Summary of current market conditions:
1. There is still no increase in hot funds in the market, and most of the funds are attracted to US stocks.
2. There is no new hype concept in cryptocurrency. The eye-catching projects such as smart contracts and DeFi in the last bull market did not appear in this round (only the original Bitcoin ecosystem made me shine).
3. Interest rate cuts are still a long way off. Interest rate cuts are the most direct way to increase market liquidity, and this money will need to wait until the second half of the year.
4. We are still optimistic about the market in the second half of this year and even next year. In the long run, the rise and fall of cryptocurrencies are driven by macroeconomic factors. The macroeconomic situation in the second half of this year and next year will be healthier.
5. Don’t add leverage. Before the market starts, it is often the darkest and most torturous time.
After Bitcoin fell below 66,000, it has been confirmed that it will usher in a long adjustment. This adjustment cycle may be around 1 month. The market is currently in the adjustment stage and there are no obvious support signals. We can only leave it to time.
When Bitcoin is verifying downward, some high-quality altcoins are also opportunities. Of course, I prefer everyone to build positions on the right side. After the market is obviously stable, it will be a good opportunity to look for high-quality altcoins.
What stage is BTC in now?
From October last year to January 11 when BTCETF was approved, the entire rise was driven by ETF expectations.
After that, the good news was realized and a pullback occurred; then until March, large-scale net inflows of funds from ETFs pushed BTC to a new high.
After March, the positive effects of ETFs basically came to an end, and the market began to focus on interest rate cuts. The CPI data for March came out, which hit the market's confidence and began to adjust back to 57,000.
Entering June, the market's previous expectation of a rate cut in July failed to materialize, so the entire cryptocurrency market was hit again.
As the ancients said, the first push is strong, the second will weaken, and the third will be exhausted!
After the expectation of interest rate cuts was hit repeatedly, the market finally lost confidence. However, due to the support of ETF, BTC did not fall too much, but the previously popular altcoins and MEME coins plummeted!
I personally think that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in September, but before that!
There is only one last interest rate meeting at the end of July.
According to past practice, the market usually reverses before the policy, so I guess the market will bottom out at the end of June or the beginning of July, and then begin to fluctuate upward, waiting for the emergence of various data to further confirm the interest rate cut, and finally announce the start of the interest rate cut.
Firmly believe that there will be a bull market after the interest rate cut, so every decline is a good opportunity to increase your position!
Control the rhythm well. In this cycle, there may no longer be a black swan like the one on March 18, 2020. It is more likely that events will be used to exchange space, just like in the second and third quarters of 2023.
Therefore, we must strengthen our confidence, control the rhythm, and believe that there will be light at the end of the tunnel!
Wall Street News directly said that altcoins are a garbage dump, and this bull market is led by Wall Street institutions. Although altcoins have fallen so much, the total market value of altcoins is still at a historical high.
In the last bull market, new coins launched generally had a market value of tens of millions, while in this bull market, new coins launched generally have a market value of hundreds of millions, and are constantly unlocked. So far, there has been no new ecological hotspot in Ethereum. In the last round, it was NFT, what is this round?
In the past, retail investors speculated in cryptocurrencies randomly, but this round of institutional investors will not speculate blindly. Coins in the AI sector? Are there any practical applications? In the past, retail investors did not consider or turned a blind eye to the issues, but institutions will consider them.
In the long run, the bear market of altcoins is actually a good thing for altcoins, as it can allow real projects to stand out. If all the projects are hyping up MEME and riding on the trend, altcoins will become a real garbage dump. In this case, there will be no general rise in altcoins. After this round of sharp drop, institutions will only pull in coins with real potential and look for treasures in the garbage dump.
Whether it is balance sheet reduction or the exit of small miners, it can only affect the Bitcoin market in the short term. With the support of huge negative factors such as Bitcoin halving, interest rate cuts, Ethereum + Bitcoin ETF, and the US election, this bull market is a foregone conclusion.
Because of the short-term correction, it is believed that it is just a move by the market makers to take advantage of the opportunity to clean up the market.
Before every big rise, the market will experience a period of decline and correction, allowing the leeks to get off and the market makers to get on, and then the big market will arrive as expected.
The market has now fallen to around 65,000. If it continues to fall to around 64,000, you can slowly increase your positions!
The possibility of a rebound at this position is relatively high.
