There are less than 200 days until BTC production is cut. The halving time of BTC production is expected to be April 25, 2024, when the block reward will drop from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, and the remaining halving time is less than 200 days. The U.S. government avoided a shutdown at the end of September, and the market price rose to US$28,000 in early October; last weekend, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East resumed, U.S. stocks and the market fell, while gold and oil rose, and there are always surprises in the risk of gold. Is there a halving bull market? Before halving? After halving? Back to business: The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority has promised to take swift action if cryptocurrency companies breach new promotion rules. Stricter financial promotion rules apply to cryptocurrencies from October 8. Xu Zhengyu, Hong Kong Treasury Bureau: If NFT has the nature of "collective investment" or "securities", it must obtain permission from the Securities and Exchange Commission before it can be sold publicly. If it is a collection that exists only in digital form, it is not subject to regulation by the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is preparing a public consultation on stablecoin regulation. Cryptocurrency research firm Ecoinometrics: The difference between buying BTC and ETH in a bull or bear market is negligible. The price behavior of BTC and ETH is very similar, whether in optimistic or depressed markets. Ethereum core developer eric.eth said that Lido’s pledged ETH ratio reached 33%, which does not mean that ETH is in trouble. While this is not good, the premise for the bad outcome is that Lido's 30+ node operators colluded with each other and ruined their own businesses. Even so, the social layer can step in and fork out malicious Lido node operators and move onto a new chain. The supply of ETH has increased by nearly 30,000 in the past 30 days, and the current average network transaction fee is 7gwei, or $0.24. Santiment data shows that more than 10,000 BTC flowed out of the exchange, which was the largest exchange outflow day since September 7. Jefferies, a world-renowned investment bank, is the latest entity to recognize BTC as a "key hedging tool." In a recent report to investors, Jefferies emphasized that the unique qualities of BTC make it a reliable means of fighting inflation, and Gold is at the same level. Investment research firm ByteTree raised the market signal for BTC from neutral to bullish. BTC’s recent movements have provided a safe haven from the chaos of stock and bond trading during a difficult period for traditional financial markets. When interest rates peak and the bond sell-off ends, BTC will take off.If it can maintain the level of $25,000, it is very likely to be in a relatively calm bull market. Robby, co-founder of crypto asset trader Reku, said that in the third quarter of 2023, BTC dominance was 50.16%, up from 47% in the previous quarter. Medium and long-term investors continue to accumulate BTC, especially in preparation for the halving. Therefore, for novice investors, the fourth quarter of 2023 is the best time to start leveraging a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy before prices rise further. At the end of September, the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate passed resolutions to avoid a shutdown, and in early October the pie topped $28,000 several times. Last weekend, regional conflicts resumed, and the pie was temporarily suppressed. Among geopolitical risks, U.S. stocks and market prices fell, while gold and crude oil rose. Jinrong Risk always has unexpected events that appear in unexpected ways. The U.S. unemployment rate in September was 3.8%, higher than the expected 3.7% and unchanged from the previous value of 3.8%; non-farm employment was 336,000, far exceeding the expected 170,000 and the previous value of 187,000, but wage growth is slowing. Fed Daley said: The slowdown in wage growth is a glimmer of hope in the latest report and will be welcomed by the Fed. The recent surge in U.S. bond yields has reduced the need for another interest rate hike. The recent tightening in the bond market is equivalent to about one interest rate hike. In the past eight Fed tightening cycles, whether followed by a recession or a soft landing, Treasury yields fell an average of 100 basis points after the last rate hike (currently, the 10-year Treasury yield is close to 5%). Yesterday, the Federal Reserve's Fixed Rate Repurchase Facility (RRP) accepted US$1.283 trillion. Last year, the RRP reached as high as US$2.5 trillion. It remained above US$2 trillion at the beginning of the year and remained at around US$1.5 trillion last month. 10 It has dropped to around US$1.2 trillion in March, and most of the reduction went to take over U.S. debt. After the interest rate hikes stopped, U.S. bond yields fell, and then flowed out to the risk market to take over U.S. stocks/big pie, etc. There are less than 200 days left for the BTC production halving. CZ, CEO of Bn, shared the experience of the past three halvings: In the months before the BTC halving (from now on), there will be more and more anxiety, hype, hope, etc.; after the halving, the BTC price will not Doubling overnight, BTC prices hit multiple all-time highs a year after the halving. The old man’s personal experience is that from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year, the market begins to rise, undergoes a correction (the benefits of the halving are realized), and then becomes a real bull market.There are many "greedy" people, flocking to them, causing the pie to rise before the halving. Attracted by the "million times" of the pie in the first halving cycle, the amplitude of the second, third, and fourth cycles gradually decreases. The trend remains unchanged, and greed drives speculators and investors to participate in the feast. The matching stories are the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and interest rate cuts/the soft landing of the U.S. economy (the GDP in the third quarter is expected to be as high as 4.9%)/the S&P 500 stock index breaking new records when interest rates are cut. Gao Gao, the recession is positioned in the story as the Fed cutting interest rates to rescue the market. Looking back at the cyclical nature of the big pie and the cyclical nature of the Fed's interest rate hikes/cuts, the story needs to be told completely to make sure that some participants have experienced the first half of this cycle. The old man will not miss the second half because of the big pie cycle. In the second half, the Fed's interest rate cuts often trigger bull markets.
#带你看看币安Launchpad #美联储是否加息? #一起来跟单