Statistical Bias:

Those who have read the recent tweet on unfinished auctions, here's a couple stats to go alongside.

Of revisits, 84% of unfinished auction highs and 67% of unfinished auction low were revisited within the next four sessions.

This is from the year of 2024.
#BinanceTournament #BTCFOMCWatch

🚨 BREAKING 🚨

🇵🇾 PARAGUAY PLANS TO SELL
EXCESS HYDRO-ELECTRIC POWER
TO BITCOIN MINERS AS PART OF
ITS NEW ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
STRATEGY.

THIS IS GIGA BULLISH 🔥
#Binance200M #ETHETFsApproved

Cluster Charts :

This is when data can be aggregated into group sizes based on tick size. The order flow data can include volume, delta, etc.

As price extends past 2nd to last cluster, a new cluster is formed yet not fully filled, forming a cluster extension.
#Binance55thProject(IO)
#ETHETFsApproved

The Economics We Learn In School:

If the Fed hikes rates, monetary policy will be restrictive leading to lower lending, excess liquidity drawn out due to higher interest rates on credit and mortgages.

This would lead to lower consumer purchasing power, companies begin restructuring, unemployment rises, sales revenue falls, prices fall, and inflation drops to the central bank target.

Real Life:

Fed hikes rates from 0.1% to 5.5% in under two years, consumer purchasing power goes a notch higher even though a lot of households max out their credit cards, unemployment drops to record lows, the stock market hits all-time highs, and the dollar drives other currencies to record lows. Yield curve inverts for over a year, failing banks get bailouts, commercial real estate books tank, nothing happens, and a company with under $80 billion in annual revenue adds $2 trillion in valuation as investors price in future revenue 🥶.

Should we redefine economics?

#Binance55thProject(IO) #BnbAth

How to identify “Swing Points”

1. Pivot points represent the start or end of a new trend.

2. Swing points are used to identify support and resistance.

3. Swing high and low can be used to identify trend directions.
#Binance55thProject(IO) #BnbAth

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE):

The point within a winning trade where you were in the most amount of drawdown.

Analysing and recording the MAE of each of your trades can help with...

Timing the execution of your trades better.
Adjusting SL to increase overall R.

Example...
#BnbAth #altcoins

BITCOIN PRICE UPDATE 🚨 
 
- Forming a similar fractal as December 2023
 
- Capitulated below the major support level
 
- 96 days of consolidation seem to be over
 
With Bitcoin ETFs having record inflows, it seems like BTC could soon make a new ATH.
#BnbAth #btc70k #StartInvestingInCrypto

Directional Bias :

Example of the morning reversal of 08:00-09:00 mentioned previously, and how to plan.

Reminder this stat has an average of 85% fill rate.

Making sure to mark out the levels and create local bias to where price can head throughout the day if not yet hit.
#btc70k #StartInvestingInCrypto

Aggregating ticks in the DOM :

In low volume environments such as weekends, it'[s better to increase the tick size you are using on the DOM as may create too much noise with so many low volume orders separated.

Here's why and when you should aggregate orders by increasing tick.

We’re watching a breakout of a 5-year wedge against liquidity.

A literal first for #Bitcoin   . Expectations based on extrapolating from the past may underestimate.
#Megadrop #btc70k

You're looking at the first breakout of #Bitcoin    against M1 money supply since March 2017 when it went historically parabolic for 9 months.
#Megadrop

Stock-to-Flow model simplified: ALL bitcoin gain (and more) has been around halvings!

- green line = buy 6 months before halving, sell 18 months after
- red line = buy 18 months after halving, sell 6 months before
- blue line = green line + red line = buy & hold BTC

#Megadrop Exactly 5 years ago today, Nayib Bukele took the Oath of Office, becoming President of El Salvador.

Ever since, the country has been a world leader – a beacon of freedom, safety, and innovation.

The 1st #Bitcoin    President 🧡

#BITCOIN    BREAK OUT IS LOADING

PRICE IS CONSOLIDATING WITHIN
THIS SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE IN
THE LOWER TIMEFRAME.

PRAY FOR THE PUMP TO $80K

On track for $1m per BTC as "fair value" by 2035.

That's if we take the user growth curve as a guide for valuation. Remember I said fair value and not peak value in bull market hype.

- In the early days price was slow to catch up to user count, BTC didn't even have a price until the 1000th user came in. Thanks to the blockchain we have a high resolution view of users using forensic clustering of addresses into entities.

- Price discovery started with early markets like New Liberty #BTC Standard and MtGox. By Aug 2011 Bitstamp launched and we had multiple global exchanges to properly price the asset. [shaded region]

- After 2012 price pretty much oscillated around the increasing user count.$

Bitcoin April closing price $60,632
This was the last blue dot (month 0). Average price 2020-2024 halving cycle $34k (slightly below S2F 2019 $55k prediction). May will be the first red dot, the start of the new countdown to the next halving (S2F 2024-2028 prediction: ~$500k).

Bitcoin April closing price $60,632
This was the last blue dot (month 0). Average price 2020-2024 halving cycle $34k (slightly below S2F 2019 $55k prediction). May will be the first red dot, the start of the new countdown to the next halving (S2F 2024-2028 prediction: ~$500k).

#Bitcoin   

short-timeframe move up looks strong and good.

We are entering a critical zone now - two important resistances to reclaim are

a) Point of Control @ 67k
b) ascending trendline

#Bitcoin   

this is a potential roadmap for the current cycle. As we stated before, we believe we are in a mid-term correction right now that could take us to mid-/low 50ks.

The rest of the year should lead to another pump fueld by continued institutional buying, halving itself and continued adoption.

Summer times are usually boring and sideways / correction months. Q4 should once more be a very strong quarter, potentially lifting uns above 100k.

Good times ahead. Don't get discouraged by pullbacks. These are normal and necessary for a healthy chart.

Happy bitcoin halving! (stock-to-flow doubling):
- in the 6 months before the halving, insiders frontrun it: price 2x
- in the 6 months after the halving, miner revenue adjusts: price 2x
- 6-18m after the halving, the rest of the market rushes to get a piece of the pie: price 4x

#bitcoinhalving