All ETFs are selling! Is a big one coming?

Yesterday's data showed that the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of 218 million US dollars in a single day, and Grayscale alone sold more than 2,100 BTC. BlackRock, which has been buying for a record 71 days, rarely made no purchases for two consecutive days. So far, the Bitcoin spot ETF has been in a net outflow state for two consecutive days, and Grayscale's historical net outflow has reached 17.102 billion US dollars.

Why is this data a signal? Since the launch of the ETF in January, whenever there has been a net outflow for more than two days, the price of Bitcoin has been on the decline, whether it is the plunge in mid-March or April 13 and April 14.

Second, other ETFs that were still buying yesterday have turned into shorts today. ARKB FBTC and other ETFs in the third and fourth positions are all in an outflow state. Only Franklin is in a buying state among the eleven, which also indirectly confirms the possibility of operations for short-term and future market uncertainties.

Third, today is Friday, and it will be a holiday soon. It is the last day for the US stock market to open. Everyone has seen the market situation. No one can escape the high point. Next is the closing of the monthly line. At this position at the end of the month, the downward space must be greater than the upward space. After the seven consecutive positive monthly lines, this negative closing line will have greater strategic significance and will better promote the future market.

In short, everyone has come to the end of April. Don't mess up because of the short-term correction. $BTC $ETH $BNB

If nothing unexpected happens, this will be the first 100x coin this year!

Let me talk about some data, which is the fundamentals that everyone likes to mention: 150 million in circulation, 1 billion in total, one of the leaders in the AI ​​sector, Ultraman Investment, Panlantir and Open AI jointly support, Davis double-click, no need to calculate full circulation, in fact, there is no need to do so, it is still undervalued.

Let's talk about the news. GPT5 may be released in the summer, ARKM will continue to receive good news, and now the price of 2.2 has risen from the bottom to 2+. It is not surprising that the long-term bull market will reach 20 dollars, the so-called 100x coin.

Let's talk about the final technical aspect: after the weekly arc cup handle is completed, the main force has liberated all the locked-in plates, the light boat has passed through thousands of mountains, and the healthy advantages of chip distribution have gradually emerged. Let's look forward to it together. $ARKM $FET $WLD

How big will the selling pressure be after the ETH spot ETF is approved! Will it repeat the mistakes of BTC?

The SEC has officially approved the ETH spot ETF, and will complete the first ETFs transaction within 24 hours. Will the ETH spot ETF become a continuous selling pressure after the landing of the good news? Will it repeat the large-scale outflow like BTC?

First of all, let me directly state the point of view. We cannot compare BTC ETF with ETH, and the similarities between the two are actually not great. The scale of ETH ETF will not be as large as that of BTC, and may reach 20%-30% of the volume. Investors are also not as large as BTC, but at the same time, it is the best strategic product for institutions to choose besides BTC. Everyone knows that after the BTC spot ETF gradually matures, the spot of ETH is a potential new driving force and a new investment target.

Although ETH may face selling pressure and market crash in the short term, most of the selling pressure also comes from Grayscale, but through the example of BTC, we can see that Grayscale's management fee is too high, and BTC flows out to ETFs with low management fees such as BlackRock and Fidelity. This outflow is essentially a left-hand-to-right-hand operation. According to the data, the fee rate of Grayscale's Ethereum ETF remains at 2.5%, while the management fee rates of other institutions except Grayscale remain between 0.19%-0.25%. It can be said that most of them provide fee reductions, and even completely waive the handling fee in the first 6-10 months.

At the same time, we can also see from the inflow and outflow trends of Bitcoin spot ETFs that although GBTC outflows are large, as of July 22, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs has exceeded US$17 billion. And from the perspective of the coin price, in fact, at the current price of 6w6, the selling pressure has not had a special impact on the BTC price, but has become a more stable investment option.

Therefore, we do not need to worry about the selling pressure, which is a big negative for ETH or even the entire market. However, it is undeniable that the short-term flight of whale funds and the transfer of ETH by Grayscale will still cause possible panic, but the wave of smart money or the negative impact released will undoubtedly give us a better opportunity to make the final layout of this bull market. $BTC $ETH $BNB #以太坊ETF批准预期

Now is still the best time to lay out in the bull market!

Why is it the best time to lay out now? The most straightforward macro view: the harvest of the US interest rate hike can be said to be very unsatisfactory. More than 34 trillion national debts need a new pool of funds to carry. Since Longguo is not as obedient as in 2008 to take over the US debt, then Bitcoin and gold are very good carriers, or the only two carriers that can be realized. One is in the open and the other is in the dark, cooperating with the interest rate cut to complete this potential historical bull market.

After a week of price fluctuations, Bitcoin is looking for a new box oscillation range. Whether it will fill the 6w gap or not, it actually has no impact on the judgment of the entire third quarter. We know that the speculation expectation of the interest rate cut has been advanced, and the ETF of ETH will be passed this month, which means that July and August are the last buying point and the last opportunity to get on board.

Data from this morning showed that the Bitcoin balance of ETFs hit a record high of more than 900,636 BTC. Similarly, the continuous net inflow of ETFs has exceeded 10 days, which also represents the expectations of the entire market for the future market. We can also see from the price of the currency that it is relatively difficult to do short-term trading in the past two days, and the bullish sentiment remains, so except for short-term profit-taking, there is no reason to sell long-term positions here. $BTC $ETH $BNB

BTC's big gap has appeared. Will it be filled?

With the support of four major positive factors, BTC hit 65,000 US dollars this morning and started a short retracement at noon. Just like our analysis, last week's CPI, as a key turning point, confirmed the turning point of the potential second half of the bull market.

With the support of the four major positive factors, such as the Fed's expectations of rate cuts, the shock cycle is close to completion, Trump's bid for the White House continues to ferment, and the Ethereum ETF will be launched next week, we have reason to expect an earlier bull market, and the advance of the expectation of rate cuts means that it may be earlier than the fourth quarter, that is, it may come at the end of the third quarter, that is, September.

After confirming the big trend and direction, we can see from the form that both Bitcoin and Ethereum have potential CME gaps. Bitcoin's gap is around 58,000-60,000 US dollars, while Ethereum's gap is between 3150-3250.

According to past experience, and even the experience of the big trend, such a gap is completely necessary and reasonable to fill, so if you haven't got on the train, you can try to place a larger order at this position. If you have a position, this is also a good point to cover the position.

Finally, let us look forward to the arrival of the next Altseason! $BTC $ETH $BNB

Can you fly all over the country? The evening CPI data tells everything!

Seeing that all the female KOLs in the circle of friends can fly all over the country, and male KOLs are also complaining about profit withdrawal and contract liquidation, I know that in this bull market, the number of people who make money is far less than the number of people who lose money.

Why don’t we do a DAO event and gather everyone together to keep warm. The first event will be held in Beijing where our studio is located. If you have any ideas, just go to the homepage +.

In addition, tonight’s CPI is the most critical and last dance of this week. The German selling has only left more than 10,000 BTC. If it continues to sell at this pace, there will be no more than one left in about a week. On the other hand, the continuous buying of ETFs in the past three working days has successfully protected the market, so it is just a matter of reversing after all the bad news has been released.

In addition, Trump will speak at the Bitcoin Conference on July 27! In other words, the potential good news in July may be coming! Although the election trend has become subtle, it is not ruled out that he will publish some documents supporting cryptocurrency, so on the whole, today's CPI data may be a catalyst for the change, and the follow-up in July will become more optimistic.
$BTC $ETH $BNB #CPI数据 #美联储何时降息？

ETH 2024 vs BTC 2023 History Repeats! ?

As shown in the figure, the left picture is the consolidation range of Bitcoin from April to October last year. After experiencing two downward paths, it started the ETF speculation in the first few months with a 200% pull-up.

The right picture is the current position of ETH. It has also completed two rounds of declines from April to now. The trend can be said to be extremely similar, and it is currently on the eve of the approval of the ETF, so it is not difficult to speculate whether it is possible that last year's BTC is the current ETH.

Although we are not so optimistic about the current macro sentiment and news, whether from the perspective of currency prices or indicators, we are already in a state where we can layout and increase positions, so will July usher in a bigger rhythm for ETH! Wait and see! $BTC $ETH $BNB #美联储何时降息？ #EthereumEFT #牛市前兆

80 days after Bitcoin halving: Has it fallen to the right place! ?

On the 80th day after this Bitcoin halving, the price of BTC reached 57,000 US dollars, with a daily increase of 3%, ushering in a rebound after the second bottoming out, which can be said to have brought some bullish sentiment to the market.

From the figure, it is not difficult to see that the so-called potential pull-up after halving has always existed, and the big drop after halving is indeed happening, and the decline is close to the expected range of 30%. From the perspective of the currency price alone, such a retracement is actually in place, and the recent bad news has been frequent, whether it is Mentougou or Germany selling coins, it now seems to be a possibility for the market to control expectations.

So let us review the recent macro level again. Whether it is the slowdown in the inflow of institutional purchases or the lack of liquidity in the market, the macro expectations are very weak. According to the recently released interest rate hike path dot plot, Federal Reserve officials predict that the median federal funds rate will drop to 5.1 by the end of the year, which means that the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year will be postponed, and it may also be a change from 2 to 1, less than the previously predicted 2 times.

Under the influence of many negative news, Bitcoin has only reached 5.4w USD in the short term, and this position is only one step away from the bottom of 4.9-5.1 as we said. It is impossible to predict how long it will take to digest the selling pressure, but the Fed's interest rate cut in the future is definitely fundamental, that is to say, it is certain, it is just a matter of expectation.

From the current market point of view, the increase in the price of the currency is basically dominated by the information side. A short-term data can fluctuate up and down by more than 5 points, which also reflects the uncertainty of the long and short positions of funds from the side. The most direct improvement is actually to continue a positive and complete the entry of macro liquidity, and then the biggest one. #BTC下跌分析 #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ $BTC $ETH $BNB

Germany continues to sell! ? CME gap filled!

Let's get to the point. With the impact of the interest rate cut news in the morning, the market experienced another sharp drop in a short period of time. Bitcoin has touched 5.4w US dollars again, which means that the CME gap of 5.4w has been filled. In addition, it is noted that the large amount of greedy longs who bought the bottom before have been liquidated.

In fact, the oscillation of the big cake at the position of 5-6w, which is the stage of long-short game, announced that a new fund reset has started. Many long-term investors and institutions are re-matching their positions. This is also a key node. We can pay attention to the dynamics of the bull market in the second half of the year through the whale's position adjustment, sale or purchase.

In addition, seeing that Germany is transferring BTC to the exchange again, although this news is bearish, the emotional side will not fluctuate after releasing these news many times, and it is not enough to affect the market. So how will the bull market go in the second half? The new layout is open! Friends can get it after +! #BTC☀ #德国政府转移比特币 #美国6月非农数据高于预期 #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #牛市到来 $BTC $BNB $ETH

When you are all cursing Sun Ge, he is the only one who is still thinking about this market
#非农就业数据即将公布 #德国政府转移比特币 #孙宇晨 #BTC☀ #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划

CME gap has been filled! Will it continue to fall below 60,000?

Bitcoin briefly fell below 60,000 USD, and came above 60,000 to retest the strong support level of 60,000. Seeing that many friends in the community can't hold the spot, and many altcoins have further fallen after being cut in half, what I want to tell you here is that if you sell the coins in your hands now, you will be a real leek.

After we experienced the selling pressure after the halving and the profit-taking during the tax season in April and May, the start of the third quarter is actually the most painful three months.

If we look at the third quarter data of the past 10 years and even the data in July, in the past 10 years, Bitcoin has risen by an average of more than 11% in July, and 7 of the 10 months have shown positive returns.

In other words, the seasonal cycle has reached a critical moment of rebounding. The first day of July, the first working day, can actually reflect the overall pace. The inflow of ETFs in the United States is close to 130 million US dollars, the highest level since early June.

Of course, this data needs to be continued. Since the rebound at the end of June, it has not been able to successfully break through 6.5w. At present, the hourly level has returned to a downward trend. The weaker Ethereum has also reached around 3,300 US dollars, indicating that this wave of rebound has completely ended. If it goes down during the day, the previous position of 5.8w of Bitcoin and 3250 of Ethereum are still the points for continuing to cover positions.

Bitcoin breaks through the descending wedge! Can the upward momentum continue?

After the monthly and quarterly closings, Bitcoin ushered in a short-term upward trend, breaking through the four-hour downward trend line, and also breaking through the downward extended wedge. If it follows a good and more hopeful trend, the target can be said to be around 7w.

If the main hype in July is concentrated on ETH, then Bitcoin plays a role in stabilizing the entire market and not pulling it down. Even if it holds the 6w position, we are willing to see it.

In the Ethereum ecosystem, ENS led the rise after being constantly called, and the rest of the cottage did not complete too much of the catch-up, so for the recent market outlook, we still continue to see shocks. If we can stand on 6w5k US dollars again, we will look for higher resistance and support. $BTC $ETH $SOL

Multiple indicators diverge! A sign of bullishness!

Some people say that indicators and data are useless at this stage. It’s not that they are useless, but that the bull market we are in is more representative, and the selection of coins to transactions is more deceptive to retail investors. The lower the reference value, the more it is distorted.

In the daily data of RSI, BTC is forming a hidden bullish divergence. In addition, RSI marks the oversold area. The two previous times this happened, Bitcoin fell into a large-scale rising mode.

In addition, whether it is the ETF re-buying after a continuous half-month sell-off, or the adjustment cycle after halving, the next one or two months will usher in a new rise. Whether it falls below 6w and recovers or continues to fluctuate widely and then rises, we will eventually see a new high and higher BTC in the third quarter! $BTC $ETH $BNB #VanEck提交首个SolanaETF

Can the 120-day moving average that has been broken be recovered! ?

As shown in the figure, we do not look at any indicators or ETF data. From this MA moving average since October 2023, that is, from the trend line since the bull market, it has now reached a large-scale support position.

The MA120-day moving average that many people are looking at has actually been pressed. It is not yet known whether it is a small rebound after the break or the last chance to escape. If we look at the strength of each support, the current 6w5 US dollars is far less strong than the support of 6w, so if it falls, it is very likely to test the position close to 6w. Of course, we do not predict, but we are also prepared in this direction.

The cottage is not worth watching. It can be said that not only has it collapsed across the board, but it has almost returned to last year's level and even far below the price at the beginning of the bull market. If this round is a bull market for big cakes, then when will the cottage's outbreak that has not yet arrived be! ? Is it the fourth quarter when interest rate cuts are more appropriate? Or is it September at the end of summer as we said?

Finally, I would like to express my opinion that, so far, the alt spot market is not profitable except for the leading market, so those who cannot accept a large retracement of more than 50% should trade the alt leading market of ETH BNB.

Cut in half within a day! CRV founder was liquidated for 140 million!

The CRV lending agreement that we are familiar with, after all, could not escape the founder's liquidation of less than 0.4 US dollars, and the mortgage lending position of nearly 140 million US dollars began to be liquidated.

This is also the second time that Curve founder Michael Egorov has been liquidated recently. The last time he survived by lending to MKR and AAVE team mortgages and crazy airdrops. This time he continued to explode, which can be said to be a way out.

We have to continue to pay attention to the measures he can take. CRV is still crucial to the entire DEFI ecosystem. Now the price of the currency has reached a historical low. If CRV cannot survive, it means that DEFI's hematopoietic ability will drop a lot.

According to the current interest rate, Egorov needs to pay 60 million US dollars a year to maintain his position in Llamalend. If the price of CRV continues to fall, then his Crvusd position will continue to be liquidated. $ETH $CRV #crv

ASI merger announced postponement! Can you still buy after the bad news?

According to the official accounts of FET and the three project parties, the merger of ASI was postponed to July 15 due to insufficient preparation. It can be said that the bad news has landed, and many people are complaining, and the price of the currency has also reached the bottom.

The most feedback we see on Twitter is that the communication and notification in the ASI merger are not good, which is also one of the reasons for the collapse of the faith of these holders: announcing the postponement on the day of the merger is something that will make many people disappointed in the expected landing, so in terms of transparency and communication, the merger of the three project parties this time is not satisfactory, and it is indeed reflected in the price of the currency.

However, what I want to express is that in the field of AI, Ocean's old project party, AGIX and FET are almost leading AI projects, and are actually doing AI things (AGIX has just cooperated with Trace Lab on DKG digital twins). Such a huge three-in-one, which is also the three-in-one of the top ten projects in this track, is indeed not as easy as imagined.

But once this expectation is realized and ASI is online, it will definitely be a position that no one can shake. RNDR, ARKM or WLD, which can be compared with it, have their own advantages and disadvantages, especially the criticized WLD (which is also the only AI sector project I chose to sell), which does not have the ability to directly occupy the leading position in the AI ​​field. At present, this seat is still reserved for ASI.

Therefore, after more than 100 days of re-accumulation (pause/preparation) stage, we not only have to wait for a month, but also need to give them more patience to perform better in this bull market. One thing I emphasized recently in the adjustment is: the bull market relay adjustment for 2-3 months is a normal and normal adjustment range. Don't scare yourself for nothing and hand over all your chips, that is really falling at dawn. $FET $AGIX $OCEAN #美联储利率决策即将公布

Will BTC continue to fall? Where will it fall?

At present, BTC has stayed in the ATH area for three months, that is, 14 weeks on the weekly chart. During this period, the lowest point only briefly hit 56,000 US dollars, and the rest did not fall below the strong support of 60,000 US dollars. It can be said that from the perspective of BTC, it is not only resistant to falling, but also has achieved the desired effect of ETF + halving.

If we compare it with ETH, we can see more clearly that BTC's strength has always existed, and ETH's short-term pull-up only stayed for less than two weeks and returned to its original form in these few days. It is undeniable that from the perspective of trading operations, I am still buying the best targets in the Ethereum series including OP, but the currency price feedback shows that Ethereum has indeed returned to a very weak state.

We say that June and July are the last two months before the launch of the Ethereum ETF, and it is highly likely that it will be launched on the exchange in the third quarter. During this vacuum period, it is nothing more than suppressing the chips, making everyone homogenized in panic, and then conducting the final hype, so this is also the reason why I mentioned the above-mentioned increase in OP.

Finally, back to BTC, there is still room for a correction at present. It seems that funds are more inclined to wait for the release of CPI data on Wednesday. From the online point of view, the two points of support below 6.68w and 6.46w are the best retracement points. Similarly, if today's rebound can stand at 6.8w, we will continue to see whether the four-hour line of the decline will be broken. Finally, I hope that the hot June we are looking forward to will come earlier. $BTC $ETH $BNB #美联储利率决策即将公布

Will the same trend come after this wave of decline? ?

Currently, Bitcoin is still on the rising trend line since May on the daily chart. After testing this pressure level twice, it still has not fallen below 69,000 USD.

Judging from yesterday's amplitude, no matter what the reason, the result is that the interest rate cut may be postponed this year, which may be postponed from the expected August or September, that is, the third quarter, to the beginning of the fourth quarter. This is the possibility given directly by the currency price.

In addition, from the four-hour line level, is it possible to replicate the market in February and March after falling below the second support of 67,000 USD? It is not impossible. $BTC $ETH $BNB

The non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data for the week are coming!

Taken together, one is good news and the other is bad news. The non-farm payrolls show that interest rates can be cut later, while the unemployment rate supports an earlier rate cut. The two data produce contradictory expected conclusions. So in summary, risk assets fell a bit, but more configurations were not affected.

Why is an epic bull market about to begin?

At present, the price of Bitcoin has regained its foothold at 70,000 U.S. dollars. It has ushered in an important moment in the process of impacting 7.30,000 U.S. dollars. That is, tonight’s two super data, unemployment rate and non-agricultural employment population, are bullish. It is destined to face huge fluctuations.

In fact, it is not difficult to see from the figure that the BTC price has completely escaped the shackles of search traffic in this bull market. The current price is actually near the historical high, but the search volume has shown a significant downward trend.

Although Bitcoin is becoming known to everyone, the simple fact is that after a certain level of awareness, the price of the currency is no longer affected by information dissemination. Therefore, this is destined to be a bull market driven by institutions. We may still be in the early to middle stages of this process, but there is less and less time left for us to make plans.

In the current expectations of interest rate cuts, we can see that although the market has been consolidating for more than two months, the price has never fallen below 60,000 US dollars. It just pulled back quickly when the pin was inserted. It can be said that the short-term adjustment after the halving has ended, and the next step is to see whether the unilateral trend can run to new highs and higher points. $BTC $ETH $BNB #山寨季何时到来？