Today is 2023.10.17, and the current price of Bitcoin is $28,460! There are still 190 days until Bitcoin’s fourth halving! We have now reached the final stage of the bear market, the junction of the bear market and the bull market! Next, I will share some personal experiences in the currency circle, as well as a detailed sharing of the entire environment and the current stage. Of course, I will also conduct a detailed analysis of the upcoming bull market and the reasons that may trigger a super bull market! In December 2019, I came to the currency circle. A certain project and platform brought me to the currency circle. I won’t tell you which project or platform it was, because it has already closed down! I had nothing to do that day, so I browsed various groups to see what was new. I saw someone posted a link in the group, so I clicked on it and found out it was a project. Then I joined What a scam, you can earn points in this project, and the points can be converted into coins, and this coin is listed on the exchange and can be cashed out! Through this project, I came to the currency circle, but this project and the exchange no longer exist! When I first entered the currency circle, I didn’t understand anything. When I opened the exchange, I saw a variety of currencies. I watched them rise and fall every day. I was very curious and thought this was an opportunity to make money. In order to comprehensively engage in I understand this industry, so I continue to learn relevant knowledge! It was at that time that Bitcoin really appeared in front of my eyes, and I was really exposed to Bitcoin! Regarding Bitcoin, I had only heard about it in the news before, just by its name. I knew nothing about its price or development history! When I first entered the industry, I was a complete novice, and the price of Bitcoin at that time was only a few thousand dollars! Although it was very cheap, because I didn’t understand anything, I didn’t dare to touch it. Naturally, I missed the big bull market after the 2020 halving! On May 12, 2020, Bitcoin underwent its third halving. In September of the same year, the market began to accelerate its rise. One afternoon, it was reported on the Internet that Tesla began to accept Bitcoin payments, and then Bitcoin skyrocketed, with an increase of more than 10%. This news started a new round of Bitcoin explosion, and it skyrocketed until it exceeded 60,000 US dollars. close! On March 12, 2021, everyone in the currency circle knows that 312 is a special day. Every time 312 is mentioned, it is shocking and tragic, and the currency circle is red!Then on May 19th, it was another special day. Bitcoin began to plummet from around $59,000, and the ground was full of chickens and mourners! In July, the market picked up and started to skyrocket again, from US$28,800 back to US$60,000, reaching a maximum of US$69,040.1, which is the highest point of this bull market! In this round of bull market, there is of course a lot of good news. To summarize, it includes: the Federal Reserve is releasing money, Tesla accepts Bitcoin payment, Musk purchases Bitcoin, the Bitcoin futures ETF is approved, and the largest exchange in the United States, Coinbase, is listed. Waiting for listing! In November 2021, this bull market ended and a long bear market began. Bitcoin started a downward trend from its highest point of $69,040.1, falling all the way! When I fully understood this industry, from a new leek to an old leek, and gained a new understanding of this industry, the market has entered a bear market! You have completely missed this bull market! In this long bear market, the market is unpredictable, jumping up and down. From time to time, there will be a big negative or black swan, such as the collapse of LUNA, the liquidation of Sanjian Capital, the liquidation of Meitu, the decoupling of stETH, the Fed's interest rate hike, and FTX trading. There are too many bankruptcies, SEC lawsuits against Bianace and Coinbase, etc.! The current market is in the final stage of the bear market. The most difficult part has passed. There is no particularly big negative or black swan. What we have to do now is to lay out the bear market layout. Only the bull market has chips! A few days ago, I watched a lot of live broadcasts by so-called big guys or big Vs. While they were analyzing the market, they also led everyone to make orders. They said it was going to fall, where to open short, where to take profit and stop loss, and so on. I want to be like a god and be able to predict the future, but I still want to go short at this stage. I really don’t know who gave me the courage! There was an anchor who was still placing orders live in the live broadcast room. I remember that night, he took an order to short Ethereum. Ethereum opened a short order at $1,552. After placing the order, he thought he had a winning ticket and kept bragging about analyzing the market! As a result, Ethereum rose to 1554 US dollars, and he became nervous after only two points, and then rose to 1558 US dollars. Now he stopped blowing, and quickly pulled the K line to take a look, and stopped talking. Then it rose to 1560 US dollars, and the order was not given. After watching it, he became serious and silently watched the K-line. Finally, the small market trend of Ethereum came, and a small positive line rose from the ground. Finally, he stopped the loss. He lost money with the live broadcast order and lost his face!In 2021 and 2022, I give you two years of time. Isn’t it enough? Even if it continues to fall, there is not much room left. It has been falling for more than two years, and it has almost fallen. In the final stage of the bear market, the market may reverse at any time! Therefore, even if it is going to fall, be bearish rather than shorting, go long on dips, and focus on long! Why is it best not to go short in the final stage of a bear market and focus on long positions? Because the benefits are good and the future is promising! These benefits may be the engine of the next bull market! Next, let’s take a look at the benefits and analyze them in detail! 1. The SEC lost two lawsuits because it suspected that XRP was a security. The US SEC sued Ripple and took Ripple to court. In the end, Ripple won the lawsuit that XRP was not a security and the SEC lost! Grayscale applied to the SEC many times to convert GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF, but was rejected many times, so Grayscale sued the SEC. In the end, Grayscale won, but the SEC did not appeal against Grayscale’s ruling, and the SEC lost again! The SEC failed twice, which is good for the currency circle and paved the way for the passage of the Bitcoin spot ETF! 2. The end of the interest rate hike cycle. In the past two years, the Federal Reserve has continued to raise interest rates, and inflation has also slowed down. It is now at the end of the interest rate hike cycle. Although the market predicts that there will be one last interest rate hike, is there such a thing? It doesn’t matter the last time, it won’t have much impact! According to the news from the past few days, the interest rate hike cycle is over. The next step is to maintain high interest rates for a long period of time and start cutting interest rates next year! The interest rate cut will release a lot of money, which will greatly benefit the currency circle! 3. Bitcoin’s Halving Bitcoin’s fourth halving will be in April next year. There are currently 190 days until the halving. At that time, the Bitcoin block reward will be halved. After the halving, there will be little selling pressure on Bitcoin. Yes, the price will naturally go up! 4. The U.S. presidential election is a very important matter. The presidential election needs to be in a loose environment, and this loose environment is also beneficial to the currency circle. With the influx of funds, it is difficult for currency prices not to rise. ! 5. Development of Bitcoin Inscription Ecology Ethereum has its own ecology, and so does Bitcoin of course. The BRC20 track is a new thing. It was born in the bear market and will inevitably explode in the bull market, which is conducive to the prosperity and development of the Bitcoin ecology!6. Approval of Bitcoin spot ETF Currently, many large institutions are applying to the SEC for Bitcoin spot ETF. Although the SEC has postponed it many times, they did not give up the application, but continued to submit the application after modification! At present, the SEC will make a decision, whether to approve or reject, in January next year at the latest. It cannot be postponed any longer! The market prediction will most likely come true, it’s just a matter of time! Last night, it was reported on the Internet that the SEC approved the BlackRock spot ETF. At that time, Bitcoin soared and exceeded the $30,000 mark. This shows how beneficial the Bitcoin spot ETF is! Of course, in addition to the above 6 positive points, there are other benefits that I won’t go into. These benefits are the catalysts or engines of the bull market in 2024-2025! Therefore, I am personally optimistic about the next market trend. I will be bearish but not short. I will focus on longs, plan for dips, and accumulate more chips. Only then can the bull market achieve results! In the above content, the first part is about my experience in joining the industry, the middle part is about what I saw and heard in the long bear market, and the latter part is about my analysis of the general environment and the possible benefits of the next bull market! The full text is more than 7,600 words long. It took me several hours to type it out word for word. It is my original article! Finally, I wish you all to accumulate food in the bear market and make a fortune in the bull market! The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice! Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the market! #公链生态 #etf #注意资金安全 #BTC