I've been wandering around the market all year round, and I'm an old leek! Focus on spot contracts and capture web3 dynamics! Crypto Research Institute and the giant whale move forward side by side and work together~

Sector changes, hot spots captured! #planet🌍
Web3, L2, AI artificial intelligence, DeFi, Lsd, Rwa, modularization, public chain...

$BTC $ETH $BNB

July 5th market: Pay attention to the US unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls data at 20:30 tonight!

Bitcoin fell sharply, and altcoins generally plummeted. External news: Many governments continue to sell BTC. Mt.Gox wallet in Mentougou transferred 47,228 BTC, about 2.7 billion US dollars, which exacerbated market instability and foreshadowed large fluctuations.

Reviewing this week's market, don't buy the bottom before Bitcoin stops falling! Reduce operations. From a technical point of view, Bitcoin currently has no signal to stop falling. Structurally, 56,000 has been broken, and the bottom looks at 52,000, and then 50,600 support

Mt. Gox activates wallet ahead of schedule to pay $9 billion in Bitcoin and BCH, what's next?

Highlights

Mt. Gox is expected to begin repayments of BTC and BCH soon.

Before repaying the money, Mt. Gox cold wallets transferred some BTC to other addresses.

As the German government liquidates BTC, the $9 billion Mt. Gox incident has led to increased market panic.

What's next for BTC prices?

The amount that Mt. Gox is about to repay is as high as $9 billion, which is about 0.7% of the 19.7 million BTC currently in circulation. Given that the price of BTC was about $600 when Mt. Gox collapsed, this huge debt has heightened concerns that creditors are eager to sell Bitcoin for profit. Now, creditors are expected to receive nearly 100 times their initial investment.

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, expressed concerns about the impact of this large BTC issuance on the market. “With the news that the trust will begin selling in July, investors are understandably concerned,” he said, according to CNBC. In addition, Butterfill stressed that this BTC reserve issuance has long been a concern for bullish BTC investors.

Similarly, JPMorgan analysts have also assessed the potential impact of Mt. Gox creditors liquidating their holdings. They predict that this sell-off could put short-term pressure on BTC prices. “Assuming that the majority of liquidations by Mt. Gox creditors occur in July, this would create a trajectory where cryptocurrency prices face further pressure in July but rebound from August,” JPMorgan analysts said in a recent research note.

In addition, with the German government selling and Mt. Gox expected to pay, BTC long liquidations reached $77.67 million. This suggests that BTC will accelerate its collapse. In addition, it is worth noting that when Mt. Gox collapsed in 2014, BTC was worth only $600, and creditors made 100 times the profit. Therefore, they can realize these profits immediately after payment, which may lead to a significant correction in the price of BTC.

ETH may be one of the most anticipated mid- to long-term plays right now.
1. Fully retraced initial ETF pump
2. Days left before ETF approval
2. ETF flows are severely underestimated
3. Shows relative strength on the way down
Expect ETH/ETH-beta/RWA to lead the next move.

Negative factors in the current market:
1. Macro: inflation, interest rate hikes, dollar panic, economic recession, war
2. Sell-off: 1) The US and German governments sold off their 255,000 BTC. 2) Mentougou's 140,000 BTC compensation. 3) Miners sell off
3. US stock ETF funds cannot flow into the cryptocurrency circle
4. No one will buy ETH ETF, and Grayscale will dump the market
5. The market lacks innovation, VC coin unlocking, and lacks channels to attract newcomers

💎 Focus list👇🏻
1. ETH ecosystem: ETHFI and SSV
2. RWA sector: Ondo, a representative project in the field of physical asset digitization, is expected to perform well in the new round of bull market.
3. BTC's second-layer network: STX
4. Meme sector: BONK, WIF, PEPE, FLOKI, BOME
5. AI sector: ARKM, AR, RNDR, NEAR, LPT, NFP (FET. AGIX. OCEAN will be merged into ASI starting this month)

Any wealth transfer is bloody! Today's market crash may be the most desperate one in recent times, because:

1. US stocks rise, and the cryptocurrency market falls: In the past, BTC and US stocks rose and fell together, but this time it was the opposite, and everyone was confused.

2. No consensus negative news: Previous declines had obvious negative news, such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but this time there was no consensus negative news, anyway, it just fell, and everyone was confused.

3. Psychological defense line collapse: BTC fell below $60,000 again, breaking the psychological defense line of many people.

In fact, people who make money always need people who lose money to take over. In the bull market, old leeks were overjoyed because the market liquidity was sufficient, trading was active, new funds continued to pour in, and account floating profits continued to rise. This was a particularly good time.

However, now, most people are trapped and don't want to open the exchange, spot users are trapped, and the concept of "holding" is strengthened. The trading frequency is extremely low, OTC funds are unable to enter the market, and market liquidity is exhausted, resulting in the current "junk market".

This kind of "junk market" needs a sword to break the ice. It may be a big positive to change fate, or it may be a few sell-offs to completely break confidence and then reverse.

✍️✍️✍️
Personally, I think:
1. Interest rate cut: This is an inevitable event, a matter of time. The interest rate cut will allow funds to enter the market and bring about the market.

2. US election: The currency circle is a topic that has been mentioned repeatedly, and Wall Street capital will not give up.

3. ETF passed: The goal is to harvest more traditional funds, not the existing currency circle funds.

These points are the reasons why I dare to "hold on and play dead". If you also need to recharge your faith, you can refer to it and drink some chicken soup.

Of course, the arrival of a big market does not mean that all coins will rise. Hold promising coins and don't buy blindly. Choice is always greater than effort. As for my logic of selecting coins, I will talk about it slowly later. Each sharing will bring reasons, rather than mindlessly giving letters. There is a long way to go!

#美国首次申领失业救济人数超出预期 #非农就业数据即将公布 #以太坊ETF批准预期

Spot BTC ETF suffered an outflow of $140 million, falling for five consecutive days. Grayscale's GBTC suffered a large outflow of funds, while BlackRock's IBIT ETF rose. The market trend was mixed. The price of BTC was 64,300. The recent trend was bearish, but the long-term bullish trend had potential.

Spot BTC ETF outflow analysis:
Spot BTC ETF continued to experience capital outflows, with a net outflow of $139.88 million on June 20. This was the fifth consecutive day of capital outflows. The trend began earlier this week, with $152.4 million flowing out of these funds on June 18. The market was closed on June 19 for the holiday. On Thursday, the market saw net outflows for the fifth consecutive day, with Grayscale BTC Trust (GBTC) experiencing a large outflow of $53.1 million and Fidelity Think Tank Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) experiencing an outflow of $51.1 million.

The market is currently looking at the upcoming US private sector PMI data on June 21 as a potential turning point. If these data indicate a strong chance of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, then this could stem the outflows. However, if the US S&P Global Services PMI data is higher than the June forecast of a drop from 54.8 to 53.7, then outflows could occur for the sixth consecutive day.

BTC has fallen to $64,200, below the 50-day moving average but above the 200-day moving average, suggesting short-term weakness but long-term strength. The open interest of the contract has fallen slightly to $19 billion. A break above the 50-day moving average would see a rise to $69,000 and even a record high of 73,808. But a break below 64,000 would risk a move to the downside of 60,365. The RSI is 39.47, suggesting room to fall before reaching oversold levels. The US services data and BTC ETF flows should be closely monitored.

#XRP币 vs. SEC lawsuit enters trial, is it a bull run or a crash?

Ripple securities lawsuit is coming to an end as the judge moves the case to trial and dismisses the class action lawsuit against Ripple. XRP may soon reach $0.6.

Highlights:

1. The SEC gave in and cut the proposed fine from $2 billion to $102.6 million.

2. According to the SEC's settlement with TFL, Ripple requested a fine of up to $10 million.

3. XRP Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty questions the integrity of the SEC

Xrp has recently hovered around $0.48. Daily trading volume has also surged by 9%, indicating an increase in recent market activity. Among other factors, this increase may be due to the latest developments in Ripple's lawsuit against the SEC, which is mostly favorable to Ripple.

XRP price has been trading below the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) for a while now. Although this is not bullish for XRP, it has been in a consolidation zone for the past few months, establishing a strong support base.

The relative strength index (RSI 14) is below the midpoint of 43. It has been struggling to stay above the 50 level, briefly breaching it a few times in the past. This is an indicator that bulls are struggling. The RSI line (purple) is also above its moving average (yellow), suggesting that XRP may find some support around the 40 level.

XRP has enough room to rise and reclaim $0.6 and is currently facing some resistance around $0.51-0.54. On the other hand, 0.45 provides a strong support barrier, below which XRP could find support at $0.42-0.38. $XRP

After completing the two targets of #BTC , it dropped again. Yesterday, I arranged for my partner Duodan to get on the bus at 64630. The target was 65600, and 66300 has been successfully acquired!

#Bome币 👀 is about to break through 0.009. The whale was ambushing at 0.0084 yesterday. 🛫$BOME

ETH VS L2, which one is more suitable for investment?

1. Historical performance
Although the number of listed L2s has increased, their total fully diluted valuation (FDV) accounts for the same proportion of ETH as shown in Figure 1. More L2s do not occupy a larger share of the overall ETH market value, but shrink instead; at the same time, the emergence of more L2s has not brought about the growth of ETH TVL, but has brought about fragmentation and insufficient liquidity;

2. Valuation and cost-effectiveness
Currently, the total FDV of major L2 tokens is about 40 billion US dollars, the annualized fee is 40 million US dollars, and the valuation multiple is about 1,000 times, which is in sharp contrast to the DeFi protocol, whose valuation multiples are usually between 15-60 times;

What is even more outrageous is that the implementation of EIP-4844 and the increase in transaction volume brought about by the reduction of Gas cannot significantly increase the overall fee income. The current L2 fee has dropped to 3 million to 4 million US dollars per month, which is an exponential decline compared to before;

3. The same public chain narrative but different from the logic of the previous cycle
Although in the long run, L2 may generate considerable fee income. L2 generates $150M in fees per year, but there is no shortage of block space between L2 and high throughput chains (Sol, Sui, Apt, etc.). The limiting factor is the applications that use this block space. Liquid markets will reward the application layer rather than the infrastructure layer in the next few years.

2024.6.20 Crypto Events

● On June 19, nine US BTC ETFs reduced their holdings by a total of 442 coins

● If the spot Ethereum ETF receives 10-20% of the Bitcoin ETF's capital flow, it may push ETH to break through the 4,000 mark

● It is expected that the inflow of Bitcoin ETFs will accelerate again in Q3/Q4

● Arkham: Dezheng Wallet sold about 6,500 BTC and still holds 43,359 BTC

● Currently, the stock of Bitcoin Exchange is the lowest in 3 years, and the stock of Ethereum is the lowest in 8 years

● IMX-Immutable Joint Creation: More than 60 games will be launched in the next 5 months

● A whale/institution bought 6,570 BTC from CEX 7 hours ago, equivalent to US$427 million

● BNB - Binance announced the launch of "HODLer Airdrops", a reward program for BNB token holders that provides early access to new tokens.

● ERN - Ethernity announced that their layer 2 status page will be automated and live with a testnet soon.

● ETHFI - EtherFi DAO proposes to use up to 50% of protocol revenue for ETHFI buybacks.

● FRIEND - Plans to open transfer functionality for FRIEND tokens in the coming weeks.

● JUP - Jupiter CEO proposes to reduce JUP supply by 30%, and the team will stake 100% of the first year cliff for another 2 years to ensure there is no supply shock.

● MNDE - Marinade unveiled its Share Auction Market (SAM). SAM simulation will be tested at the end of June.

● MPL - Maple's institutional DeFi platform is scheduled to launch on June 25th.

● SXP - Solar Ventures to launch Solar Cards in August, offering virtual and physical crypto debit cards in over 200 countries.

● TURBO - Turbo previews major TURBO partnership announcement on June 25th.

● MAGA has partnered with DWF Labs, while MOTHER has partnered with Wintermute

● APT-Aptos announced that Node v1.14.1 has been released and recommends upgrading within the next 7 days.

06/20 Market Analysis
#LiquidityAnalysis
Yesterday was a holiday in the United States, so we mainly talked about the pvp moment of retail investors. From the liquidation volume, we can see that it has eased a lot, which can be regarded as a day of rest for retail investors

There are only about 11 days left before the end of Q2. With the news of Ethereum's expected July 2, the Ethereum system will theoretically be much stronger during this period. You can give priority to the liquidity and strong coins of the Ethereum system; LDO, ssv, ens, ethfi, pendle...
#SentimentAnalysis
If the tariff has not changed much, I will not look at it. Today, let's talk about "taking over"

After L0 announced the query qualification yesterday, it is also ready to be listed on the exchange. According to the recent airdrop projects, they will not be too far from the over-the-counter: 3u is actually a sweet price

But after the baptism of strk, w, and zk, almost all those who take over at the opening are locked in, especially ZRO, which currently looks like a governance coin

In the current market, I think "grabbing the opening coin will lose emotionally", but from the perspective of FDV, cross-chain projects are only 30 100 million is definitely not justifiable, so I think we can pay a little attention to it when the market opens and play it as a lottery

#Today's Daily Focus

1. As long as the Fear and Greed Index reaches 40, it will turn into fear, so we are getting closer and closer to fear

2. ETF outflows do not seem to slow down. It is estimated that the current cost-effectiveness of investing in US stocks is relatively high, so funds are withdrawn

3. 20:30 The number of initial unemployment claims will be announced. Pay attention to the fluctuations caused by the data announcement

Regarding this round of panic in the altcoin market, here are some views on the altcoin market:

1. The current altcoin market seems to be caught in an overly pessimistic mood, resulting in a serious lack of market liquidity. However, it must be recognized that once market sentiment stabilizes, many altcoins will still rebound quickly. Don't blindly believe that altcoins will continue to fall. After all, there is no shortage of funds in the market, especially in the crypto field. At present, what the market really lacks is confidence and expectations of a loose environment.

2. The prosperity of altcoins will eventually come, but it will no longer be the overall rise of the bull market in the past. High-quality altcoin projects are expected to achieve tens or even hundreds of times of growth space, while poorly performing projects are likely to be unable to keep up with the pace of the market. Therefore, it is crucial to choose high-quality altcoins. More importantly, if you choose the wrong project, you must have the courage to change your position in time to avoid being dragged down by sunk costs.

3. In the past bull market, as long as you can buy and hold altcoins, you can usually get good returns. However, in this round of bull market, the switching speed of funds is faster. For the operation of cottage, you must not only know how to buy, but also learn to sell at the right time to ensure that the profits are pocketed. Don't miss the best time to sell because of temporary greed, otherwise you may lose all your profits when the bear market comes. #美联储何时降息？ #BTC走势分析

Market Weekly Report | 6.10-6.16

Overview of each track: There is no new narrative in the market, which may be affected by CRV liquidation. The market and each track have fallen by more than 5%

Stablecoin data: USDe's weekly and monthly increases are close to USDT, and the market value has increased by 1.1 billion US dollars in the past month

The total market value of the overall stablecoin in the market is still 26.435 billion US dollars away from the historical high of 188.3 billion US dollars (April 22).

Defi data: Directly affected by CRV liquidation, the TVL of the Defi market fell by 5.18% weekly

L2 data: L2 has performed poorly overall in the past week. Except for Scroll, all of the top 10 L2s in TVL have fallen sharply

The top five L2s in TVL this week are Arbitrum, Base, OP, Blast, and Mantle;
Except for Scroll, there has been a large decline, and Manta, ZKsync, and Starknet have all declined by more than 10% weekly.

Market News:

1: BlackRock executives: BTC ETF is a bridge between crypto and traditional finance

2: Uniswap Labs launches new community survey, using any token to pay for gas has a high support rate

3: Tether CEO: More than 300 million people use USDT worldwide, Tether is the main buyer of US Treasury bonds

4: US Securities Commissioner: Tokenization can provide "security, transparency and immutability"

5: Biden will attend the BTC roundtable

6: Fidelity Digital Assets released a video introduction and said it will continue to pay attention to its development

7: Cardano will give the community control of the treasury's $681 million in funds

8: The cumulative financing amount of the crypto industry in ten years has exceeded $100 billion

SEC's Gary Gensler expects ETH ETF S1 to be approved by the end of summer.

This would mean at least that the ETH ETF would be available for trading in September 2024.

I had expected approval to come sooner than this, but this is also very consistent with previous views of the market.

Expect some sideways activity over the next month or two, with a reversal in late July/early August.

This also makes a lot of sense from a macro perspective, with the election in November. Reserve your space - have a plan, and execute once you get the green light.