Many people say that investing in Bitcoin and virtual currencies is not illegal in the country, but almost every domestic investor has an original sin. This reasoning is similar to doing business domestically; conducting business is legal, but if you follow domestic laws and honestly pay taxes and social security for employees, you basically cannot make a profit. Therefore, as long as you are making money in business, there is essentially original sin, which is also the fundamental reason why most wealthy people eventually emigrate. The same reasoning applies to every Bitcoin and virtual currency investor who needs to deposit and withdraw funds; there are fundamentally no legal channels for such transactions. Thus, every Bitcoin and virtual currency investor also bears original sin. This is also the reason why many Bitcoin and virtual currency investors ultimately emigrate abroad to open accounts. Why can’t we reflect on these unreasonable laws?

For the trend of Bitcoin in 2025, almost all institutional analysts predict it to be very optimistic. The vast majority of analyses predict that Bitcoin can rise to $120,000 to $150,000, and there is even a small portion predicting it can rise to over $200,000. Personally, I would like to take a contrary view. In fact, the current market capitalization of Bitcoin has already grown quite large, and the main source of market momentum comes from the US stock market. Therefore, the trend in 2025 will largely align with the US stock market. I am not optimistic about the performance of the US stock market in the new year. First, the Federal Reserve's interest rates remain high. Although there will be three rate cuts in the fourth quarter of 2024, US Treasury yields continue to rise, which poses a serious threat to the stock market. Additionally, the US economy has already been in a high-interest-rate environment for about two years, showing signs of fatigue. Therefore, after experiencing two years of bull markets in 2023 and 2024, it is possible that the US stock market may enter a correction bear market in 2025. If there is a correction in the US stock market in 2025, will Bitcoin also face a correction year after experiencing several-fold increases in 2024? Thus, $108,888 could indeed be the peak in 2025, and the majority of time in 2025 may oscillate and stabilize between $78,888 and $108,888. Of course, this judgment is only valid if it can break below $88,888 in January, so the first half of January is a crucial time point to see if it can effectively break below $92,888.

No matter how much the media exaggerates, I personally will never hold Bitcoin for the long term. Various media analysts are now predicting that Bitcoin will break through $150,000, $500,000, $1,000,000, or even $10,000,000, as if holding one Bitcoin means you'll never have to worry about food and drink for the rest of your life. However, as a seasoned professional in both the finance and computer industries, I am very aware of the significant technical unpredictability of Bitcoin. If the so-called limit of 21 million can be guaranteed for the long term or even indefinitely, and if public investment enthusiasm can be maintained over the long term, then these predictions might indeed come true, but the probability of risks arising is also very high. I personally prefer to hold a large amount of gold and U.S. stocks. After all, gold is a physical asset that has been validated for its scarcity over thousands of years, while U.S. stocks have proven their long-term bull market over more than a century, with simple and clear underlying logic. Bitcoin might reach one million dollars, but it could also end up being worth nothing. Why should I take that risk? Of course, taking advantage of the momentum for short-term trading is definitely possible; when you make a profit, it's wise to secure it!

In December, Bitcoin closed with an upper shadow bearish candlestick, indicating that a top pattern has formed. Although there is still a high possibility of surging above 100,000 in January and experiencing volatile market conditions, the overall direction is definitely downwards for adjustment. In terms of operations, it is still recommended to sell high and buy low, but breaking the previous high is quite difficult while breaking the previous low is relatively easy. I believe my predictions are still quite accurate. The trading volume of Bitcoin has also clearly shrunk, with no new funds entering the speculation, so definitely do not chase the highs.

Expecting altcoin season is actually like expecting a surge in A-shares. In fact, Bitcoin is like the U.S. stock market, and it will only continue to rise. On the other hand, altcoins are like A-shares, which will only stagnate in the long run, with only structural market movements in specific sectors. The biggest difference between the U.S. stock market and A-shares is that the U.S. stock market has a limited number of asset stocks, while A-shares are financing tools where stocks can be issued infinitely, ultimately becoming a tool for harvesting retail investors. Do you choose to invest in the U.S. stock market or A-shares?

Do not expect the domestic market to lift the restrictions on Bitcoin and virtual currency trading, because lifting the restrictions on Bitcoin means free foreign exchange conversion, and many people do not understand what foreign exchange control means at all. In fact, the biggest privilege in the country is the foreign exchange privilege, because the value of the RMB and personal benefits become meaningless once they reach a certain level. There is no limit to how much you can have, but foreign exchange must be earned back through manufacturing, which is also a necessary condition for a smooth landing for future generations. Therefore, foreign exchange control cannot possibly be lifted, and Bitcoin and virtual currencies cannot possibly be released; anyone who dares to bet can try.

Regarding the termination of USDT's application in the EU market on December 30, it is believed that USDT must have weighed the pros and cons. The key is that according to EU requirements, a large amount of customer data from Asia, especially from Chinese customers, must be provided, which will lead to the loss of many customers. There are gains and losses! Moreover, USDT's transparency is indeed lacking!

The Federal Reserve will have another action in 2025 that is more important than cutting interest rates. Almost no analysts are paying attention to this issue. That is exiting QT. As we all know, in addition to raising and lowering interest rates, the Federal Reserve’s more important function is to regulate the liquidity of the US dollar, that is, quantitative easing QE and quantitative tightening QT. A very strange phenomenon in this interest rate cut cycle is that it has not exited QT for a long time, and it is still withdrawing US dollar liquidity at a scale of 30 billion US dollars every month. This has a great impact on the market U.S. Treasury bond interest rates and the US dollar. Logically, the Federal Reserve should have begun to consider exiting QT and stop withdrawing US dollars from the market. This action will bring about large fluctuations in Bitcoin.

MSTR, a clear-cut bull, is most likely to be blocked by funds and will surely die in the future. Once it goes bankrupt, a huge amount of Bitcoin will be sold all at once. Bitcoin is still in its rising period, so there is no big problem for the time being. The debt and cash flow problems can be covered up. Once it enters the adverse period, MSTR's tight cash flow and high debt problems will be exposed all at once. Let's see if my prediction is accurate.

During the Christmas period, altcoins will experience a rebound, and the reason is simple: platforms like Binance and OKEx are closed during U.S. stock market hours, and investors cannot trade ETFs and MSTR. During this time, Bitcoin will not experience significant fluctuations, making it an ideal opportunity to speculate on altcoins for profit. Therefore, altcoins will surge before Christmas week and then drop significantly afterward, completing a short-term fluctuation. Be cautious of risks when chasing highs; it's a quick in-and-out strategy. Once U.S. stock investors return from their holidays, Bitcoin may experience significant volatility again.

Many people know that the biggest driver of this Bitcoin bull market is BlackRock, and that MSTR's largest shareholder is also BlackRock and Vanguard. But have people considered that BlackRock manages $10 trillion in assets, while Vanguard manages $7 trillion? Logically, if they casually invested $100 billion in Bitcoin, the price could easily rise above $200,000. So why are they hesitant? Instead, they are using MSTR as a firewall, indirectly borrowing $20-30 billion to buy Bitcoin? This indicates that they do not have full confidence in Bitcoin's future, or they see some risks that we do not understand. A $100 billion investment is really a small amount for two companies with $20 trillion in assets. Have people thought this through? A rise of Bitcoin to $200,000 is not a certain event.

Anyone who analyzes the current market trends based on past performance is essentially wasting their time; such people lack even the most basic common sense. The total market value of virtual currencies has now reached four trillion dollars. How could it possibly multiply several times like in the past? It's absurd that some people still hope for Bitcoin to double or for altcoins to increase tenfold. Do they really believe that the market value of virtual currencies could exceed that of U.S. stocks and bonds? Only a fool would believe that.

For the past two weeks, I have been emphasizing the reality of Bitcoin's impending peak. Unfortunately, many people still refuse to believe it, and some continue to chase higher prices with full positions at the peak. I believe that the recent decline will awaken more people. 2024 is indeed a big bull market for Bitcoin, rising from a bottom of 15,000 to a maximum of 108,000, nearly a sevenfold increase, with trading volume also surging to over 100 billion dollars. I personally do not deny that virtual currencies may expand their market value in the future, but this will take several years to develop gradually; it cannot be achieved in just a month or two. The survival ecosystem of Bitcoin and virtual currencies is still very unhealthy and requires a lot of regulations and oversight. Most platforms are not publicly listed and there are severe practices of manipulating and harvesting retail investors. Therefore, it indeed needs to cool down for a while, waiting for more commercial promotions of virtual currencies and for more platforms to go public and accept regulation, so that the market value can progress further! The next few months will mainly be characterized by volatility, and in January, it will drop below 88,000 and undergo wide-ranging fluctuations downwards!

When encountering a rebound, just seize the opportunity to sell.

Bitcoin falling below one hundred thousand dollars is an inevitable event! Believe it or not!

In the past few days, it has been emphasized that there will be no interest rate cuts in the first quarter, and the peak of Bitcoin has arrived, but unfortunately, many people do not believe it and continue to chase the highs.

From the diagram below, we can see how similar the shape of Bitcoin's peak of 73,900 points in March this year is to this month? After a significant increase over a month, it formed an upper shadow, and as a result, deep adjustments began the following month, taking half a year to rise again to a new high. This time, the increase in November was enormous, and at the same time, a huge amount of trapped positions accumulated above one hundred thousand dollars. Therefore, the adjustment in January should exceed 20%, and we can see it below 88,000 points.

It is clear that Bitcoin is already at the end of its strength. The most obvious evidence is that the previous high of 104,000 is only 4,000 points away from the most recent high of 108,000. The key point is that it took 15 days in between. To know that in the entire month of November, which has 30 days, Bitcoin actually rose more than 30,000 points, averaging 1,000 points a day. Therefore, the recent rise of only 4,000 points in the last two weeks is already a sign of the end of the bull market with stagnation!

The more chips trapped in the range above one hundred thousand dollars, the better; this way, the top will be more effective, and the resistance range formed later can last longer.

After Trump took office, the U.S. Congress will pass a bill to prohibit Trump and Musk from investing in and speculating on virtual currencies and stocks during their government tenure. At that time, will Trump and Musk still be so eager to promote the U.S. government's Bitcoin reserves? Will they still work so hard to support Bitcoin as a virtual currency? They have been so vocal in promoting Bitcoin; is it truly for America or for their own interests? The political elites in the U.S. have already paid attention to this issue and proposed relevant bills. Just like the construction of the wall at the Mexico-U.S. border back in the day, which was aimed at preventing Trump’s own company from bidding, related bills were introduced to prohibit it, and the wall funding was delayed until Trump’s last year to be passed.