Market focus: Mentougou wallet changes attract attention
Recently, the Mentougou wallet has once again caused a stir in the market. Since the morning, several large transfers have occurred in the Mentougou wallet address (1JbezDVd9VsK9o1Ga9UqLydeuEvhKLAPs6), and the total number of bitcoins currently held has reached 42,909. Although there is no official announcement, this unusual movement has led the market to speculate that it may be a collection behavior or a preparation before compensation.
The market is paying close attention to the Mentougou incident. If compensation is really paid, it may cause some selling pressure in the short term, but in the long run, the market is able to absorb this pressure, and the market will be healthier after compensation. Since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, the market has gradually absorbed the impact of Grayscale GBTC. Once the Mentougou compensation is completed in the future, the upside of Bitcoin will be clearer.

In the world of blockchain, we often hear the advice “don’t go to crowded places”. This is not just an investment strategy, but a profound philosophy of life. In this era of information explosion and unpredictable changes, the pursuit of being different seems to have become the goal of many people. However, true wisdom may not always lie in avoiding crowds, but in how to coexist with them when necessary, and even find your own path within them.

The development of blockchain technology has brought us unprecedented opportunities, but it is also accompanied by huge uncertainties and risks. In this environment, following the principle of "avoid going to crowded places" seems to be a way to protect yourself. It allows us to avoid becoming part of the bubble, remain calm and rational, and not be affected by the noise of the outside world. This is an application of thick black knowledge, a kind of wisdom that is good at protecting yourself and avoiding unnecessary losses.

One sunny day, I was lying on the beach and watched a group of surfers pounding the waves in the bay. Every move and every choice they make reminds me of the world of investment, especially with the craze of blockchain and Web3.

You might ask, what do surfing and investing have in common? Let’s explore these two seemingly different but similar fields.

On top of the tide, among the opportunities

Surfers spend most of their time lying on their boards waiting for that perfect wave. Their patience and insight allow them to seize the best opportunity to rush to the coast. Isn’t that what we do when we look for investment opportunities? In the world of blockchain, we are also looking for opportunities that can take us soaring.

The once prosperous #BALD coin pool disappeared overnight, and thousands of investors seemed to wake up from a dream. And the mysterious deployer who promoted all this is still hiding in the shadows of the currency circle. In the past few days, we have witnessed the joy and tears of the cryptocurrency community. However, in the meantime, an important guide to safe trading is being written to reveal how to protect your investments during such market turmoil. The following content will reveal the truth behind this mysterious incident and provide you with some strategies to prevent future risks.

We still don’t know who deployed BALD, but judging from everyone’s speculation, SBF is the most suspect. The Binance deposit address starting with 0x6663 and the active address starting with 0x000f used have interacted with Andrew Keys and Alameda Research. These addresses have interacted with every major exchange, so at some point we will know who these potentially criminal deployers are.

What happened: The source of the curve attack was in the early morning of July 31. The official Twitter of Vyper, the Ethereum EVM compiler, stated that Vyper versions 0.2.15, 0.2.16 and 0.3.0 were vulnerable to recursive faults. Several versions of the project were immediately contacted by the team. The most serious one is Curve. Because some of Cruve’s stablecoin pools use these versions, they have been attacked by hackers. However, Link has not been updated for a long time, and there is no update or quotation. The direct result of this is that many on the chain are not easy to be liquidated.

Let’s take a look at what happened yesterday:

The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate hike, raising the interest rate range to 5.25%-5.5%. This is the 11th rate increase since the rate hike started in March 2022. The Fed made very few changes to its post-meeting statement (almost copying its June statement) and provided no new guidance on future policy plans - it will continue to evaluate additional information and its impact on monetary policy. Although interest rates are raised by 25 basis points, we still need to remain highly vigilant. Inflation remains high (inflation in June has dropped to 3%, and the Fed should be worried about the slower decline in core inflation); the description of economic growth has been raised from "moderate" to "moderate" (this is more like a hesitation Undecided to raise interest rates). When the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time, there was almost no movement in the financial market, and the world seemed to be asleep: the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq 100 Index narrowed their losses, and the US dollar and US Treasury bonds were almost unchanged. , swap contracts still show a 50% chance of another interest rate hike, and traders in Asia who stayed up late waiting for the decision even yawned. It's the quietest hike in the world. The three major U.S. stock indexes fell back after rising highs. The Dow closed up 0.24%, rising for 13 days in a row, tying the longest record in history. The S&P 500 closed up 0.02%, and the Nasdaq closed down 0.12%. Finally, let’s take a look at what Powell said at the press conference: 1. Completely focus on the dual mission and firmly commit to returning the inflation rate to 2% (although it is a slogan and has no substantive meaning, this sentence cannot be missing, Failure to say this will cause big trouble); 2. The full impact of policy tightening has not yet appeared; 3. A data-dependent approach to future interest rate increases. If the data shows that it is necessary, we may raise interest rates in September or keep interest rates unchanged. How to act in September depends on the data. We have not decided yet. This is the highlight of the entire press conference. It was mentioned The possibility of suspending interest rate hikes in September; 4. Decisions will continue to be made meeting by meeting (it seems that the end of the interest rate hike cycle will not be announced at the September meeting); 5. It is a good thing that overall inflation has dropped so much. The key is The problem is balancing the risk of doing too much or too little. It is hoped that the core inflation rate will decline, but core inflation is still at a high level. The core inflation rate is a better indicator of the direction of overall inflation (in the future, the United States will release an inflation report that will focus on core inflation).6. There will be no interest rate cut this year, and several FOMC members expect a rate cut next year (Federal Reserve officials may comment on interest rate cuts in the future); 7. Fed staff no longer predict that the economy will fall into recession - this is the first of Powell's news speeches. The two major highlights are that the Federal Reserve defines it as an "economic soft landing"; 8. The inflation rate is expected to fall back to 2% around 2025 (high interest rates will be maintained in the long term). The 25 basis points we expected came as promised, and the probability of raising interest rates in September is small. US federal funds rate futures show that the market expects the probability of another rate hike by the Fed in this round to be 42%, of which the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 42%. is 21.5%, and there will be at least one 25BP interest rate cut by May next year.

Globally, Web3 is triggering a new digital revolution, and Japan, an Eastern country, is actively embracing this revolution. Especially in the two cities of Tokyo and Kyoto, the influence of Web3 is rapidly expanding.

Tokyo, as the capital of Japan, has become an important gathering place for Web3 encryption institutions. The city is the political, economic, educational and cultural center of Japan and an important hub for international exchange and innovation. Here, you can find a series of active Web3 companies and institutions such as HashPort, KEKKAI, Skyland Ventures, MZ Web3 Fund, etc.

On July 26, 2023, it reset to zero for the Nth time. I don’t know if you all feel this way. I’m at zero and I have no money in my hand. I saw that a local dog that I focused on in the self-selected list fell back from the high point of 100W to 20W. The community is still very active, so I judged it as a golden dog. I quickly borrowed money and deposited money, and sent WeChat messages to three friends to talk about borrowing money. After waiting anxiously for more than an hour (PS: You look really mean when you borrow money from others), only one friend replied: OK, At this time, Tugou rebounded to 40W. After you receive the money and open the exchange to deposit, the seller asks you to provide a bunch of proof of the source of the funds. You respond to requests as sincerely as a grandson. The seller suddenly says sorry that we will not accept the funds for that day. You grit your teeth and make up your mind to find someone who does not require verification. Although the price is a bit higher, the inner confidence makes you feel that you will make money back, but the "no verification" merchant still allows you to provide the transaction flow, but the verification is relatively loose, and it will give you money to the account. The whole process took 10 minutes and it felt like 10 years had passed. During the process of transferring money, Tugou rebounded to 60W. After transferring money, you quickly pressed the "paid" button and sent a screenshot of the payment to the dialog box. I hope the seller can confirm the payment within 10 seconds, but the seller slowly waited for 5 minutes before confirming it. In the process, the price rebounded to 80W; I finally received the U, and hurriedly exchanged the market price for ETH to withdraw the currency! At this time, Tugou has adjusted back to 70W, and the currency has just been mentioned on the chain. You are very happy. I just wanted to pee, so in the process of peeing, I thought about buying it back to 50W. I was so happy that I came back to the computer. After a while, a big green column appeared on the K line. It turned out that it was the KOL who made the call. The group is full of rockets and green pillars swiping the screen. At this time, the market value is 90W. You think that all the group members are in FOMO. If you go in at this time, you will definitely hang on a tree, so you continue to wait; but the K line keeps going up, and it rushes to 100W after a while. , before waiting for a decent callback, I went to the front high. A small red pillar came out from the front high position and hit 95W, but it was quickly eaten up. In the blink of an eye, the group of friends were celebrating 105W, ATH. . . . You feel that you have reached a new high, there is no selling pressure, and you can start trading, so you keep 0.02e for GAS and sell the rest. You set a slippage of 5 for the 0-tax currency, but you didn’t buy it for the first time. Looking at The market value is getting higher and higher. You set a slippage of 10 to increase the GAS and finally buy it. At this time, the market value is 130W;You breathed a sigh of relief and watched the K-line reach 140W. Looking at the increasingly better community atmosphere, you thought about how to spend the money when the market value was 3000W. Soon the K-line fell from 140W to 130W. You The cost price, you think to yourself, a pullback is healthy, I want to be a diamond player, and friends in the group are shouting Jeets will get rekt / Jeets NGMI and so on, you are more convinced of your judgment; at this time you are a little sleepy , although I feel a little uneasy in my heart, I will make peace with it now that I have come and wait until I wake up. Two hours later, you suddenly woke up and looked at the K line. You saw that it had dropped to 70W. What made you feel sad was that while you were sleeping, the K line touched 200W. You did the math and found out that you could earn money by running at the highest point. About 50%, now the loss is almost half; look at the group members are comforting each other, cheering each other up, you resisted the temptation, so you thought about building; you sent the contract to each group, soft cx, Friends in the group either turn a blind eye, or say that they have already eaten a wave and it is very comfortable, or they say that dev is shipping and only fools buy it. As a currency holder, you feel at a loss, you have no money in your hand, and you can’t cover your position. It seems that it is getting worse and worse. The price is low, you want to cut the meat. Just when you make up your mind to cut the meat at 50W, a big order comes, followed by two, three... A total of 10 green orders, large and small, come in, and the market value has also increased from 50W. When it reached 80W, the friends cheered again; at this time, you didn’t want to cut the coin at all. You regarded this coin as the next PEPE in your mind, thinking that PEPE was also washing people in the first few days, so you continued to hold it; Unfortunately, a big red order came, followed by seven or eight red orders. At first glance, they were all in the band. It is estimated that the previous purchase orders came from following the smart wallet. As soon as the smart wallet left, they also left... ...Suddenly you hit back 60W, and you want to cut the meat again, but the positive attitude of the group friends makes you feel that cutting the meat now is very jeet and SB. Finally, you went to have dinner. During the dinner, your sixth sense drove you to turn on your mobile phone. You saw that there was a -50% K line in 15 minutes, and the market value reached 30W. At this time, everyone in the group was buzzing. It was a purchase order, but the market value was getting lower and lower. A closer look revealed that the administrator had set up three order robots and placed one order three times. Ah!Cao Ni Ma, you finally exploded inside. You, who have always been very positive, asked directly in the group What's up? Don't you dare say Dev sold? Or Rug? Because you still hold coins, you have to pay attention to the latest developments in the group at all times, and you can't be kicked, so you are humble. I can only ask lightly What's up? Then an administrator replies Nothing, jeets gone we're mooning or is laughed at by a group member. Just like this, you stare at the K line and reach 20W. 20W is the position where many people started to buy the bottom. You thought there would be a rebound, but after holding this position for more than ten minutes, it still fell below. The negative price fell to 10W. In the group, There were fewer and fewer people talking, and only a few people were using emoticons. Only then did they realize that the so-called good atmosphere was vulnerable to financial interests. After a few hours, I hit 5W. Suddenly the group was banned, and an administrator who usually rarely spoke pinned a message saying that he wanted to relaunch V2 and asked everyone to send coins to one address. You were doubtful, so you checked on the chain and found that many people were sending coins to him. At the same time, many people were banned from watching the group and were messing around with relaunch. They lost confidence in the project and cut off their stocks one after another. The market value reached 3W. You looked at the coins in your hand and saw that they had dropped 40 times. You borrowed 20,000 yuan. There are only 500 yuan left, and my heart is already dead. So the dead horse acted as a live doctor and transferred half of the coins. Half of the coins were sold at the current price of 250 yuan, which is about 0.02e. After more than an hour, the group owner lifted the ban and deleted the original relaunch message. , and explained that there was a bad administrator who scammed everyone while I was sleeping. Please stop cheating! ! ! ! The group is in trouble. You feel that the group leader and the administrator are playing a double act, but it is no longer important. You smile and leave the group.

Worldcoin is a highly innovative blockchain project that aims to achieve universal basic income worldwide. I was unable to analyze Worldcoin’s latest white paper as I was unable to get the information and access the links in real time. But based on my knowledge as of September 2021, I can speculate on some possible reasons.

Innovative concept: The core concept of Worldcoin is to provide a universal basic income for global citizens, which is a very attractive and challenging goal. This concept caters to concerns about socioeconomic equality, making Worldcoin stand out among numerous blockchain projects.

Cryptocurrency trading, simply put, is the activity of buying and selling cryptocurrencies in order to make profits. This is a dynamic and ever-changing market. Although it is based on mathematical models and technical analysis, the human factors involved cannot be ignored. In this process, psychological cues influence investors' decisions to a great extent. Understanding how psychological cues act on investors can help us better understand and respond to market changes during currency speculation.

First, let's look at autosuggestion. Autosuggestion has a huge impact on decision-making. When an investor analyzes the market, if he already has a preset result in mind, he will unconsciously look for information that is consistent with his preset result during the analysis process, and ignore information that conflicts with the preset result. information. This is called "confirmation bias." In the world of investing, especially the cryptocurrency market, this bias can lead investors to take too much risk or lose the possibility of seizing opportunities.

Worldcoin research report

introduce

Worldcoin is a globally inclusive identity and financial network that aims to be owned by all of humanity. If successful, Worldcoin could significantly increase economic opportunity, provide a reliable solution for distinguishing humans and AI online while preserving privacy, enable global democratic processes, and demonstrate a possible path to an AI-funded UBI .

Worldcoin consists of a privacy-preserving digital identity network (World ID) based on proof of person and, where permitted by law, a digital currency (WLD). Everyone is eligible to share WLD simply by being a human being. Currently, World ID and WLD are complemented by the World App developed by a team of contributors from Tools for Humanity (TFH), which is the first front-end for World ID and the Worldcoin protocol.