Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in November, based on swaps data, but comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell suggest confidence has not grown that inflation will slow enough to justify a rate cut, meaning a rate cut could take longer.

Powell emphasized at the interest rate press conference that although recent inflation data have slowed down, the Fed needs to see more positive data to increase confidence in the fight against inflation. Although the U.S. economy has made significant gains in employment and inflation so far this year, inflation remains too high, economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, and the pace of job growth, while strong, has slowed from the first quarter. Powell pointed out that the big factor changing the path of interest rates is inflation. At present, the inflation process has stagnated in the first quarter, which means that the timing of interest rate cuts will be delayed. The Fed must rely on data to guide policy decisions, and while the latest inflation report was better than expected, it was not enough to support an immediate rate cut.

The Fed's dot plot also provides an outlook on the future path of interest rates. The federal funds rate is expected to be 5.1% at the end of 2024, 4.1% at the end of 2025, 3.1% at the end of 2026, and 2.8% in the long term. These data show that although the market expects a rate cut in the short term, the possibility of the Fed keeping higher interest rates for a longer period of time remains. Powell also mentioned that the recent strong employment data may be slightly "exaggerated", suggesting that the Fed may be revising the benchmark data. This complex series of factors suggests that although the market has strong expectations for a rate cut in November, the Fed's actual policy path may be more cautious.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May showed a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, lower than the market expectation of 3.4% and lower than the previous value of 3.4%. On a month-on-month basis, the CPI was flat, which was also lower than the estimated 0.1% and the previous value of 0.3%. These data show that the inflationary pressure in the United States has eased.

First, from the year-on-year data, the 3.3% increase still reflects the rise in price levels, but it is lower than market expectations and the previous value. This shows that in some key areas, the pressure of price increases has eased. Further analysis shows that this is due to the decline in energy prices and the easing of certain supply chain bottlenecks.

The month-on-month data was flat, meaning that overall price levels did not change significantly over the course of a month. The lower-than-expected reading suggests that inflationary momentum has weakened in the short term. Specific reasons include the impact of some seasonal factors and changes in consumer demand. The market expected a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, but the actual growth was 3.3%, indicating that the market overestimated inflationary pressures. Lower-than-expected inflation data usually has a positive impact on financial markets and eases investor concerns about further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Recently, the Federal Reserve has stated that it will adjust monetary policy based on data, and lower-than-expected inflation data will make it more cautious.

The Biden campaign is in talks with Coinbase Commerce to accept cryptocurrency donations, a move that reveals several aspects worth exploring in depth. First, the move signals the growing importance of cryptocurrency in political fundraising. Coinbase Commerce, a platform that allows merchants to accept payments in a variety of cryptocurrencies, is already supporting digital currency donations from the Trump campaign, suggesting that the platform has broad application prospects in the field of political fundraising.

For the Biden team, accepting cryptocurrency donations is not only a move to follow the trend of technological development, but also to attract supporters of the cryptocurrency community. It is reported that the team hopes to obtain financial sponsorship from cryptocurrency supporters. This strategy is undoubtedly a keen response to the current market environment: on the one hand, the total market value of the global cryptocurrency market has approached 1.2 trillion US dollars at the end of 2023, showing huge liquidity; on the other hand, more and more high-net-worth individuals and institutional investors are turning their attention to the cryptocurrency field, which also provides new possibilities for political fundraising.

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 1,478 coins yesterday (June 10), worth $101 million.

BTC: A shooting star line was closed yesterday. Although the US spot Bitcoin ETF showed a net inflow yesterday, the long upper shadow line means that the selling pressure above it is still a bit large. The Fed's dot plot predicts that there will be only one interest rate cut in 2024, which may occur in November. According to the current macro market, Bitcoin still needs time to adjust. In the short term, it is still expected to rebound upward again, but after the rebound, it is likely to come down and step back to the May or October moving average position for adjustment and confirmation.

ETH: Linked to Bitcoin trend.

TON: It closed with a medium-sized positive line yesterday, with a certain amount of volume. It is now above the 5-day moving average. It may rise further and set a new high in the short term.

PYTH: It closed with a spinning hammer line yesterday. There has been obvious accumulation of funds recently, with increasing volume and flat price. It has been suppressed. We will continue to wait patiently for a counterattack in the future.

TRX: It closed with a cross line yesterday and is now at the 30-day moving average. With the intervention of funds, it may rise in the short term.

Today's hot topics: AI; DEPIN.

The Fear Index is currently at 70 (Greed) #美国5月CPI超预期回落 #美联储何时降息？ #美联储连续第七次维持基准利率不变