As the ETF date approaches, funds begin to leave the market, and the hype around Inscription is coming to an end, so be cautious. #btc

The market trend in the past few days has been weak at night, which shows that European and American funds are shipping, and miners' data shows that they are also shipping. As the date of ETF approaches, big funds begin to adopt cautious strategies. It’s better to be cautious and safety first. #btc

CME's Bitcoin futures are at a discount, and European and American funds are beginning to be bearish. This round of market prices has exploded into the air force and then into the bullish market. #btc

The Ethereum core developers meeting promoted the Cancun upgrade. From a transaction perspective, there is a demand for Ethereum-based currencies to make up for the increase. #op #arb

The market is going crazy, and the ETF sentiment will probably last until the end of the month. There will still be opportunities in 2024 #btc

#lunc、 #luna、 #bigtime、 #ordi , #iota These ghosts

Asian funds are still strong, and speculation still depends on Asian funds, especially East Asian funds. #btc

ETFs will plummet if rejected;

If the ETF passes and is expected to be implemented, the probability of a short-term correction is also high. Now the market is gaming the space before the ETF is implemented, which has the taste of a fishtail market.

BTC is now close to US$40,000, with a historical high of US$69,000, and the space is less than 80%. The energy brought by ETFs and halving is not enough to compare with the market environment at that time of US$69,000. Therefore, there is limited room to continue to rise sharply, waiting for interest rate cuts to bring about a big bull market. #BTC

Everything that should be speculated in the market has been speculated, and BTC has not risen much due to the news of ETF. We have to reduce our positions and wait and see, especially for altcoins. #BTC

Halving and interest rate cuts are certain things next year, and there is no problem with the long-term bull market. There are still uncertainties in ETFs. Most of the FOMO sentiment in the market is because of ETFs. Is there a chance of a market washout before the bull market starts? #BTC

The rise of Bitcoin in the past six months has basically been due to the emotional hype of ETF, and even the expected increase in halving has been partially overdrawn. If the ETF is rejected or delayed for a long time, it will be a black swan for BTC. There is a high probability that this rebound has reached its tail, so we should start to be cautious #BTC

The proportion of inactive #BTC on the chain in 1, 2, 3, and 5 years is at the highest level in history. As funds rise in the game, they are unwilling to sell Bitcoin at the current price. Perhaps profits will be realized only when the date when the ETF has definite news is approaching. Well, January 10th is still more than a month away.

The launch of ETF by the United States is obviously to dominate crypto assets, and Binance’s control of more than 50% of the market’s trading volume is an obstacle to the United States, so the United States needs to target it. After this incident, the high probability of the launch of ETFs has become more certain, and crypto assets have entered a new stage of development, becoming more compliant and broader. The long-term trend is more certain.

The U.S. Department of Justice seeks more than $4 billion from Binance to settle criminal charges; the U.S. SEC accuses Kraken of mixing customer funds and operating as a registered exchange.

Is this another crackdown on exchanges? Market sentiment has begun to fall, and altcoins that have experienced large gains in the early stage should be cautious. #btc

According to data from The Block, the active supply of Bitcoin and Ethereum both hit record lows in the past year. In the past year, only 30.12% of Bitcoin’s supply changed hands, and only 39.15% of Ethereum’s supply changed hands, also hitting a record low. Funds are holding coins waiting to rise, betting on the arrival of the long-term trend. #btc

In the past two days, prices have fallen at night and rebounded during the day. Does this mean that European and American funds are withdrawing and East Asian funds are rushing? #btc

#BRC20 coins #ordi, #sats,#ratsare really crazy

Could Bitcoin ETF Hype Be Overdrawn?

Recently, JPMorgan Chase issued a point of view: the hype of Bitcoin ETF may be overdrawn, and the "halving" is also priced in.

We know that the price of Bitcoin in recent months has been basically driven by ETFs, and the sentiment in the crypto market has also been influenced by ETFs. Bitcoin has more than doubled since the beginning of the year. Is this increase already "overdrawn" as JP Morgan said, and has it priced in next year's "halving" market? Will the future impact of ETFs on the crypto market be as dramatic as most people expect?

Before explaining this issue, Houshanke will take you to look at the past gold market and the impact of its ETFs. The trend of gold from 1990 to the present: In the past 30 years, there have been many major events around the world, especially several major crises in the financial market, such as the 1998 Southeast Asian financial crisis, the bursting of the US Internet bubble in 2000, the 2008 financial tsunami, and the 2020 financial crisis. epidemic panic, etc.

When these crises occurred, the global stock market, real estate, commodity and other markets all experienced "crash-like" slumps. We can see that even gold, as a safe-haven asset, fell even during the crisis, but the decline was not significant. From here we can also see that so-called safe-haven assets will not fall much when a crisis occurs, but they will not rise sharply either.

Think about it again, there were even some local wars during this period. Did gold rise very much? Not big, right? The real sharp rise in gold came from the monetary expansion during the economic boom from 2003 to 2007 and the monetary quantitative easing adopted by the Federal Reserve to rescue the market after the 2008 financial tsunami.

In other words, the real big rises all come from currency releases.

Bitcoin’s current market value and consensus are not enough to be compared with gold. From the perspective of the macro environment, the global economy may continue to decline for a long time to come, and it is unrealistic to expect economic prosperity to drive monetary expansion. Now the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, shrinking its balance sheet, and tightening money in an "unprecedented" manner, so there is less and less money in the market.

The pressure of a possible economic recession will force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which may not be until the second half of 2024. We can't expect a massive currency outflow for the time being.Let’s look at it from the perspective of gold ETFs. The U.S. gold ETF was approved by the SEC in late October 2004 and began trading in November 2004. However, the world’s first gold ETF was actually approved by Australia in 2003.

Gold did rise before and after the ETF was passed, but the increase was "not big". Was this increase caused by the listing of the ETF, or was it caused by the global economy beginning to prosper in the early 2000s (when China joined the WTO)? It’s hard to say.

Let’s return to the Bitcoin ETF. What the market is looking forward to is the approval of the US ETF. Just like the gold ETF was first listed in Australia, the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved for listing by Canada, Germany and some European countries in the past few years. However, investors seem to have "little interest".

So after the approval of the U.S. Bitcoin ETF, can it really bring in a larger amount of funds than expected? From the above description, we can see that big market trends require currency releases, while ETFs may only bring small market trends. In the context of an uncertain macroeconomic environment and suppression by the Federal Reserve's high interest rates, funds may be more concerned about the stability and security of their finances rather than chasing risky assets. Therefore, JPMorgan Chase’s statement that the price of BTC is overdrawn also makes sense.

CZ sold his house to buy coins in 2014, experienced a cold winter in 2015, founded Binance in 2017, and is now the leader in the currency circle. Everyone has to pay tuition for early admission, haha

Last night's huge earthquake caused many long orders to liquidate. The application for Ethereum ETF prompted ETH to make up for the increase. The current market sentiment is simmering, so it was withdrawn first. #BTC #eth