Bitcoin must recover at least 63,000 on a weekly basis, otherwise it will continue to adjust. No matter how it fluctuates in the short term, just remember the cycle. It will stabilize in the third quarter and take off in the fourth quarter. This is the judgment and prediction of the macro trend in the second half of this year.
Currently, it cannot be said that the market has stabilized at either the 2-hour or 4-hour levels. It will take a few more days of continuous adjustments to see whether the area around 58,000 is a strong support.
Today and tomorrow are critical! Bitcoin price wants to maintain 60,000? You need to pay attention to these two data:
The two data that the market is most concerned about this week are the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) and U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data that will be released today and tomorrow.
1. U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2024 will be released on Thursday (June 27), which is tonight at 20:30 Taiwan time. The forecast is 1.3%, and the previous value was 3.4%. If the indicator is higher than expected, it will be considered as a strong/rising dollar, otherwise it will be considered as a weak/falling dollar.
The U.S. GDP growth has declined for two consecutive quarters. The initial values for the previous two times were 1.6% and 1.3% respectively. The result of the Federal Reserve's continuous interest rate hikes to fight inflation is that the U.S. economy is weak in a high-interest rate environment. If GDP continues to decline, it is likely to increase the Federal Reserve's expectations for rate cuts, driving up risk assets such as Bitcoin.
2. US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data for May will be released at 8:30 p.m. Taiwan time on Friday (June 28), with a forecast of 2.6% and a previous reading of 2.8%.
From the beginning of this year to date, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and his officials have stated that high interest rates will have to be maintained for some time because inflation has not yet reached the target. PCE, as the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve pays the most attention to, has remained at 2.8% for three consecutive months. The Federal Reserve believes that this is a signal that inflation has not yet cooled down. Therefore, if personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in May decreases from the previous value, it is expected to increase expectations for interest rate cuts and drive up risky assets such as Bitcoin.
The market is always against human nature. It has already experienced a long correction before the quarterly delivery, so the possibility of another big drop before the quarterly delivery is very small.
Because the market is already in fear. When retail investors are afraid and think that there will be a big drop, and they are waiting for the big drop to pick up low-priced chips, do you think the main players will let them succeed?
We only judge based on the news and sentiment that conforms to market logic, and we don't see a big drop.
From a technical point of view, although Bitcoin did not successfully break a new high and then ushered in a wave of correction, the correction did not fall below the range of oscillation. It is still in the range of oscillation and did not break a new low.
Ethereum looks even better. After breaking through the bottom oscillation range with large volume, it ushered in this round of correction. After falling to the vicinity of the previous oscillation range, it did not fall below it.
In addition, Ethereum's daily line is in a large negative line with a lower shadow and large volume, and it appears at an important support level, indicating that the support below is very strong.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has shown signs of stopping the decline, and Ethereum has once again confirmed that it has stopped falling.
Planning for the next rebound phase:
Don't doubt that we are still in the bull market. The bull market will last at least until the first quarter of next year, or even longer. In the next period of time: every time#ETHfalls, the cost-effectiveness will be higher than#BTCuntil the Ethereum ETF is passed.
Will there be an explosion period for the altcoin? It will definitely happen. This is determined by the law and is not subject to anyone's will! But at the same time, can what you buy explode? A new cycle, a new altcoin, this is a key question. In addition, this is a test of one's concentration and patience. Most people can't stand it! If you feel that you can't stand it, you might as well sell it in advance!
When the Fed starts buying assets, it means a huge inflow of liquidity, which will also affect cryptocurrencies. At present, the Fed is just selling assets, but the reversal is coming. This bull market has no rules, and the market is changing rapidly. Everyone must find a way to keep the same in the face of changes, otherwise the heart will be very tired!
Retail investors will not lose interest in cryptocurrencies, and retail investors will not lose interest in money-making opportunities.
The copycat outbreak period in the bull market is very short. After it is over, most projects will suffer losses in the bear market due to lack of funds and attractions. Most projects will slowly die out after this round of bull market, and only very few projects will survive. Therefore, don’t talk too much and don’t hold on to the mentality of holding on forever. This is the advice of an old investor!
