'Mother' recession indicator Sahm Rule: The Fed is 'playing with fire' by not cutting interest rates right now.
According to economist Claudia Sahm, the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) failure to cut interest rates right now risks weakening the economy.

Claudia Sahm is the author of a time-tested rule for determining when a recession occurs. She points out that when the three-month average unemployment rate is more than half a percentage point above the 12-month low, the economy is in recession.

As the unemployment rate has risen in recent months, the “Sahm Rule” has left Wall Street buzzing that the strong labor market is starting to show cracks and bring with it potential trouble. . That has created speculation about when the Fed will start cutting interest rates.

Ms. Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors, said the central bank is running a big risk by not gradually cutting interest rates now. A potential recession could force policymakers to act more aggressively.

The economist noted her indicators do not yet indicate a recession, but it is a risk. “I don't know what they're waiting for,” she said, noting that the worst possible scenario is that the Fed creates an unnecessary recession.

She commented that inflation has decreased a lot. Although the target has not been reached, inflation is moving in the right direction, while unemployment is moving in the wrong direction. “The closer we get to the danger zone in the labor market, the farther we get from the danger zone of inflation. So what the Fed needs to do is quite clear." - CNBC
BTC

Altcoins sold off in panic as South Korea inspected 600 tokens after implementing virtual assets law.

According to Korean media, exchanges will inspect 600 listed tokens after the virtual assets law takes effect next month. This panic may have caused the prices of many altcoins to plummet.

Ahead of the implementation of the law to protect users of virtual assets next month, many baseless rumors about the "delisting" of altcoins have caused a series of altcoins to plummet in price.

News that from next month, financial authorities will inspect 600 virtual assets in South Korea every quarter to stop trading of tokens that do not meet standards has led to a mass sell-off due to investor concerns. private.

On June 18, according to the virtual asset industry, on coin communities and social networks, a list of “tokens likely to be delisted in June” appeared, with 16 altcoins mentioned. This has caused the prices of coins listed on Upbit's Won market to decrease by 10-20%.

A representative of a won exchange in Korea said that checking listing standards is not new but has been done before, and the possibility of mass delisting is very low.

South Korea's Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) has warned that many altcoin investors invest without complete information about the coin, stressing that investors should be well aware of the risk factors before investing. private.

America firmly holds the position of No. 1 power in the world, its ambition to de-dollarize has been 'dumped with cold water'.

While there are many calls to diversify to escape dependence on the USD, the US is the destination for 1/3 of all cross-border investments. According to the IMF, America's share in global capital flows has increased, not decreased. From 18% before the epidemic, the US has increased to more than 30%.

Parties wanting to overthrow the dominance of the USD face a huge obstacle: US interest rates have pushed to their highest level in decades, making it impossible for foreign investors to deny the appeal of the USD. Under Joe Biden, clean energy and semiconductor development initiatives help the world's No. 1 economy attract completely new FDI investment capital flows worth billions of dollars.

Global capital flows completely reversed. If before the pandemic, the destination was emerging markets (in which China grew rapidly), then currently, America's geopolitical rival has seen its capital flow drop by half.

The story will change again. Trump pledged to reverse key elements of Joe Bien's economic policies, while the Fed signaled it would begin lowering interest rates later this year. If these plans come true, the advantage of the US and the USD will no longer exist.

Some experts warn that the US cannot avoid the "fiscal cliff", a serious budget deficit and that the US Government will have to act immediately or else it will fall into crisis. This also affects the "safe haven" reputation that US Treasury Bonds have long possessed.

BTC

'Removing' the USD, BRICS has accelerated: China and Russia can 'powerfully influence' the G7, forcing the US to act. After BRICS saw Russia receive new sanctions, it seems the US is considering imposing sanctions on China.
A report from the Financial Times noted that China's support for Moscow is a “long-term threat” to the security of the G7.

Following sanctions on Russia in recent weeks, another BRICS country could become a new target: China, according to Watcher.guru. It is known that the West is probably debating sanctions against China in the context of the country's cooperation with Moscow and BRICS promoting de-dollarization efforts.

Russia responded to increased sanctions from the US Treasury Department by stepping up its move to scrap the dollar this week. Specifically, the Moscow Stock Exchange has temporarily suspended trading in USD and Euro.

The BRICS alliance has not been shy about its stance on the US and the USD. They have been trying to increase the use of local currencies and recently signed a landmark trade deal to boost those currencies.

The G7 group is said to be concerned about China "supporting" Russia in the context of the country's conflict with Ukraine. This topic will likely be discussed during the G7 Summit in Puglia (Italy).

While the world currency war is fierce, digital currency BTC is the focus of the 2024 US presidential election page.
#btc

How much does it cost to mine 1 BTC?
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, said the current cost of mining Bitcoin with Antminer S19 XPs is about $40,000. However, this number will soon increase to $80,000 after the halving in April 2024.

Joe Downie - Marketing Director of cryptocurrency mining service company NiceHash said that mining companies' profits depend on the quality and performance of Bitcoin miners, not the size of the farm. Ethan Vera - CEO of digital currency mining service provider Luxor Technology estimates that about 600,000 S19 series Bitcoin miners in the US have been sold to other places such as Africa and South America. While these devices can still be profitable, they are not affordable in the US.

According to Bloomberg, S19 machines cost 7,030 USD. Instead of selling miners cheaply, some American miners choose to move equipment to areas with lower electricity costs and third-party data centers.

Meanwhile, Laurent Benayoun - CEO of hedge fund Acheron Trading said that Bitcoin mining profits will not decrease after the halving. The decrease in mining rewards will be offset by an increase in transaction fees (Bitcoin network fees). He also predicts fewer mining companies will go out of business this time than in previous cycles.
#btc

Threatening both the USD and the SWIFT payment system, could BRICS create a 'financial storm'?

BRICS expansion not only adds more members but also represents a change in the global balance of power. This alliance is challenging the dollar's long-standing dominance in international transactions. This caused a financial storm, especially for the US and the SWIFT payment system. The growing influence of BRICS is seen as poised to reshape global financial dynamics.

The move to make cross-border payments in local currencies instead of USD could significantly reduce the volume of global SWIFT transactions.

Egypt holds control of the Suez Canal and possesses abundant natural gas reserves, adding an important strategic dimension to BRICS+.

Ethiopia, despite its economic challenges, makes a significant contribution thanks to its abundant water resources and agricultural output. Iran is a country that plays an important role in global energy policy thanks to its oil and natural gas reserves - thereby helping to strengthen BRICS' position in the global energy market.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are both major oil producers, which not only brings economic strength but also signifies a shift in traditional alliances and shows a trend toward autonomy. , away from Western influence.

BRICS+ currently accounts for a significant portion of global population, land area, oil output and GDP.
This is a sign of the desire to create a polycentric world order, away from a unipolar world dominated by Western powers.
BTC

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has reduced the proposed fine for Ripple from $2 billion to $102.6 million, according to a legal document dated June 14, 2024, shared by defense attorney James Filan.

The latest development comes a day after Ripple filed a notice of additional jurisdiction, arguing that the $2 billion penalty requested by the SEC was unreasonable. The company cited the Terraform Labs case and previous SEC settlements as benchmarks for a reasonable fine. Terraform reached a $4.5 billion settlement with the SEC on Thursday.

The legal battle between the SEC and Ripple has been going on since December 2020, when the SEC alleged that XRP, Ripple's affiliated token, is an unregistered security.

Although a judge ruled in July 2023 that XRP was not a security in a programmatic sale and the SEC dropped charges against Ripple executives, the lawsuit against Ripple is still ongoing and a trial date has yet to be determined.
#xrp

Warren Buffett - Legend from Omaha said:
“Whether it's clothes or stocks, you should only buy when there's a sale.”
For me, crypto is the same.

Saudi Arabia shocked everyone when it moved to abandon the petrodollar. What has happened recently shows that Saudi Arabia is changing its approach towards the US.

Recently, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud announced that he will not attend the 50th G7 summit, scheduled to be held in Brindisi (Italy) on June 13-15. This was reported by Saudi Arabia's state news agency SPA, about a serious change in relations between Riyadh and the West.

It should be noted that on June 9, 2024, the 50-year security agreement between Saudi Arabia and the United States, signed on June 8, 1974, expired, one of the rules of which was the sale of oil and other Other goods are exclusively paid for in US dollars.

As a first step, Riyadh announced its participation in the mBridge international project, using the digital currency platform of several central banks used by commercial banks and some global institutions.

The system is built on distributed ledger technology to enable instant settlement of cross-border payments and foreign exchange transactions. The project has more than 26 observers including: Bank of Israel/Namibia/France, Central Bank of Bahrain/Egypt/Jordan. Besides, there are other "big guys" and some other financial institutions. of which the South African Reserve Bank was allowed to become a permanent member this month".

The mBridge project is the result of an extensive collaboration that started in 2021 between the Innovation Center of the Bank for International Settlements, the Bank of Thailand, the UAE Central Bank, the People's Bank Digital Currency Institute China and Hong Kong Bank. The first transaction was carried out in 2022.

According to Bizcommunity

IMF: The US dollar is 'silently eroding' amid the de-dollarization trend, what is the biggest 'risk' for the greenback?

Global central banks have reduced the US dollar share of their foreign exchange reserves over the past two decades. The US dollar still dominates foreign exchange reserves, but the proportion has dropped from 70% in 2000 to about 55% in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the IMF.

Banks "gradually shifted" away from the dollar, the proportion of "non-traditional reserve currencies" increased. These include the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Chinese Yuan, Korean won, Singapore dollar and Nordic currencies.

The report was released in the context that the issue of de-dollarization is being hotly discussed.
As part of the sanctions, the West excluded Russia from the global financial system (SWIFT) after the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out. Other countries are now concerned that they too could be excluded from the system.

Even so, analysts recently said there are still other concerns that could erode confidence in the greenback. Financial Times “American dysfunction” – political and financial – is the real threat to dollar dominance.

Jared Cohen, president of global affairs at Goldman Sachs, acknowledged there is a movement toward de-dollarization but the time to change the global financial system to be based on the U.S. dollar is still a long way off.
However, Mr. Cohen warned that the dollar's supremacy should not be taken for granted, developments in the US, could erode confidence in the greenback.

US stocks set a record for four consecutive sessions thanks to weaker inflation and firm crude oil prices.

The US stock market rallied in the trading session on Thursday (June 13), with the S&P 500 index setting a record for the fourth consecutive session, in the context of investors having more statistical data showing that Inflationary pressures may be decreasing. Expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is about to cut interest rates have helped crude oil prices maintain their recovery this week.

“At this point, the possibility of the Fed increasing interest rates can be ruled out. This will support stock valuation. Our main scenario now is that the stock market will maintain a slow upward trend," portfolio manager Zachary Hill of Horizon Investments commented to CNBC news agency.

Despite the Fed's tough statement on interest rates, market bets on the possibility of the Fed starting to cut interest rates in September are increasing. According to data from CME's FedWatch Tool, the market is betting on a 60.5% chance of the Fed lowering interest rates in September.

“The Fed is tough, but they will act based on economic data. Today's PPI data showed improvement, and the market believes that the Fed may change its toughness soon if inflation data continues to improve," Carson chief strategist Ryan Detrick said. Group commented to Reuters news agency.

“After the recent strong increase, the market is slowing down. We call this the calm after the storm, the market is accumulating after the big increases recorded in the first half of June," Mr. Detrick said.

What is Crypto? Cryptocurrency, commonly known as Crypto or electronic money, is a form of digital currency that uses cryptography to securely transact financial transactions, control the creation of new units, and verify the transfer of assets. It operates on decentralized networks called Blockchain, which are public ledgers maintained by a network of computers.

Crypto has 5 outstanding characteristics: decentralization, digitization, peer-to-peer, anonymity and globality.

Unlike traditional government-issued fiat currencies, cryptocurrencies are not controlled by any central authority. Instead, they rely on cryptographic principles to secure transactions and govern the creation of new units.

At the heart of Crypto is the concept of decentralization. Instead of relying on central banks or governments, cryptocurrencies use consensus mechanisms, such as proof of transaction or proof of stake, to authenticate and record transactions on the Blockchain.

This decentralized nature ensures transparency, immutability, and security in the face of government censorship or manipulation.

Crypto is emerging as a revolutionary concept, changing the way we perceive and interact with money. It has disrupted traditional financial systems, providing individuals with greater control over their assets, increased security, and the potential for fast, low-cost transactions.

Talking to the Financial Times newspaper, Ms. Gargi Chaudhuri - head of iShares Investment Strategy Americas of giant asset management company BlackRock - said that the "dot-plot" forecast shows that the Fed will only have one interest rate cut. this year has not changed her expectations about the Fed's strategy.

“I think they are still open to cutting interest rates in September if they continue to see progress in the inflation situation. The Fed will continue not to overreact to any single data point, even to the newly released CPI data,” Ms. Chaudhuri said.

The fact that the Fed is expected to reduce interest rates only once this year is seen as an obstacle for President Joe Biden, who has made economic issues and anti-inflation efforts a focus of his re-election campaign. If the Fed really only has one interest rate cut this year, that cut will most likely take place in December, after the US completes the presidential election in November.

US CPI is weaker than forecast, the possibility of the Fed lowering interest rates increases

The US consumer price index (CPI) did not increase in May, showing that the "pincer" of inflation has eased on the world's largest economy. The possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates in September has also increased...

A report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor on June 12 showed that CPI - a measure of the price of a basket of goods and services in the economy - was flat in May compared to April, but increased. 3.3% over the same period last year. Previously, in a survey by Dow Jones news agency, experts forecast that CPI would increase by 0.1% this month and increase by 3.4% over the same period in 2023.

Core CPI, an index excluding energy and food prices, increased 0.2% compared to April and increased 3.4% compared to the same period last year, both 0.1 percentage points lower than expected. Corresponding reports are 0.3% and 3.5% respectively.

“Finally, there was positive optimism, with both headline and core inflation lower than forecast. Inflationary pressure at gas stations has been relieved, but house prices continue to increase and are the main cause of inflation. Until housing prices start to fall, there will be no sharp decline in inflation," said economist Robert Frick of Navy Federal Credit Union.
#btc

$W Almost everyone knows DCA stands for Dollar Cost Averaging - meaning average dollar price. Many people talk about buying dca when the price drops, for me selling dca when the price increases is a better thing.

My shopping cart has few coins, of which 4 coins BTC, ETH, DOGE, W account for the largest proportion. For this W, when the price trend increases, I sell each order by 10%. Although a series of information and analyzes suggest that this coin will surpass the price range of 0.777-1-1.2, I do not wait. When I pass the capital recovery level, I adjust the selling price and finally leave 20% for the optimistic price range.

In any market, no one is 100% correct except the creators. I gather information and have my own opinions, but I know that retail investors are just chess pieces. So even though I believe it will surpass 1.2, I still set the selling price from 0.65.

Comments are often MM tools. MMs decide based on the total number of pieces. They provide trends based on gross profit. Especially with Wormhole, MM seems to interfere too much. Anyone who holds it will notice this intervention because it is relatively obvious 🥹.

This is my personal method that I share in the hope that it will be useful to someone.

Is the USD still "king"?

The decreasing trend of the USD proportion in global foreign exchange reserves may soon stop, or even reverse...

After two decades of the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves gradually falling below 60%, economic, financial and geopolitical factors are starting to converge to at least temporarily halt this trend for the foreseeable future. in the next few years and may even reverse - according to an article by Reuters news agency.

The rise of the euro and China's rise to the world's second largest economy have weakened the USD's reserve currency status. In addition, the desire to diversify foreign exchange reserves is another factor that may prevent the greenback from ever regaining its former absolute power.

However, according to OMFIF's “Global Public Investor 2024” survey, with the participation of 73 central banks holding foreign exchange reserves totaling $5.4 trillion, there is a net ratio of 18 % of foreign exchange managers said they plan to increase USD reserves in the next 12-24 months. This is two and a half times higher than the number giving the same answer for the second-placed currency, the euro.

Besides, cyclical factors are increasingly favoring the USD, including relatively high economic growth and profit margins in the US compared to other developed economies, and This trend is likely to maintain in the next 2 years.

The fight against global inflation is reaching its final stage.
In most major economies in the world, policy interest rates are significantly higher than the inflation rate, meaning there is room to cut interest rates...
Major central banks around the world have begun lowering interest rates as inflation has fallen significantly in many countries after reaching a multi-decade peak two years ago. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Canada (BOC) became the first two central banks in the group of 7 developed industries (G7) to cut interest rates.

However, at the regular monetary policy meeting taking place on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged because inflationary pressures in the US seem to more persistent than in other major economies. The market is predicting that the Fed will not start lowering interest rates until November and there will only be one reduction this year.

The hasty interest rate hike campaign that central banks launched in 2023-2024 has slowed down the rate of price escalation, after inflation continued to accelerate as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. with supply chains and due to the Russia-Ukraine war.

In general, inflation rates in developed economies are currently quite close to the central bank's 2% target. However, monetary policy makers warn that the final leg of the fight against inflation is the most difficult.

US stocks set a record, oil prices increased sharply before the Fed meeting.

This week, the market will undergo two important "tests" in the face of the results of the Fed meeting and the consumer price index (CPI) report, both released on Wednesday...
Both are expected to bring clearer signals about the path of interest rates in the near future, especially after the stronger-than-expected jobs report released by the US Department of Labor on Friday. previously dashed hopes that the Fed could soon reduce interest rates.

The US stock market rallied in the trading session on Monday (June 10), with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both setting new closing records thanks to the rise of technology stocks ahead of the monetary policy meeting. of the Federal Reserve (Fed). Crude oil prices increased nearly 3% while investors waited for new information about interest rates and inflation.

This meeting, the Fed will release updated quarterly economic forecasts, including "dot-plot", forecasts of members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on interest rates. “Dot-plot” data will provide new signals about the timing and frequency of interest rate cuts. According to data from CME's FedWatch Tool, the market is betting on the possibility that the Fed will only cut interest rates once this year in November.

“It seems like everyone wants the Fed to reduce interest rates, but the Fed does not have enough basis to do so. Therefore, the market is eagerly waiting until Wednesday morning, when CPI data is released, to have more guidance on interest rates," Mr. Jim Barnes - Director of Bryn Mawr Investment - commented to Reuters news agency.

While watching the movie Vikings, Ragnar Lothbrok calls Floki's name. Is that a sign?

#floki

Another report showed that the US labor market cooled, strengthening the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September.

The number of new jobs in the private sector in the US increased more slowly than forecast in May 2024, another signal that the labor market is cooling and further strengthens the possibility that the Fed will soon lower interest rates.

According to a report from payroll processing company ADP, private companies added 152,000 jobs in May 2024, lower than economists' forecast of 175,000 jobs and also much lower than 188,000 jobs. jobs in April. This is the lowest number since January 2021.

Along with the slowdown in new jobs, wage growth remained at 5%, marking three consecutive months of remaining at this level.

After ADP's report, investors will wait for the employment report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Reports from ADP can sometimes provide a glimpse of what to expect in reports from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, although both figures are compiled differently. In April 2024, ADP's report showed that the private sector added 188,000 jobs, while the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report only added 167,000 jobs.