Why there is a copycat market in every bull market!
1. The Web3 market is becoming more and more like the US stock market. Historically, the US stock market has not always been led by the 7 golden flowers. From the comparison between the S&P 500 Index and the Russell 2000 Index, and the Nasdaq 100 Index and the Russell 2000 Index, we can find that the small and medium-cap stocks (altcoins) are outperforming the blue chip market in most of the market, and in the second half of the market, the trend will be stronger and sharper, far surpassing the blue chips.
2. Let's look at the third picture, which shows the market share of BTC over the years. There have been two times when the market share of BTC exceeded 70%. The first time was on August 19, 2019 (a small peak in the rebound in 2019). The second time was in December 2020 (the scene in 2020 when Bitcoin took the lead in charging to 40,000). Then the market share of BTC turned down, providing nutrients for more cottages. The magnificent cottage market started. The root of all this is that the peak of BTC's market share is unsustainable, mainly because it is difficult for BTC to attract off-site funds to enter the market, resulting in the depletion of funds in the market. Only the money-making effect can stimulate fresh blood outside the market and push up the market again. The cottages that spend little money to do big things often play the role of aerial refueling engines in the middle of the market.
3. The market value is huge and difficult to push up. The current total market value of cryptocurrencies is 2.55 trillion US dollars, and the market value of BTC is 1.31 trillion US dollars. We expect this value to double to 5 trillion in the mid-term of the bull market, corresponding to a BTC market value of 2.6 trillion US dollars. We reasonably predict that the market value of BTC in this bull market will be between 3.55 trillion and 4.48 trillion. The corresponding BTC price is between 178,000 US dollars and 222,400 US dollars. (Detailed analysis below)
With such a huge market value, it is difficult to provide momentum again after the BTC market value reaches 2.6 trillion in the medium term by relying on ETFs or market forces. The willingness of real retail investors to buy BTC is extremely low. They would rather choose PVP MEME coins than buy BTC worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. In this case, the role of copycats is born.
First, it provides a good return on investment compared to the big cake, bringing market popularity and funds.
Second, for institutions, they contribute to the Web3 industry and also need corresponding returns. Both ignition and harvesting require efforts. As the saying goes, you can't catch a wolf without sacrificing your son. Only by better profit recovery can they make better contributions to the next round of industry development.
Third, historical experience tells us that the bull market will end in chaos. Copycats create emotions to cover up the escape of blue chips. This is an unchanging script.
At this moment, we have seen many altcoins with historically low volumes. As the saying goes, low volumes mean low prices. The reluctance to sell has reached its peak, so there is no need to panic. As shown in Figure 4, the example discussed with the foreign community last night, the altcoins are already ready to move, and there is a high probability that they are on the eve of an explosion.#内容挖矿
