Another chart that is time to pay attention is the US Dollar Index DXY. The last time it was dismantled was on April 18th.

The reason is that on the daily timeframe, an “Expensive” signal appeared on the chart from the trend reversal indicator, built on the basis of Thomas DeMark’s candlestick technique.


On the daily TF for the Index, it does not always work (it didn’t work last time either), but if you look at the weekly TF, in 2022-2024 there is a high rate of work, 6 out of 7. Including a timely signal for canceling the uptrend.

On April 18, we wrote that even if the PG&P on the chart is blurred (which happened after the unsuccessful start of testing in April), the upward trend in#DXYis still valid for us as long as the index is above the global upward trend that has been going on since May 2021 ( indicated by a dotted line). Or at least until we see the “Expensive” signal on the weekly timeframe.

There is still no “Expensive” signal this week, but this is just remarkable - the DXY candlestick structures on the weekly TF from February 2024 turn out to be “ragged”, there is no clear and confident trend. Therefore, there is no development of the PG&P target in the area of ​​109.305.

During April, DXY failed to break through the nearest volume level of 106.376. After several attempts. And even if we assume that in May-June a “Double Bottom” formed on the chart and began to work out, its target still does not break through the level of 106.37 (we can test it again in the coming days). This is a good sign for the bulls. Chance for a reversal.

The current weekly candle for DXY is red. But for now, the emerging upward structure this week remains. To break it, Index needs:

- break through upward trend support from December 2023,

- go below the volume level 104.748,

- break through the EMA 50 of the weekly TF (currently 104.748),

- break through the global upward trend that has been going on since May 2021 (indicated by a dotted line).

The last two points are key for risky asset markets, and until the first two are broken, it’s too early to talk about them. 

To summarize, there are the first signs of a#DXYdownward reversal. But we need to see how the coming days close, and this week is optimal. We may get another break to the volume level of 106.37 before the expected reversal.

Let us remind you that#DXYand risk asset markets have a tight inverse correlation. Exceptions with#BTChave happened. For example, in the fall of 2022, the Index was actively falling, but BTC had no time to grow - the market collapsed on the#FTXscam. And the growth of#DXYsince the beginning of 2024 is just the opposite example. The growth of the index during this period did not prevent the active growth of #BTC. The youth of#BTCas an asset is reflected in its level of liquidity and manipulability. Question - “What can BTC show on a falling DXY, if on a rising one it showed an increase of about +73%, and there has not been a bullrun yet?”

As for the global picture for DXY - we are not changing our forecasts - there is a high probability that there was another global high in September 2022. Because the history of the Index is the history of falling highs and lows since 1985. The geopolitical picture and the macroeconomic picture in the world, as well as the monetary policy of the United States, so far favor a continuation of the trend.