading countries?

Expectations for #faiz cuts by the end of the year

#Fed : 99 basis points ( 69% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming meeting )
ECB(Europe): 58 basis points ( 98% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming meeting )
BoE(UK): 39 basis points ( 78% probability of a change at the upcoming meeting )
BoC(Canada): 75 basis points ( 79% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming meeting )
RBA(Australia): 19 basis points ( 94% probability of a change at the upcoming meeting )
RBNZ(New Zealand): 72 basis points ( 79% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming meeting )
SNB(Switzerland): 51 basis points ( 25 basis point rate cut probability at meeting 70% )

Expectations for rate hikes by year-end:
BoJ (Japan): 7 basis points (97% probability of change at upcoming meeting)

* Where you see a 25 basis point probability, the remaining probability is a 50 basis point cut.

The expectation of a 50 point discount of #fed on November 7th to #faiz seems to be completely off the table.

A 25 point discount is now priced at 97.4%, and the probability of holding steady is priced at 2.6%....
#bitcoin

Citibank says #Fed September 50 basis point cut likely #faiz

The market is currently pricing in a 43% chance of a 50 basis point cut

There is an interesting dynamic this week, with nonfarm payrolls due Friday and the blackout period starting Friday night. If the jobs report is in the mid-range, there won’t be much time for officials to signal that a 50 basis point cut is likely. Of course, they could always resort to leaking their views to the WSJ or someone else.
Citi has already seen enough of a 50 basis point cut to be likely, citing weaker JOLTS than in 2019.

Citi says: "The labor market is softer than before the pandemic, and continues to get softer, according to the July JOLTS report. Job openings fell from 8,184,000 in June (now revised down) to 7,673,000 in July. The ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals fell to 1.1 to 1, below the 1.2 to 1 ratio that prevailed just before the pandemic. The hiring rate rose to a still-low 3.5% from 3.3% as government hiring slowed. The layoff rate remains low at 1.2%, but the labor market appears to be at a turning point with sharper weakness to come. A 50 basis point rate cut is likely in September."

Bank of America predicts no US recession in September and December, #Fed: to cut #faiz

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan spoke on US television over the weekend.

He had a warning for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC):
The Fed is in a position to be careful not to slow down too much
He meant to add spending among consumers:

Well, in our consumer base of 60 million customers who spend every week, what you see is that they've spent at the same rate this year as last year, about 3% so far for July and August. That's half the rate last year at this time. And so the consumer has slowed down. They have money in their accounts, but they're running out a little bit. They're working, they're making money, but if you look at it - they've really slowed down.
BoA analysts predict no US recession, and that they'll cut interest rates by 25 basis points in their September and December meetings.

#Fed to cut #faiz rates by 25 basis points at each of its remaining three policy meetings this year - Reuters poll

92 of 101 economists expect a 25 basis point rate cut next week
65 of 95 economists expect three 25 basis point rate cuts over the rest of the year
54 of 71 economists say the Fed is 'unlikely' to cut 50 basis points at any meeting

On the final front, five other economists believe a 50 basis point rate cut this year is 'very unlikely'. Thirteen, meanwhile, say it is 'likely' and four say it is 'very likely' the Fed will make a big move.

The poll shows a clear expectation that the Fed will cut only 25 basis points at its meeting next week. And for the year itself, there is a stronger belief in three rate cuts after this narrative took hold in August (as seen in the visual above).

We opened four lots of #short at #bitcoin , 56450 - 57500 - 59500 and 63500, and we are waiting, I am waiting for cash in hand for the last shot, that is, the 5th party short transaction. It is thought-provoking that Bitcoin bulls are not hungry after such an aggressive #faiz discount, it should have pierced the resistances by now.

US data will keep markets in check. The most important data to watch will be the US #TÜFE (#Enflasyon ) report due on Wednesday

Marketers may prefer to wait for some major US data in the coming days.

We will get some clues from the US PPI report tomorrow, but the most important thing to watch this week will be the Inflation report due on Wednesday.

Traders have calmed down after last week’s panic but are still pricing in around a 46% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut in September. Given the fears about the labor market and the economy, further confirmation of the disinflation process will prompt traders to call again for a quickening pace of the #Fed to #faiz cuts.

As of now, the #Fed fund #faiz market is pricing that the probability of a "50 basis point" interest rate cut by the Fed in September is 13.5%. This is a strong signal that some see the possibility of a more aggressive rate cut.

The American Central Bank (FED) left the interest rate constant!

💠 FED President Powell will make a statement at 21:30. Powell's statements will be important.
Interest rate cuts are important for the beginning of the bull market in cryptocurrencies. In an environment where inflation figures are improving, we are even closer to this decision...

#faiz #Bitcoin #BTCFOMCWatch #CPIAlert #TopCoinsJune2024 $LUNC $BTC $ETH

Who are like this 😀 🫥❓

#kriptopara #faiz

Especially after the US employment data, the markets exaggerated the possibility of a 50 basis point #faiz cut, and I mentioned this in my videos. The bubble that has formed now has subsided considerably.

As you can see in the picture, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is now priced as 74.5%, while 50 basis points is 25.5%.

The eyes of the #bitcoin and #kripto markets are on interest rates and expectations about when the cuts will start.

The most important issue that draws attention in the cryptocurrency markets this week will be the expected Spot Bitcoin ETF decision. This decision may lead to increased volatility in the markets. Investors should be alert to fake news and be prepared for situations similar to the Matrixport case.

Follow Turkish cryptocurrency exchanges and prices in one place: 21milyon.com

At the beginning of the week, the paperwork completion processes of potential spot Bitcoin ETF issuers and the speeches of Fed members will be followed. On Tuesday, January 9, PancakeSwap's road map will be on the agenda.

While the SEC's spot Bitcoin ETF decision is expected on January 10, important inflation data and unemployment applications regarding the US economy will be published on January 11. These data will give important clues about the status of inflation and the health of the economy.

The rest of the week will monitor US PPI data and unlocking amounts of cryptocurrencies such as APT Coin and CYBER. These developments may affect market activity.

Macroeconomic developments, especially inflation data, will determine the agenda of the week. The emergence of negative data may affect the optimism in the markets before the meeting at the end of the month. Additionally, the Fed's interest policies and the direction of monetary tightening will be closely monitored.#Kriptocutrader #BitcoinDunyamiz #faiz #SEC. #FET

We continue to hold our position of #long that we opened at 58800. Our main target is 67000. After the statements made regarding the discount of #Powell to #faiz , the probability of the markets being positively affected by #kripto seems high.

MUFG Bank: What to Expect from This Week’s #FOMC Minutes and Jackson Hole Symposium?

MUFG emphasizes that this week’s US interest rate and USD movements will largely depend on two critical events: the release of the FOMC minutes from the July 31 meeting and, specifically, the Jackson Hole Symposium, where Chairman #Fed will speak.

Key Points:
FOMC Minutes:

The July 31 FOMC meeting saw Fed Chair Powell openly discuss a rate cut at the next meeting for the first time since ending its tightening policy stance. Powell’s moderate tone led to a 10 basis point drop in the 2-year yield that day, and the minutes ahead are critical to gauging support for a potential rate cut in September. Recent statements from Fed officials, including Fed Chair Goolsbee and San Francisco Fed President Daly, suggest that support for rate cuts is growing amid economic and labor market concerns.

Jackson Hole Symposium:

The title of the symposium is “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.” Powell’s speech at the symposium could be another opportunity for the Fed to signal that it is ready to cut interest rates, especially if it emphasizes the effectiveness of current restrictive policies.

Solution:

MUFG predicts that both the FOMC minutes and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium could provide critical information about whether the Fed is ready to begin cutting rates and could influence US rates and USD movements this week.