in this bear market which coin is the best refuge against a crash if any comes

we are expecting a not very exciting opening on the financials, it could well be during the day.
as it was too calm before the weekend we decided to cover our big shorts a little to stay in line, big regrets. so on the lookout for coin rebounds to let go of the mash, get rid of that. always shorts of the same relative value and short in dry, uncomfortable as soon as a long enters the portfolio, overtrading by prudence and regrettable error
at least it gives the feeling of the longs. 😊
the red should be there until the capitulation of the communities, investorsETF and exchanges, I spoke this weekend to someone other than here. there is already a certain unease.

point on my markets
not clear at all without big movements
yet the news is full of big geopolitical, political news harris unsere in front of trump not bull btc crypto according to bernstein
north korea in the spotlight should bring stress, net no risky assets go up a little bit we note tesla and apple down, non risky go down in proportion so 10 year rates go up a little gold silver down
the USD varies according to currencies oil down
hard to get an idea on the coming days which, I suppose, are blocked 'by the major event of the US elections,
volatility and trend will resume afterwards on all assets with the comments to read on Reuters or bloomberg which will set the tone of the analysts of the world of finance
sorry no big ideas in the short term some small profit taking on relative value positions initiated recently to free up cash.
we decide to keep the bulk of the portfolio risks unchanged, very winning. and have a coverage margin >400%
in English "a bit boring"

2025 comes after, elections and FED + new statistical indices on US economy
the accounts will be done for serious players.end of year 24.
we await your motivated ideas! ?

geopolitical situation more than explosive , north Korea intercontinental ballistic missiles tests some sold to Russia, +soldiers fighting Ukraine !? but who will come back home in plastic bags say US !
Dec FED rate cut in prices, elections + stats will determine future decisions
reverse daily hammer S&P ! ouch...
2025 bullish Don't think so🤣
get use to red that was due to come cf all posts for months.

no change in our very bearish LT stance& positions straight or relative value( still using volatility to sell memes)
it would take smtg major to change our view but we reassess regularly obviously

micro stratery the black swan of btc
if btc continues moves at the pace we endured recently in theclose 5% mark in less that 10 days the nav profit from itc btc holdings will vaporise and accelerate the move in a crash, no more loans a 0 % to add btc holdings, even bankrupcy risk ! yet the stuctured bonds are complex but it would be certainly bad news for bond and share holders who will try to recoup their money.from 2025 until 2031 billions of bonds convertible or not come to maturity. that could spark a sell off.
just so you know (a bit of research in a complex strategy by saylor).the btc ego maniac. no more yhan short research share I was interested in. do your own for sure in details
take care

markets check
considering all financials cash futures all assets+ news we think risk assets are a bit over optimistic in their move intraday especially btc

so considering now: either a short or long /short relative value for a net btc negative short term to see then migth run more

morning financial markets very little moves if anything a tiny bit opposite from yesterday morning looking like profit taking from the few xho took opportunities to get rid or short risky assets same already seen on cryptos from early lows. wich are having a more pronounced move as they are far more volatile.
so, nothing to change the down trend yet it seems

USTC
their stupid choice of repeg rather than the best solutions proposed they will destroy a token that had potential
already written about this I know the culprits

⚠️⚠️🚨the btc news from micheal saylor always trying to make the market rise is to be taken with a pinch of salt...not the first time he's trying to transform himself
his cash management at the start has become an unmanageable mammoth that puts micro strategy at risk in the event of a shock and the entire crypt sphere he's like those banks stuck by positions that are far too huge and that create major crises lehman, CSFB, SocGen subprime etc, I participated directly in each one.

markets today
pretty much as morning opening in direction but mvt amplified stocks down refuge assets up gold silver included with interest rates safer financials [note that tnotes are down (=higher rates) when bunds/ europe up(=lower rates, >traders are siking refuge). all volatility indexes are up stress is gaining financial world to some extend. not abnormal all considered + context of US elections running + usual dirtier campaigns, not a glory for the country !

$ not liked ! agst most/all major currencies ! not good for our cryptos labelled in $ something we hedge too.
oil is up confirming tensions mentionened in early post we can't find good for cryptos, may be some individual cases
for the rest all as we expected,
book performing gently. don't figth the trend surf it. If what we had was the bull run alt season etc 😂 we have/had a reversal (downtrend started months ago surrounded by volatility ). for those following for a lg time you know how we thk it will end

N.B to avoid stops to being triggered abnormaly on illiquid manipulated coins we'll avoid mentionnig them clearly 🫢. cryptos are not financial assets as such. illiquid, unregulated, which leads to excesses + malversations, We thk. frauds are by far too commun even in trading itself. not just scam, tech frauds...
it will still take time before 1 crypto replaces fiats properly, btc failed so far...

added some shorts on btc which was late on meme move
with a left order in perp fut. filed defore diner, discovered just now ! good to keep for at least 5% this migth not take long, don't want to overload book. especially with btc.
I suspect we'll need ammos to hit other knowned over expensise coins a lot more volatile.
I don't have that many returns from how you feel and trade pls share
hope mine are usefull for some at least. and it's free🤣

we like especially when long predicted
but long! won't be until the more exposed give up, we suspect in some sort of panic it could be.
exchanges are already long up to their ears wouldn't be able to do much we suspect , ETF well predicted inflows so, it seems, and anticipated going long upfront. their own comments are that we inflows were FOMO, we had that not so long ago before a nice correction downwards

transparency is worth more than buying this or that or selling
that's why we give our positions

60% invested 40% cash reserve ready for new risks and coverage of placed risks

39% directional short
61% relative value long / short
ability to double or even triple portfolios depending on performance. calling for new capital in the short term
much more in the medium to long term always depending on past performance over the long term
objective hedge fund regulated by EU market authorities
so far we are delighted with these shares on the square 😊
do not hesitate to share the posts if you like them, and thus create a community

point markets before US source Reuters
risky assets in slight decline continues Eurostock 50
non-risky, safe haven bund slight rise tnote indicates less expectations of rate decline
gold decline
euro still a little + strong
the global geopolitical and war situation persistent tensions (sources friends on site UN Yemen Israel Lebanon + gov France)

all this not good crypyos which are very risky assets with too much anticipation multiple sources + personal opinion
the little rise even always from the same communities not very logical in their approaches does not seem to make much sense
we keep our opinions
for all transparency our positions:
relative value: 5
let's keep shorts community memes long ada in coverage
directional: short

#ada what if
and if Charles Hoskinson, a true crypto pioneer, not far from genius ended up being right and that ada by its technology, the ergonomics of its echo-system, the versatility of its blockchain ended up supplanting the aging bitcoin.
institutional investors have neglected Ada for a long time, it is not a community coin, not a meme, a real crypto as initially dreamed but could become the best of these 2 worlds, with the success of the last update and those promised to come, leaving all the room to the community of investors in the decisions, a real decentralization, which could attract a greater number and even the return of the greatest. because the attention will not leave them indifferent.
it will be interesting to see how ada resists the decline that we anticipate, if today is not a single sword stroke in the water.
short memes a bit of btc which was supposed to hit 74000 again, and long ada for equivalent long short amounts, added to a recovery of shorts stopped with a better level. this day was our nice surprise awaited so long on Ada

to follow without excitement for the moment, but ready.

so this could well be the beginning
to all past posts I add Trump not elected, finished "Mr M" in the administration and the correction of the dogs is only just beginning bringing with them the memes who followed this sad illusion (for tens of millions of dreamers of easy fortune) close to the scam. the Chinese decision to resort to a colossal debt does not seem positive to us btc, which remains a risky asset not a safe haven. the states with little debt will be favored by investors to invest in bonds or treasury bills, in Gold, it is far too early for real estate
2025 will be as we anticipated a beginning of a crisis against a backdrop of state debts of bad students as always
this remains our preferred scenario very possible.
and the crypto bubble is inexorably approaching its explosion, even first

market cap under 2000 billion $
on the way to my 1000 of 2021 after this bullish moment? alts follow logically without brilliance at 500 miry level too

ss shame we admit a stop on one of our big shorts very recently in a spike out of logic math stat correlations.stop necessary
you should not be certain of anything whatever the markets.:W Buffet said very rightly that the aberration of the markets can last longer than the solvency of those who play a return to fundamental normality.

after years of envied run I lost a fortune in mio! by arrogance too sure of my successes. lesson this time not forgotten. especially on large positions that can put everything you own at risk, I did not go that far but should have cut myself much earlier
follow his advice
the manipulations of some can hurt.

back to cryptos
unlike Mr M whom we often quote as we doubt his sincerity. his interests are obvious, and not ours.
2025 promises us very hard times but not favorable to cryptos, risky asset, everyone's need for liquidity
if Trump US debt in cryptos! Mr M at his side
if Harris severe regulation more than opening to crypto techno.
we remain bearish outside of relative value arbitrage.after this bullish moment
btc already stopped at 74000 in the past, to be continued there were exits in the rise that could weigh on a continuation? cautious
the rest already mentioned in our posts has not changed either, same positions etc. your opinions? supported by serious arguments...

:whales are gently on the offer via bots, all coins our algo chked btc & dogs(Concentrating on doge for memes Mr Musk'dog robbing mios of poor people
what will it be with Trump to repay US dept in cryptos: poors will get in & pay with unrealistic dreams,classic, Musk at the wheel. they know, we do, you don't ,seems obvious.
we wish: a black monday / thursday whatever to burst the buble & save mios in the future, you'r getting robbed.

no less than 6 counterparties to sell a few thousand $ of btc with saturated exchanges be warned because when the tens of mios want to get out of the famous memes blocking without bid or exchange
that's why we have a certain number of them.with distributed liquidity because when it's gone don't forget the whales that they are ouch