There is only more than one month left before the halving, when the bull market will officially begin

In a bull market remember:

1 Price is not important, market value & valuation are the most important
2 Technology is not important, grasping is the most important
3 Bands are not important, cycles & trends are most important
4. The flash crash closes. Buy with confidence. Be careful when the channel falls.
5. Volume is shrinking in sideways trading at low level, and volume is exploding at high level.
6. Don’t go short, don’t sell spot, all short selling is for better positioning.
7 You have to wait for sector rotation to happen, and the clouds will clear and the moon will shine.
8 Contracts are hedging tools, not means of getting rich.
9. Don’t buy small lottery tickets with big money. Don’t buy small lottery tickets with big money.
10 You can have more on the left, never empty on the left
11 There is no stop loss on today’s contract, you will deliver the food tomorrow
12. Stick to the cash to get a big pay, stick to the contract with McDonald’s
13. Large funds are controlled at different points, and small funds are concentrated on attacking.
14 Don’t buy into the unknown, don’t bet on an upset comeback
15 Seize the opportunity, this may be the last broad-based bull market we can identify

I'll add more if I think of anything else.

You guys, sometimes you are quite divided

If it rises too slowly, you should run

If it rises too fast, you should also run

If it doesn’t rise for a long time, you should run

But you told me to add to your position after it fell by 50%? ?

What can I say, you don’t study hard in school, and you don’t work hard in a decent company

You started to work hard when you were picking up garbage, which is also pretty amazing

Take only one scoop from the vast expanse of water. Only by giving can you gain.

Doing everything is the same as doing nothing.

It is enough to trade only what you understand.

The general path of trading:
Watch the market → Analyze → Give expectations → Make plans according to expectations → Make strategies according to plans

When the market starts to follow one of the expectations, the false items in the strategy will become true one by one, and all the conditions of one strategy are true = execution

The rest is to wait for the conditions of stop profit or stop loss to be met and then close the position.

Sometimes I feel like I am talking nonsense, but there is no way, this thing is just these nonsense back and forth, but this nonsense is very important, depending on the degree of realization of these nonsense, it will directly affect the subsequent trading decisions.

If you want me to say "buy at 6w, see 12w, protect 5.5w", I can't say it, I haven't learned it, I only have nonsense.

I also talked about my opinion during the live broadcast

I will take the lead in making a quick profit

I spent a lot of money when I went out the past two days #BTC

How could I go short NOT? I'm really speechless.

The risk of shorting on the left is infinite. Risk comes first and stop loss comes first when trading. With such a strong upward trend, even if you think there is not much room above it, you should stop profit or stop buying more. How could I go short it?

I know it's a bull market now. Since I know it's a bull market, what kind of brain circuit is it to go against the market to prove that you are awesome when you see a coin breaking through all resistance and soaring? Are you the only one awake when everyone else is drunk?

There is still a trace of regret in the first picture, and isn't the second picture pure idiocy?

You still dare to say "I am capable" with a smug face. Is this what you call trading? It's obvious that you are gambling!

Go find a class to attend, don't fucking hurt your family!

#BTC is still the 67k key price that has been mentioned for a month

The last two days of the week, unemployment benefits tonight, core PCE tomorrow night, short-term success or failure depends on this

The 10y yield has been raised to 4.6 again, the risk market outlook is worrying if this life father does not come down

We often say that if you want to get rich, you need the right time, right place, and right people, but the right time and right place are not controlled by people.

Only by mastering the "right people" can we determine our lower limit.

In trading, this lower limit is determined by risk management: the better the control, the longer we can survive in the market, and the more opportunities we have to encounter the right time and right place.

Sometimes I am speechless when I see you guys losing a lot of money

On live broadcasts, you talk about quantitative measurement based on loss, and say risk comes first every day

You can’t stop loss even if you wear out your lips. You always think that if you control the risk, you will make less money, and you always think about getting rich by all-in

You make more money by selling drugs and robbing banks, but your head will fall off faster. What are you doing?

For me, the way to make money in the long run through trading is

Lose small money and make small money, so that you can live long enough, so that when the next wind comes, you are still in the car, and then make a big one

If you don’t make more money by all-in, you will lose more. The next time the wind comes, don’t even think about making money, that thing will blow the grass on your grave rustling

Have you read Reminiscences of a Stock Operator? Livermore is awesome, right? He is a typical example of frequent trading, heavy trading, high leverage trading, and multi-product trading. He often goes from heaven to hell one step at a time. This week, he is driving a sports car in California to enjoy the sun, beaches and beauties, and next week he is poor and almost bankrupt

If you don’t know Livermore, then go and see Liang Xi

Be more careful, this market does not look at who makes more at one time, but who lives longer

If you are fascinated by the points, you can search for pivot points standard in the TV indicator column.
All are points, no need to wait for others to tell you every day

Watch the 15-minute chart for intraday trading
If the price is stable above point P, go long, otherwise go short
R is the profit stop point for long orders, and S is the profit stop point for short orders

Okay, now you can also put out points. If your fans make money, you are awesome, and if your fans lose money, they are stupid

Don't get me wrong, I am not belittling pivot point. On the contrary, I think it is a very useful indicator

But indicators must be used together with other technologies to form an effective trading strategy

Just throwing out a bunch of points for others to guess, making yourself mysterious
Those who know you are trading, and those who don't know think you are doing it

Why can Buffett maintain long-term profitability?

Because the key to long-term profitability is to defend rather than attack

From his net asset value growth curve, we can see that Buffett's wealth increased significantly after he was 52 years old, in 1982, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average had just broken through a wide range of fluctuations for nearly 18 years and started a violent bull market.

During these 18 years of fluctuations, many famous offensive traders at the time, such as Jerome Cardaniel and Andre Meyer, suffered varying degrees of losses or even went bankrupt. The main reason for their failure was almost all due to the aggressive trading style of high leverage + high frequency.

In addition, the trading god Livermore (the protagonist of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator) and Meriwether, the founder of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), who are well-known to traders, and other extremely excellent traders, eventually went bankrupt for the same reason.

On the other hand, Buffett's trading ideas have always been very conservative, and he strictly abides by his trading discipline in an almost abnormal way. That's why he was able to survive this 18-year-long shock and wait until the clouds cleared and the moon appeared.

He clearly knows that individuals cannot resist trends. All traders can do is to ensure that they do not lose money or lose less money, and live long enough in the market. The rest is to wait for the wind to come.

So friends, don't try to eat every market, be defensive instead of offensive.

I recommend watching Buffett's speech at the University of Florida more than 20 years ago, which lasted an hour and a half and was very appetizing.
https://youtu.be/2MHIcabnjrA?si=qiJw38lb7iv_rJHC

What the elder brother said is very right, but many people, especially novices, cannot enter the market after selling out, which can be extended to the second point - the cost of silence is not considered a cost

Let's do a small question to see if you have trading thinking:

Xiao Shuai spent 110 to buy a chicken and sold it at 120 in the market. After selling it, he felt that the price of the chicken could still rise, so he spent 130 to buy the chicken back and finally sold it at 150. How much money did Xiao Shuai make in total?

A reminder, this involves two psychological concepts mentioned before - "ownership effect" and "loss aversion".

The answer is 30. The first transaction earns 10 yuan, and the second transaction earns 20 yuan. There is no need to offset the difference between the second purchase of chicken and the first sale of chicken, because that is not a loss.

Back to trading, people who make mistakes are basically people who are not likely to enter the market for the second time in trading, because they once owned the currency and activated their ownership effect, and the sale caused them to have loss aversion, thinking that the money that should have been theirs was gone, as if they had lost money, so they would not touch this currency again in the short term.

But transactions are done one by one. Your last transaction has nothing to do with this one. Each transaction is a new beginning. According to this theory, the more eager people are to make a profit, the less likely they are to make a profit, because they try to change the results of every past transaction with this transaction. The trading psychology will be distorted into greed and penny-pinching, and they will never be able to turn things around.

Refuse to be a gambler. The first thing to change is not to stop profit and stop loss.

The common reason is one sentence

"What if it takes off?"

1. The money from the stop profit is your money, you will always make money if you sell it.

2. No stop loss = infinite risk, you can win 10,000 times, but you only need to lose once to return to zero.

3. Holding a position also depends on fate.

The Air Force may win in the short term, but if it continues, you will miss out on the entire bull market.

Impossible Triangle of Long-term Profitable Trading

1. High Win Rate (High WR)
Usually requires the ability to accurately follow market fluctuations, which may result in smaller profits each time or lower trading frequency

2. High Profit/Loss Ratio (High R/R)
Average profit is much higher than average loss, and profits are greater than losses, requiring more precise and complete entry and exit strategies, which may result in lower win rates or lower trading frequency

3. High Frequency (HFT or Scalping)
High-frequency trading can quickly accumulate profits in the short term, but because it is difficult to maintain high-precision trading for a long time, it will also increase risk exposure and operational difficulty

For long-term profits, you can only choose two of the above three

Technology is just a tool. Everyone can learn it and use it. But whether you can use it well or not depends entirely on you.

Tops and bottoms are not calculated, but determined by buying and selling

Bull and bear are codes given to a certain market when looking back

Trading is like crossing a river by feeling the stones
Except for your stop loss, nothing is certain

What are you in a hurry for? Why are you so FOMO?

What, the price of Bitcoin will be x2 when it is halved?

【Avoid two common trading mentalities and stabilize your trading mentality】

Last year, I persuaded my childhood friend to invest in a few coins. He was an outsider and had no interest in stock management

At the beginning of this year, he returned nearly four times his investment. He called me dad every day and asked me about my well-being

Now he only earns more than double, and he is frowning every day

He said he regretted why he didn't sell it at the high point and buy it back now

I said this is a common problem for newcomers - dreaming

He likes to review history to cheer himself up, and wants to use the established facts of the present to guide the unknown market in the past. His catchphrase is "If I had known, I would..."

At the same time, have you found that he has other psychological states?

Yes, it is the "endowment effect" and "loss aversion"

When I was a child, my father once told me before my exam: "I have bought you a game console, but if you don't do well in the exam, I will return it."

Later, I found that this effect is much better than telling me: "If you do well in the exam, I will buy you a game console."

The reason is that the first half of my father's sentence made me feel that I already have a game console, activating the ownership effect, while the second half of the sentence directly made me feel loss aversion. The pain of losing something is far greater than the joy of gaining something, so my performance in exam preparation will be better than other times.

Corresponding to the situation of my childhood friend, he is still in a state of floating profit, but why is he frowning? It is because he has a sense of belonging to the four-fold floating profit in the past, and believes that it is the money that has entered his pocket. Now there is only one-fold left, so he naturally has loss aversion, so he is obviously making money but is very painful.

Three points to summarize

1. Don’t dream, we can’t predict the future, never regret a trade
2. Your money is yours only after the position is closed
3. Try to shift your U-based thinking to a currency-based thinking