US CPI and interest rate decision came on the same day, US stocks and bonds rose together to welcome "Super Wednesday".
Cake fell alone, is it really shriveled?
One night determines life and death, do you want to stay up late tonight?
1. Macro fundamentals:
1. The most critical moment of the year is coming: US CPI release day "encounters" Federal Reserve interest rate day.
At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the US Department of Labor will release May CPI data;
At 2:00 am Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision; at 2:30, Chairman Powell will host a press conference.
2. Wall Street is optimistic about "Super Wednesday". Yesterday (Tuesday), stocks and bonds rose together, and Wall Street was quite optimistic about the arrival of this "big day" that is of great importance to the global capital market. The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq hit new highs, and the 10-year US Treasury auction hit the highest bid multiple in two years.
3. Investors bet on the overall positive impact of CPI and the Federal Reserve's decision tonight.
The market expects that the year-on-year growth rate of the overall CPI in the United States in May will remain the same, which is neutral; but the month-on-month growth rate will decline, which is positive.
The most critical factor in the interest rate decision is the "dot plot". The market expects that there will be "two interest rate cuts" this year.
2. Tone and suggestions for the currency market
1. The currency market is obviously affected by the macro-economic factors. On the eve of "Super Wednesday", the risk aversion sentiment is obvious. Bitcoin fell by more than 3%, and the amplitude exceeded 5%; the copycat continued to fall.
2. Technically, Bitcoin was supported at the median of 66,000 in the wide consolidation range (73,800~56,500), which is still a high-level consolidation. It has fallen back 8.26% from the recent high point and has not fallen below 10%, which is a normal fluctuation.
3. On-chain data shows that in this round of decline, the BTC stock of the exchange has flowed out in large quantities, once again refreshing the lowest stock value in nearly six years, indicating that the whales are still in the state of accumulating funds, but the willingness to purchase new stocks has also declined relatively. The overall market performance is a game state of the stock market, indicating that the fluctuation is basically caused by short-term traders' profit-taking or risk avoidance.
4. The distribution of chips on the chain shows that more early investors have not participated in the turnover on a large scale regardless of the rise or fall, and the volatility of $BTC is generally on a downward trend. This shows that more investors have no reaction to the current price rise and fall, and basically have a bullish mentality of holding coins, waiting for the arrival of a big cycle and a big market.
5. Suggestion: Don't enter and exit the market blindly, and wait for tonight's CPI data and interest rate resolution before making a trading plan.
