[Hebei Securities Regulatory Bureau: Will continue to support listed companies in carrying out upstream and downstream mergers and acquisitions of the industrial chain] According to Jinshi Data on November 17, the Hebei Securities Regulatory Bureau stated that it is necessary to deeply understand the support policies of the capital market and continue to support listed companies in carrying out upstream and downstream mergers and acquisitions of the industrial chain around the development strategy of the new district to enhance industrial synergy effects; encourage state-owned enterprises to use the capital market platform to promote mixed ownership reform and improve the efficiency of state-owned capital operation. At the same time, actively explore the REITs pilot, revitalize the existing assets of the new district, encourage financial institutions to innovate bond financing tools, provide diversified financial support for the construction of new district projects, and broaden the source of funds for infrastructure construction. (Securities Times) (Reprinted from: Jinshi Data)
[Duan Yongping increased his holdings in Pinduoduo and Occidental Petroleum, reduced his holdings in Apple, Li Lu reduced his holdings in Apple, and established a new position in a loss-making oilfield stock] According to Jinshi Data on November 17, with the disclosure of the 13F holdings of institutional investors in the US stock market in the third quarter, the holdings of Duan Yongping and Li Lu, who have attracted much attention in the Chinese investment circle, have also been revealed one after another. As of the end of the third quarter, the combined market value of the two major investors' holdings in US stocks reached US$19 billion, and both of them made important moves in the third quarter. Among them, the H&H International Investment Fund, which is believed to be managed by Duan Yongping, significantly increased its holdings in Pinduoduo and Occidental Petroleum, reduced its holdings in Apple, and cleared its holdings in Bank of America; Li Lu's Himalaya Fund also reduced its holdings in Apple, and also established a new position in a loss-making oilfield stock. It is worth noting that Duan Yongping has also frequently bought Tencent and Pinduoduo recently, selling 1,000 Tencent puts every day. Due to Trump's election, the market is worried that the trade war will cause pressure on Chinese concept stocks, but Duan Yongping took the opportunity to continuously increase his holdings in Tencent, and also bluntly stated that Tencent Insurance Company is open. (China Securities) (Reprinted from: Jinshi Data)
[ByteDance's valuation reaches about $300 billion] According to a person familiar with the matter, ByteDance's valuation is about $300 billion, which is near its historical high, and the valuation is expected to grow further. Recently, ByteDance has implemented a repurchase. (The Wall Street Journal) (Reprinted from: Jinshi Data)
[David Tepper: Chinese stock positions are close to 40%] According to Jinshi Data on November 16, Appaloosa Asset Management, a fund under hedge fund legend David Tepper, increased its investment in Chinese stocks from 26% at the end of the previous quarter to 38%, and significantly increased its holdings of Chinese concept stocks such as Pinduoduo, JD.com, and Beike. Among them, Pinduoduo increased its holdings by as much as 3.36 million shares, reaching 5.3 million shares at the end of the quarter, with a holding value of US$715 million. At the same time, the above-mentioned funds reduced their holdings of Alibaba, Baidu, China Large Cap ETF (FXI), and China Overseas Internet ETF (KWEB) by a relatively small amount. It is worth mentioning that Alibaba's stock price rose by nearly 50% in the third quarter. Although Appaloosa partially reduced its holdings, the proportion of the stock's holdings by market value has increased. (China Securities Journal) (Reprinted from: Jinshi Data)
Weekly Outlook: Strong economy suppresses the Fed's room for rate cuts, is it too early for gold to bottom out?
The Republican Party's three-game winning streak in the White House and both houses of Congress this week added fuel to the "Trump deal", but at the same time strong US economic and inflation data continued to reshape market expectations for the speed and extent of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.
On Friday, as economic data such as U.S. retail sales exceeded expectations, traders increased their bets that the Federal Reserve would suspend interest rate cuts in December, and the market generally showed a hawkish reaction. U.S. stocks fell collectively, with the S&P 500 index falling 2.08% for the week, the Nasdaq index fell 3.15%, the largest weekly drop in more than two months, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.24%. As the list of Trump's cabinet members was released one after another, there were earthquakes of varying degrees in parts of Wall Street. For example, the nomination of Robert Kennedy Jr., a famous "anti-vaccine pioneer", as the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services has caused the stock prices of several vaccine manufacturers to fall for two consecutive days.
[my country ranks second in the world in the number of new drugs under development, and will promote the transformation and upgrading of the pharmaceutical industry in the future] Jinshi Data reported on November 16 that it was learned from the 2024 China Pharmaceutical Industry Development Conference held in Shanghai today that my country currently ranks second in the world in the number of new drugs under development. Statistics from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology show that since the beginning of this year, 37 innovative drugs and 51 innovative medical devices have been approved for listing in my country, and the number of new drugs under development has jumped to second in the world. Jin Zhuanglong, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that it is necessary to accelerate the industrialization process of major innovative products, coordinate the supplementation and strengthening of the chain, and solidly carry out collaborative research and development of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain to promote the transformation of cutting-edge technologies such as biosynthesis, gene editing, and AI pharmaceuticals. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that in the next step, it will promote the transformation and upgrading of the pharmaceutical industry, enhance the production and supply capacity of medicines, strengthen the research and development and production of clinically short-supply drugs, children's drugs, and drugs for rare diseases, increase production capacity reserves, and further expand the opening and cooperation of the pharmaceutical industry. (Reprinted from: Jinshi Data)
[Zhiji Auto, NVIDIA and Momenta will cooperate to launch mass-produced intelligent driving solutions based on DRIVE AGX Thor chips] According to Jinshi Data on November 16, on November 15, Zhiji Auto, NVIDIA and Momenta signed a tripartite cooperation agreement to launch mass-produced intelligent driving solutions based on NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Thor chips. It is reported that the solution will be first installed on Zhiji Auto's mass-produced models in 2025. The mass-produced intelligent driving solution released this time not only covers all ADAS functions, but also supports advanced intelligent driving functions such as HNP high-speed elevated navigation assistance, UNP city navigation assistance, and LPNP memory parking navigation assistance. (Interface) (Reprinted from: Jinshi Data)
[RMB exchange rate: 7.30 may be a critical position] According to Jinshi Data on November 16, the demand for foreign exchange settlement by enterprises increases near the end of the year, which often boosts the appreciation of the RMB. However, the recent trend of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has made many people who need to settle foreign exchange want to "wait a little longer." Analysis points out that in the short term, the key position of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar may be around 7.30. If the exchange rate reaches this level, the People's Bank of China may take counter-cyclical adjustment actions, resolutely correct pro-cyclical behavior, prevent the market's unilateral expectations from self-reinforcing, and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable. (Economic Observer) (Reprinted from: Jinshi Data)
[Jin Zhuanglong: Further comprehensively deepen the reform in the field of industry and information technology to inject strong impetus into the promotion of new industrialization] Jinshi Data reported on November 16 that Jin Zhuanglong, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, published on Qiushi.com (Further comprehensively deepen the reform in the field of industry and information technology to inject strong impetus into the promotion of new industrialization). It proposed to improve the system for promoting the deep integration of informatization and industrialization. Seize the opportunity of digital technology transformation, promote the construction of a system and mechanism to promote the development of the digital economy, and continue to do a good job in the deep integration of informatization and industrialization. Accelerate the digital transformation of the manufacturing industry, "points", "lines" and "surfaces" work together to create corporate benchmarks, promote chain transformation, build digital parks and smart clusters, and accelerate the popularization and application of new generation information technology in all directions and chains. Promote artificial intelligence to empower new industrialization, consolidate the technical foundation, develop intelligent products, cultivate a number of general large models and industry large models, carry out the "artificial intelligence + manufacturing" action, and select key industries to create 100 application scenarios and 1,000 benchmark enterprises. Vigorously develop a new generation of information technology industries represented by new generation mobile communications, integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, advanced computing, industrial software, big data, blockchain, satellite Internet, etc., and create a number of digital industry clusters with international competitiveness. Promote high-quality development of the information and communications industry, promote the large-scale deployment and application of 5G, gigabit optical networks, mobile Internet of Things, IPv6, etc., accelerate the systematic development of the industrial Internet, build a national integrated computing power system, and strengthen the security protection capabilities of network infrastructure. (Reprinted from: Jinshi Data)
[Jinshi Data Compilation: Daily Technology News Express (November 16)] New Energy Vehicles: 1. Zhiji Auto: Creating the industry's first mass-produced Thor chip intelligent driving solution. 2. The BYD Denza Z9 was officially launched at the Guangzhou Auto Show. 3. Lei Jun: Xiaomi SU7 is expected to deliver more than 20,000 units in November this year. 4. Wenjie made its debut at the Guangzhou Auto Show, and its new generation of super range extender system was officially released. 5. Changan Automobile: Invest more than 50 billion yuan in five years and release a flying car in 2026. 6. U.S. Energy Secretary Granholm: Canceling electric vehicle tax credits will be counterproductive. 7. NIO announced that it will start business in the Azerbaijan market.
[Multiple models go hand in hand, and innovative drugs go overseas with frequent success] According to Jinshi Data on November 16, there have been continuous news about domestic innovative drugs going overseas recently: Merck obtained the global exclusive license for Lixin Pharmaceutical's PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody LM-299 with a down payment of US$588 million; BioNTech acquired 100% of the issued share capital of Promis with an advance payment of US$800 million; Wellizbo announced the establishment of a new drug research and development company with Aditum Bio to achieve product internationalization in the NewCo (establishment of a new company) model. Industry insiders said that the vast overseas pharmaceutical market is attracting Chinese biopharmaceutical companies to go global. At present, License-Out (overseas authorization), mergers and acquisitions, NewCo and other overseas models go hand in hand, jointly promoting domestic innovative drugs to the international market. It is worth mentioning that since the beginning of this year, Wellizbo, Hengrui Medicine, Conoya and many other companies have achieved the export of innovative products through the NewCo model. More and more Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies have gradually acquired R&D capabilities and product pipelines that are in line with international standards, and have integrated into the diversified ecosystem of the global biopharmaceutical industry with innovative products. (China Securities Journal) (Reprinted from: Jinshi Data)
[Futian Laboratory and the Greater Bay Area Ascend Computing Power Application Innovation Research Institute are officially listed] According to Jinshi Data on November 15, the 2024 Xili Lake Forum opened in Shenzhen. At the opening ceremony and main forum, Futian Laboratory and the Greater Bay Area Ascend Computing Power Application Innovation Research Institute were officially launched. This is a major practice for scientific research institutions and leading enterprises to jointly build an innovation platform, supporting the "dual-pillar" computing power system of Ascend's independent technology architecture and international mainstream technology architecture to be launched in Shenzhen. The reporter learned at the meeting that Futian Laboratory is a collaboration between IDEA Research Institute and Tencent, focusing on the field of embodied intelligence in human settlements and committed to creating the most cutting-edge embodied intelligence innovation platform. In recent years, Shenzhen has included artificial intelligence into the city's 20 strategic emerging industry clusters for key cultivation, and took the lead in issuing the country's first artificial intelligence industry promotion regulations. Through the comprehensive policy of "policy traction + factor supply + ecological cultivation + scenario empowerment", Shenzhen is building a national artificial intelligence innovation application pilot zone and a national new generation artificial intelligence innovation and development pilot zone with high standards, and is fully accelerating the construction of a global artificial intelligence pioneer city. (Shanghai Securities News) (Reprinted from: Golden Ten Data)
[Jinshi Data Compilation: Summary of important news in European and American markets on November 15] Domestic News 1. The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued (Guidelines for the Supervision of Listed Companies No. 10 - Market Value Management) to promote the investment value of listed companies to reasonably reflect the quality of listed companies. 2. Ministry of Commerce: From January to October, the country attracted RMB 693.21 billion in foreign investment. 3. The Ministry of Commerce held a special roundtable meeting on the implementation of the 24 measures on foreign investment. 4. Two departments: Cancel the export tax rebate for aluminum, copper and other products, and reduce the export tax rebate rate for some refined oil, photovoltaics, batteries, etc. to 9%. 5. The Cyberspace Administration of China issued the "Guidelines for the Construction of Mobile Internet Mode for Minors".
Fed's Goolsbee: Rates may be much lower in the next 12 to 18 months
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that as long as inflation continues to fall toward the Fed's 2% target, interest rates will be significantly lower in the next 12-18 months.
Still, Goolsbee agreed with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that policymakers are in no rush to cut interest rates.
“As long as we continue to move toward our 2% inflation goal, interest rates will be much lower over the next 12 to 18 months than they are today,” Goolsbee said.
The Chicago Fed chief said it makes sense to slow down rate cuts at a time when uncertainty is about the neutral rate, the level of interest rates that neither stimulates nor depresses the economy.
[From December 1, the export tax rebate rate for some photovoltaic products will be reduced from 13% to 9%. What impact will it have on enterprises?] According to Jinshi Data on November 15, industry insiders believe that under the fierce market competition, it is difficult for enterprises to fully pass on the increased costs by raising product prices, and the profit margins of enterprises will be squeezed to a certain extent. Those enterprises with low technical levels, low production efficiency, and weak cost control capabilities will face greater survival pressure and may even be eliminated by the market. In fact, since the photovoltaic industry entered a temporary stage of imbalance between supply and demand last year, the prices of export products have continued to decline, and the prices of photovoltaic modules in most markets have dropped to US$0.08/W to US$0.09/W. An insider of a photovoltaic company told reporters: "The reduction in the export tax rebate rate for some photovoltaic products will lead to an increase in the overall cost of the industry and pass it on to downstream. Enterprises need to be more self-reliant." (Yicai) (Reprinted from: Jinshi Data)
Wall Street tycoons warn: Powell cannot solve the stagflation problem!
Peter Schiff, a veteran Wall Street investor and well-known economist, analyzes two events, including Trump's decisive victory and the Federal Reserve's announcement of another interest rate cut. Peter opposes the unlimited economic optimism of Trump's supporters and criticizes Powell's position on the independence of the Federal Reserve and his astonishing indifference to the possibility of stagflation in the future.
Peter begins by highlighting the awkward trade-off between taxation and government spending. Trump has promised new tax cuts, but these must be offset by spending cuts or the national debt will swell even more out of control.
[Several foreign banks assist the Ministry of Finance of China in issuing US dollar sovereign bonds] According to Jinshi Data on November 15, on November 13, local time, the Ministry of Finance of China successfully issued a book of US$2 billion in sovereign bonds in Riyadh, the capital of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The types of investors in this US dollar sovereign bond are rich and warmly welcomed by the market, and international investors subscribe enthusiastically. The reporter learned from Citi on the 15th that Citi served as a joint bookrunner and joint manager in this issuance. Xin Baolian, Acting President of Citi Group China, emphasized: "This transaction is another milestone sovereign bond issuance by the Ministry of Finance of China. For this US dollar sovereign bond, the Ministry of Finance of China once again adopted the dual rules of RegS/144A, which attracted great attention from global investors and provided valuable reference for the pricing of future Chinese corporate issuers." HSBC announced on the 15th that it served as a joint lead underwriter and joint bookrunner in this issuance. Wang Yunfeng, President and CEO of HSBC Bank (China) Co., Ltd., said: "As two major emerging markets, the economic development of China and the Middle East is highly compatible and complementary. The continuous warming of economic and trade exchanges has also expanded the space for financial cooperation. Among them, the cooperation between China and Saudi Arabia has been particularly significant, covering bilateral local currency swaps, stock exchange cooperation, and ETF product cooperation. "(China News Service) (Reprinted from: Jinshi Data)
[Jinshi Data Compilation: Daily U.S. Stock Market News Express (Friday, November 15)] Important News 1. The U.S. retail sales monthly rate in October was 0.4%, in line with expectations of 0.3% and the previous value of 0.4%. 2. The U.S. import price index rose 0.3% month-on-month in October, the largest increase since April 2024. The New York Fed manufacturing index in November was 31.2, the highest since December 2021. Stock News 1. Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O) must file a deferred Form 10-K annual report or submit a plan to file the form with Nasdaq by Monday, Nov. 18, to comply with exchange rules.
“Terrible data” exceeded expectations, and expectations of a Fed rate cut were “cold”!
On Thursday, the monthly rate of US retail sales in October was 0.4%, higher than the expected 0.3%, and the previous value was revised up from 0.4 to 0.8%. Retail sales grew steadily in October as US consumers showed a continued willingness to consume.
After the data was released, spot gold fell in the short term and then rose, with a short-term fluctuation of 6 US dollars; the short-term gain of the US dollar index expanded to more than 30 points; non-US currencies generally fell, with the pound falling more than 40 points against the US dollar in the short term, the euro falling more than 30 points against the US dollar in the short term, and the US dollar rising more than 50 points against the Japanese yen in the short term.
Better-than-expected retail sales data led traders to cut bets on a 2025 Federal Reserve rate cut.
Traders, don’t panic! Tariffs won’t actually impact the Fed?
Durham Abric, head of U.S. inflation at Citadel Securities, said the Fed’s path of rate cuts likely won’t be disrupted by the incoming Trump administration’s protectionist stance.
“The Fed will likely ignore the impact of tariffs because monetary policy has little impact on temporary, tariff-driven inflation,” Abric said in an interview on Wednesday.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump imposed punitive tariffs on U.S. imports during his first term, and he has made clear he will do so again when he takes office in January. While that is likely to push up consumer prices, Abric said Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his team will be eager to avoid overreacting to any potentially short-lived economic impact.