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Market Analysis 7.11

Good morning, brothers. Yesterday, Fed Chairman Powell spoke
and revealed a key point:
The Fed does not need the inflation rate to be lower than 2% before cutting interest rates
This is an implicit positive, because the Fed previously emphasized that the inflation rate must reach 2% before it starts to cut interest rates

The CPI will be released at 8:30 tonight. If it is higher than expected, it is negative, and if it is lower than expected, it is positive.

Tom Lee, known as the "Wall Street God of Calculation", predicts that the CPI will fall sharply, pushing US stocks higher.

Yesterday, BTC's spot ETF continued to flow in more than $100 million to buy the bottom

It seems to be good news, but the old saying still applies:
It will definitely rise in the long run, because the Fed is about to cut interest rates,
It may flood the market in 2025

But we will encounter such a situation:
It was rebounding well, but suddenly the German government sold coins,
The 140,000 BTC wallets in Mentougou began to transfer on a large scale again

BTC may fall by 5%, and the altcoins will fall again

So don't chase the rebound, don't go all in and fill your position
Leave some room, so that you can add positions if it falls
Otherwise, you will panic if it falls, and you will irrationally sell
Of course, don't short now, otherwise it will be very uncomfortable if it rebounds
Many altcoins have fallen from the starting point, and the price is right

July-August is not as simple as imagined,
The Mentougou crisis battle is not over yet, you have to hold the currency and be patient

#BTC #CPI数据 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC

Market Analysis 7.10

Good afternoon, brothers. BTC is currently stable at $58,000.

Fed Chairman Powell's speech last night was obviously bearish,
because Powell said that "more good data" will increase people's confidence in the downward trend of inflation.
This strengthens the reason for the US to cut interest rates.

Although the price has increased to a certain extent,
but judging from the on-chain data, it is still not ideal.

(1) The BTC inventory in Binance has increased, and more people want to sell coins.

(2) The stablecoins in the exchange have decreased to a certain extent, and the bottom-fishing funds are a bit exhausted.

The funds flowing into the ETF are amazing, with an inflow of more than $200 million.

Although the German government is selling coins, the price has not fallen sharply due to the bottoming out of ETF funds.

It is still a tug-of-war, and it is time to call each other stupid again.

It is necessary to let those who want to sell coins, such as the German government, sell almost all of their coins.

And many people who did not get on the train before start to bottom-fish.

It will take a period of turnover before a new round of increases can be started.

Continue to emphasize that what we need to do now is to hold the coins and be patient.

If there is a drop, we must avoid being broken by panic emotions.

Hold on for a while, and there will be a turnaround.

It is recommended to hold the following tokens:

Chr, Stx, FTM, Zk

ETH and its three swordsmen in the sector Uni, Ens, Ssv

Japanese Ethereum Astr, Korean Ethereum Klay

Keep some money in reserve to prevent the price from falling to $52,000

#BTC #美联储何时降息？ $BTC

Market Analysis 7.9

Good morning, brothers. The market is so volatile.
Yesterday morning, the market hit the bottom and many brothers lost hope.
As a result, it rebounded immediately and many brothers shouted that the market was bullish again.
At 10 o'clock in the evening, it began to fall sharply and is now stable at $57,000.

There has been no news about Mentougou in the past few days, and it is still planning the next wave of compensation.
But the German government has become active, transferring money everywhere to try to sell coins, fearing that the world will not be in chaos.
The German government address currently holds 27,461 bitcoins, equivalent to about $1.56 billion.
The BTC held by the German government accounts for 20% of Mentougou.
In this round of sharp decline, Mentougou paid a total of less than 3,000 BTC,
but the German government actually sold coins.

The good news is that the inflow of ETF funds is obvious.
The inflow of $140 million the day before yesterday and the inflow of more than $100 million yesterday (not counted by BlackRock).

Powell will give a speech tonight and tomorrow night at 10:00, and CPI data will be released at 8:30 the day after tomorrow.

What we need to do now is to hold the coins and be patient,
avoid being broken by panic,
hold on for a while, and there will be a turnaround

It is recommended to hold the following tokens:
Chr, Stx, FTM, Zk
ETH and its three swordsmen Uni, Ens, Ssv
Japanese Ethereum Astr, Korean Ethereum Klay

Keep the bullet to cover the position, beware of falling to $54,000 again

#BTC #美联储何时降息？ $BTC

Market Analysis 7.8

Good morning, brothers. The market has returned to its previous low.
From the on-chain data, not much BTC has flowed into the exchange.
It is much less than the big drop last week.
The reason for the decline is that the funds are worried about the Mentougou news this week,
so they dumped the market in advance and ran away.
Powell will give a speech at 10:00 pm on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.
CPI data will be released at 8:30 pm on Thursday.
There are a few points we continue to emphasize

(1) The compensation for Mentougou has not yet ended
There will be negative news in the future, so don’t be aggressive in opening long contracts
I said last night that it will take 90 days for all exchanges to pay off the compensation, which is mid-October
Against this background, a small-scale rebound is possible, but a large-scale rebound is impossible
BTC is unlikely to break through $60,000

(2) A large amount of funds have begun to buy the bottom
Stablecoins in exchanges have rebounded, and ETF funds began to buy the bottom on a large scale yesterday

(3) It’s still the old conclusion
We are currently on the eve of the Fed’s rate cut. After the Mentougou incident is resolved
In 2025, global macro policies will be released, and a new bull market will start
As long as there is no contract liquidation, it may only take a week or so to rise
Be patient and endure it, and the road ahead will be smooth

(4) Don’t be too optimistic or pessimistic now
Now is the time to hold the currency patiently
When the price drops by more than 10%, it is time to buy the bottom in batches
Don’t sell at the bottom, hold on and endure, and you will usher in a turnaround
What are the turning points:
For example, the latest news from Mentougou says that more than a certain number of BTC are unclaimed
For example, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, etc.
For example, a certain value coin you bought has good news

#BTC #美联储何时降息？ #BTC走势分析 $BTC

Market Analysis 7.7

Good morning, brothers. The market has rebounded greatly.

First look at the daily chart. On the first day of the market rebound, many coins have fallen to the floor.
If you sell now, you will lose the bottom chips and cut them to the floor, so don't sell.

As mentioned before, as long as the contract is not liquidated,
it may only take a week or so to rise. From the data on the chain, BTC has not continued to flow into the exchange.
Those who were scared away by Mentougou sold a large number of them before.
Not many people want to sell from yesterday to today. The German government is still selling coins, but if there are bargain hunting funds to take them, it will not be a big problem.
Mentougou has only sold more than 1,000 coins, and there are still a lot of unpaid.
This compensation has been going on for a long period of 3 months.
There may be variables. Be careful of new developments next week. Powell will speak twice next week, and CPI data will be released on Thursday. Although it seems to be under great pressure,
but there are opportunities in crisis.
Investment is a risky thing.
You must participate and don't short.

#BTC #德国政府转移比特币 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC

📉【Market shock】US non-farm payrolls data in June exceeded expectations, and the cryptocurrency market evaporated $28.5 billion!
🇺🇸 Important economic data:
US non-farm payrolls increased by 206,000 in June, far exceeding market expectations.
📈 Monetary policy expectations:
The interest rate swap market shows that investors have fully priced in the possibility of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year.
🏛️ Government actions:
The German government sold $30,094,900 worth of BTC, which had an impact on the market.
📊 Cryptocurrency market performance:
In the past 24 hours, the total market value of cryptocurrencies has declined, BTC has fallen by 1.35%, the market amplitude has reached 6.89%, and the sentiment is biased towards fear.
🔍 Analysis and suggestions:
Strong non-farm data may affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, which in turn will have a chain reaction on the cryptocurrency market.
Investors need to pay close attention to macroeconomic data and policy trends, and rationally allocate assets to cope with market fluctuations.
#BTC #美联储何时降息？ #BTC走势分析 $BTC

Evening market live

The non-farm data was just released, the expected 19, the published 20.6, higher than expected, a small negative
The unemployment rate was 4.1%, higher than expected 4%, the highest since November 2021, a small positive
As last time, there was an abnormal phenomenon of rising unemployment rate, but the non-farm was also high
The overall result is neutral and does not affect the market much

Now compared with the Federal Reserve, the biggest impact is still Mentougou
Will there be a big drop in the next few days? It is still possible, mainly depending on when the second phase of Mentougou compensation will start
See if there will be further explanation tomorrow and the day after tomorrow
By then, tens of thousands of BTC will continue to move, and once the news ferments, it will fall again
But don't cut the meat at the bottom anyway, hold it and wait for a rebound
If you are a short-term brother, you can buy a 30% position at the bottom
#BTC #美国6月非农数据高于预期 #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 $BTC

Market Analysis 7.4

Good morning, brothers. I have been reminding you of several points in the past few days:

(1) Save money and wait for the price to fall below $59,000

(2) Don’t rush to buy the bottom or add positions

(3) Don’t sell at the bottom

The current recommendation remains unchanged

We still have to wait for the Mentougou incident to be resolved before we decide whether to add positions

Yesterday’s small non-farm data ADP was lower than expected

Previous initial claims data and PMI were also positive

Gold hit the $2,360 mark

But BTC still fell. The fundamental reason is still because of Mentougou

The impact of the recent Mentougou incident is far greater than the Fed’s policy

Pay attention to the release of non-farm data at 20:30 tomorrow night

There should be more news about the Mentougou incident next week

To summarize the strategy:
Wait for the Mentougou incident to be resolved before deciding whether to add positions

Don’t sell at the bottom, otherwise the rebound mentality will be out of control, and you will be trapped if you chase the rebound.

As long as you don’t buy high-inflation tokens, don’t be afraid to hold the spot, and you will be fine

ZK fell to 0.15 before, and it rebounded
chr fell to 0.2 at the lowest, and it rebounded.
It fell for a few weeks, and it may rise again in a few days.
#BTC #以太坊ETF批准预期 $BTC

Market Analysis 7.3

Good morning, brothers.

Last night, Powell gave a speech, saying that inflation has made considerable progress,
but he is still unwilling to let go of whether there will be a rate cut in September and when it will start!

Powell's speech is positive, gold rose, and the US dollar index DXY fell.
It should rise, but BTC fell in the opposite direction.

Yesterday, not much ETF funds flowed in.
In terms of on-chain data,
although BTC did not continue to flow into exchanges in large quantities,
it is worrying that stablecoins show the dynamics of outflow from exchanges.

So, although we are optimistic about the general rebound,
we still need to prevent the last drop,
which is why we remind everyone not to chase the rise.

This Friday at 20:30, non-agricultural data will be released.
The last time the non-agricultural data exceeded the standard abnormally, it hurt the currency circle very much.
This time it should be normal.

Although it seems to be under a lot of pressure, don't sell at the bottom,
otherwise, when things rebound, your mentality will be out of control and blame others.
The current position does not exceed 50%,
and you can continue to buy at the bottom when there is a big drop.
Inflation will always go down, Mentougou will always be solved,
Don't fail tomorrow, you can win the day after tomorrow.

#BTC #BTC走勢分析 $BTC

Market Analysis 7.1

Good morning, brothers. A new week has begun.

The current market has rebounded. Many brothers say that the bull market has returned.

Four major events to watch this week.

(1) Powell’s speech on Tuesday

(2) The US ADP employment figures for June will be released at 20:15 on Wednesday

(3) The US non-farm payrolls for June will be released at 20:30 on Friday

(4) Most importantly, there should be further news from Mentougou before July 15

Although the market has rebounded, stablecoins are still flowing out.

Don’t sell at a loss when the market falls, and chase high when the market rises.

Don’t sell at a loss when the market falls. Many altcoins have fallen to the starting point of the rise.

Keep some bullets and continue to buy at the bottom if the market falls to 59,000.

Don’t chase high when the market rises, unless you are short, there is nothing you can do.

More bullets will be released after the news from Mentougou is further released.

Big funds can directly deploy some ETH.
This is the clearest and most stable solution.

The best situation at present is that the Mentougou incident in early July will be properly resolved, compensation will be delayed or paid in batches, inflation data will decline, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut will increase, then a new round of bull market will start.

#BTC #以太坊ETF批准预期 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC

New tokens listed on Binance in 2024:

Tokens with a drop of more than 80% are: AEVO, PORTAL, STRK, SAGA, DYM;

Tokens with a drop of more than 70% are: AXL, MANTA, OMNI, PYTH, PIXEL, TNSR, ALT;

Tokens with a drop of more than 60% are: AI, BOME, WIF, XAI, JUP, METIS, REZ, ETHFI;

Tokens with a drop of more than 50% are: TAO, ENA, BB

Tokens with a drop of more than 40% are: ZRO, RON, NOT;

Tokens with a drop of more than 30% are: IO, ZK.

#BTC #美联储何时降息？ $BTC

Market Analysis 6.30

Good morning, brothers. Yesterday was Saturday and ETF trading was suspended.

Let's look at the on-chain data first:
(1) Stablecoins have rebounded a little
(2) BTC inflows into exchanges have slowed down, but are still at high levels
Current support levels: $60,000, $58,400
Resistance level: $63,000
Powell will give a speech next Tuesday
The US ADP employment figures for June will be released at 20:15 on Wednesday
The US non-farm payrolls for June will be released at 20:30 on Friday
The last data released was 275,000, much higher than the expected 200,000, which caused BTC to plummet
This time it should return to normal, not so exaggerated
In fact, the Fed's policy is not very important for the recent impact on the cryptocurrency market
The most urgent task is the Mentougou incident. BTC worth $9 billion is no joke
Even if only 1/3 flows into the market, there is still a scale of $3 billion,
enough for ETF net buying funds to inflow for more than a month to offset
Mentougou will have to release the results before July 10th, and it's about to come true

Don't buy the dip in the next few days, wait a few more days, unless you are short
We need to prevent BTC from falling below $59,000
If it falls below, don't sell the spot, and continue to buy the dip
Optional currencies: ETH, Uni, Ens, Ssv, etc.

#BTC #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 $BTC

Market Analysis 6.29

Good morning, brothers. Let's review yesterday's analysis conclusions:

"If Mentougou really pays, we must be prepared.
There is a probability of more than 70% falling below $60,000.
Now many people are recharging BTC to Binance.
When bad news comes, they will sell and run away. The selling pressure is large.
So we need to keep a lot of bullets and wait for the price to fall before buying the bottom."

After the PCE data was released yesterday, it was in line with expectations, showing that inflation is still high.
But it is lower than the previous value, a three-year low, which is a hope for the long term future.

Spot ETF funds are flowing out, mainly Grayscale and Fidelity have issued a lot of coins.

The on-chain data is not optimistic, or it is a continuation of the situation a few days ago:
Stablecoin outflows, the current stablecoins in the exchange have dropped to the low value of February (4 months ago)
That is to say, we have been speculating on coins for 4 months, and the market funds have not increased
BTC continues to flow into exchanges, mainly into Binance

Why is the market so weak? The core reason is still Mentougou
The currency circle will not be at peace until Mentougou is resolved

Rest more during this period and pay more attention to the fundamentals and dynamics of value coins
Save some bullets and wait for the Mentougou incident in July to fall before buying the bottom
Five poor, six desperate, seven turning over

#BTC #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #以太坊ETF批准预期 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC

Market Analysis 6.28

Good morning, brothers. The conclusion of the current analysis is,

"Be patient, everything will turn around when it reaches the extreme. When the market reaches the bottom, it will rebound strongly when it encounters favorable news.
Market response plan, hold a part of the coins in spot, and wait for a big drop to continue to buy the bottom."

The market rebounded yesterday, but we should not be too happy too early.
Systemic risks have not been resolved,
The Mentougou incident is still unresolved.

Yesterday, the ETF's bottom-fishing power was not strong, and only a few million US dollars flowed in.
According to the on-chain data, stablecoins did not continue to flow in, and funds were insufficient.
But BTC increased by 4,000 yesterday, mainly flowing into Binance.
Therefore, the on-chain data is bearish.

Currently, the recommended position is less than 50%.
Brothers who buy too many coins can short BCH to hedge.
Currently BCH is $387.3, and the stop loss is $391.

The PCE price index will be announced at 8:30 tomorrow night, with an expected 2.6%.
Lower than expected is positive, and higher than expected is bearish.
The market may fall below $61,000 before the data is released.
In addition, the probability of falling below $60,000 is higher if the data is negative.

If Mentougou really pays, we must be prepared.
There is a probability of falling below $60,000 of more than 70%.
Now many people recharge BTC to Binance.
When the negative news comes, they will sell off and run away. The selling pressure is relatively large.
So we need to keep a lot of bullets and wait for the price to fall before buying the bottom.
#BTC #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC

Market Analysis 6.26

Good morning, brothers. Yesterday, the altcoin rebounded to a certain extent.

The core reasons are summarized in two parts

(1) BTC is not at a high level, so there is room for altcoins to play

(2) BTC is under selling pressure. Everyone knows that Mentougou is going to crash the market.

Some funds will flow from BTC to ETH and other altcoins

From the on-chain data, stablecoins have repeatedly flowed in and out.

The market is quite divided.

Some large funds withdrew and ran away, and some large funds continued to recharge.

After the rebound, a large amount of BTC was recharged to the exchange.

Since there will be a real hammer of Mt. Gox unlocking in early July,
BTC will further pull back. I asked everyone to close BCH short orders before.
BCH will continue to short after another wave of rise.
Now is the best time to lay out Shanzhai and ETH.
There may be a pullback, but just hold it. Make up for it once it drops 5%-10%.
As long as it is not a contract, hold the spot and wait to make money.
If you don’t lay out now and short it, it is easy to miss the opportunity.
Several recommended projects:
STX, CHR, FTM, ZK, AR, etc., all have super good fundamentals.
Ignore tomorrow’s rise and fall, but long-term holding will definitely make money.
We are on the eve of the Fed’s interest rate cut.
On the eve of further popularization of cryptocurrencies.
There will be short-term pain, but if you put it in the long run, many coins will have several times the return.

#BTC #美联储何时降息？ $BTC

Market Analysis 6.25

Good morning, brothers. Yesterday, Bitcoin fell 8.1%,
falling to $58,528 at 4 a.m.,
the largest intraday drop since April 13.

But strangely, many altcoins did not break new lows,
FTM did not fall but rose instead,
it seems that altcoins also have a bottom line.

Yesterday, there was news that Mentougou paid more than $400 per BTC,
which may be fake news and needs further observation.
There should be detailed information by July 10.

BTC may fall below $60,000 again. However, altcoins may see a turnaround for two reasons. (1) BTC is not at a high level, so there is room for altcoins to play. BTC has always been at $70,000 before, and big investors are worried that BTC’s correction will cut altcoins in half. So they dare not buy. Now that BTC has fallen to $60,000, altcoins have room to rise. (2) BTC is under selling pressure, and everyone knows that Mentougou is going to crash the market. Then some funds in the market will flow from BTC to ETH and other altcoins. So from now to early July, don’t short your position. Hold 30% of your position, and then gradually increase your position in ETH and altcoins to 50%-60%. Don’t go all in at once, buy a little bit every day. If the Mentougou news causes BTC to fall to $55,000, it will be a good opportunity to buy at the bottom. Because the biggest negative factor in the cryptocurrency market in the past 10 years has been lifted, the cryptocurrency market may usher in a new wave of bull market after Mentougou. It is still the judgment I said before:
From a macro-cyclical perspective, we are currently on the eve of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle.
The day after tomorrow is beautiful, but tomorrow is cruel, and many people will fall tomorrow.
This includes abnormal economic data, the Mentougou incident, war conflicts, etc.
#BTC #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC

Accurate market analysis 6.24

Good morning, brothers. On Saturday and Sunday,
Binance spot BTC trading volume was only 1/4 of that on weekdays, and the trading volume fell sharply.

On the one hand, it can be understood as insufficient liquidity and weak rebound.
On the other hand, it can also be understood as a decline with no volume, and it is about to end.

According to the on-chain data,
the current stablecoin has fallen to the value on May 14.
Around May 14, the BTC price was also $63,000.

More than 5 Fed officials spoke this week
On Thursday, Biden and Trump held their first televised debate
On Friday, PCE data was released

After falling for half a month,
ETF funds have been net outflows for 8 consecutive days.
At present, there are three words: patience, waiting, and ruthlessness.
The next support level is $61,500, and you can add positions when it reaches it.

#BTC #ETH #币安合约锦标赛 $BTC

Market Analysis: 6.23

Next Week Outlook

Good weekend, brothers, this week is coming to an end.

Earlier this week, several weaker-than-expected economic data boosted market expectations for the Fed's September rate cut,
but Friday's PMI data showed that overall business activity remained resilient,
which may reduce the urgency of the Fed's rate cut.

This week, the Swiss National Bank started its second rate cut,
the Bank of England signaled that a rate cut was imminent,
and several Fed officials believed that there might only be one rate cut this year.

Next week is special,
because there will be no important economic data release next week,
but more than 5 Fed officials will speak.

Although it has fallen so much, BTC has not rebounded and has not broken through $65,000.
We should not take it lightly.
From the on-chain data,
BTC in the exchange has not continued to increase in the past few days,
but stablecoins have still flowed out from yesterday to today.

ETF funds have been net outflows for 8 consecutive days,
there should be capital inflows next week,
keep positions below 50% and wait for a rebound next week.
#BTC #币安合约锦标赛 $BTC