Today is Monday, June 17, 2024, and we will discuss the macroeconomic events of the week as well as the unlocking of some altcoins.
Before discussing Bitcoin, I want to talk about the situation in the altcoin market. I saw an interesting tweet about the changes in the total market value of altcoins.
About 546 days after Bitcoin halving, the total market value of altcoins will reach a historical high. This phenomenon has occurred several times in history, such as from the end of 2017 to the beginning of 2018, and in November 2021. This round of Bitcoin halving was completed on April 20. According to this cyclical law, we expect that 546 days after Bitcoin halving, that is, around October 18, 2025, the altcoin market may reach a new high.
This also means that the Bitcoin bull market may end in October next year. Although some people believe that the bull market will end in the first half of next year, according to historical trends and indicators, it is more likely to end in October next year. Although the current altcoin market has plummeted, and some altcoins have even fallen back to the bear market level before October last year, thinking about it the other way around, isn’t this a good opportunity to accumulate?
Although I am not interested in altcoins, I think it is a wise choice to follow the trend. At present, retail investors do not seem to be very interested in altcoins, partly because the altcoin market has been falling since mid-March, which has frustrated many altcoin investors. However, once a few months have passed, especially when the Bitcoin price breaks through $73,000, these investors are likely to re-enter the market, and more new cryptocurrency investors will also pour in. So, when will the boom season for altcoins come?
According to the flow of funds, Ethereum must perform well in the next stage, or the price of Bitcoin must rise to the psychological price in many people's minds, which may be $89,000 or $100,000. Why do you say that? Because once Bitcoin rises above $100,000, some people may begin to doubt its room for further growth and consider investing their funds in the altcoin market, which has the opportunity to get a 5 to 10 times return rate. This investment psychology is reasonable and in line with the cyclical characteristics of the cryptocurrency market.
In addition, the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) previously stated that the spot ETF may be finally approved in the summer. However, recently, Bloomberg's ETF analyst Eric seems to have changed his view, and he believes that the SEC may see the final approval of the ETF before July 2. This is just in time for the July 4th U.S. Independence Day holiday. If what he said is true, then within two weeks, the spot Ethereum ETF may be fully approved.
October 2025 may witness a historic breakthrough in the total market value of altcoins, especially in the context of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, and this process may be more colorful. Bitcoin has already broken through the highest point of the previous bull market before the halving, which is completely different from previous cycles. The launch of the spot Ethereum ETF may have an impact on the altcoin market, but whether it will become hot in advance is still undecided. We are facing a cycle that is different from the past, and spot ETFs are an important variable. In any case, based on the cyclical trend of Bitcoin and the movement trajectory of the total market value of altcoins, 500 to 550 days after the halving may mark the end of the cryptocurrency bull market.
I have made the necessary note of altcoin unlocks this week. Token unlocks usually mean more supply is entering the market, which can be negative for token prices.
In terms of macroeconomics this week, there seems to be no particularly important data released in the United States. The only thing that needs attention may be the retail sales data, also known as the "horror data", which is called because of its uncertainty and importance in affecting the market. Retail sales data can reflect consumers' consumption demand and ability, and about 70% of the US GDP is driven by consumption, so it plays an important role in judging the current state of the US economy. Last week, the Federal Reserve released a new dot plot, adjusting from the previously expected three interest rate cuts to only one. This negative factor caused further pressure on the market, especially the spot Bitcoin ETF market. It is expected that the outflow trend this week will continue, and the price of Bitcoin will also be under downward pressure. However, from a longer-term perspective, the potential of the spot ETF market is very huge, and it is still in its infancy, and more demand is yet to be released.
Regarding the price trend of Bitcoin, the support level of $65,000 has been tested once before. What needs to be watched this week is whether Bitcoin will continue to fall and break through the support level of $65,000. At present, the key support level of $66,250 is still playing a certain role. If Bitcoin falls below $65,000, it will almost be close to the average price line of short-term holders, which is $63,500. For the upward direction of Bitcoin, the previous active buying range has now become a resistance level. To restore bullish confidence, Bitcoin needs to break through the MA200 moving average. Due to the deterioration of the macroeconomic environment compared to May, Bitcoin now lacks a clear sense of direction and is expected to continue to fluctuate in a boring range for about two months. However, after these months, the price may usher in the next qualitative leap. I hope everyone can stick to the end.
If we focus on the relationship between the unrealized profit rate of retail investors and the price of Bitcoin, we can find that in previous cycles, the profit level is always positively correlated with the price of Bitcoin. Whenever Bitcoin reaches the peak of the cycle, the profit rate level also enters the overheated area.
We are only halfway through this journey. This indicator is similar to the MVRV score indicator, suggesting that Bitcoin still has room to double in price. In fact, the group that holds Bitcoin for 3-6 months sold their Bitcoin before and after the spot ETF was approved. However, at this stage, Bitcoin prices fluctuate at a high level, and this group did not choose to sell, but actively accumulated, which can be interpreted as a strong support signal. In addition, the number of Bitcoin whales is still rising.
Referring to the changing trend of historical cycles, after the Bitcoin halving is completed, especially when the number of whales begins to decline, the Bitcoin price will rise significantly. This is because there is a large amount of buying demand in the market, and long-term holders will begin to gradually sell, pushing the Bitcoin price to a higher level. This also means that we may see the second wave of Bitcoin distribution process, that is, long-term holders gradually sell, and short-term holders enter the market in large numbers to take over. Eventually, at some point in 2025, the Bitcoin bull market will also end.
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