June 14 Crypto Option Volatility Research Report

U.S. stocks are strong, crypto spot market is weak, how to do options?

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I. Core Views

1- Several major data dimensions, such as U.S. stock macro, ETF net inflow, funding rate, and option implied volatility, do not see signs of a market crash, and the overall market is not bearish;

2- BTC's implied volatility has dropped below the 25th percentile, and players familiar with Dvol can go long moderately

3- Several cottage targets that have been deeply traded, Ton, are the strongest, and IV continues to be high, and the short vega view remains unchanged; Sol spot has been weak for a while, and it is an opportunity to stock up, and long-term positions do not make covered calls; short-term volatility positions can ignore Skew; Kas is affected by the market, 32W long calls continue to lose Theta, and the most out-of-value delta is 17, continue to hold patiently.

2. Options Block Trading

BTC Block yesterday started to do the collar strategy at the end of the year, with a position of 1,000 coins, which is opposite to the direction of yesterday's block; another block bet 675 coins to break the new high position at the end of July

sell BTC-27DEC24-100000-C + buy BTC-27DEC24-60000-P

buy BTC-26JUL24-74000-C

ETH Block mainly does the covered call strategy next Friday, does not expect a big rise, short vol

sell ETH-21JUN24-3800-C

sell ETH-21JUN24-3550-C

sell ETH-21JUN24-3650-C

sol afternoon has obvious guiding significance

3. Macro Market

In terms of macro, the downward trend of US CPI is better than expected, but the Fed's expectations are somewhat hawkish. Judging from the final trend of the US dollar index, although the interest rate dot plot shows only one interest rate cut this year, the market is clearly more inclined to the dovish direction brought about by the decline in CPI, and believes that the Fed's guidance is just a routine reverse expectation management.

I don't dig many targets in US stocks, but they are all positions that can be taken, and the strategies are all medium- and long-term strategies. If you have any questions, feel free to ask questions on the planet, and I will answer them.