Before the September rate cut, the risk market may face more economic data.
"Recession trade" or "rate cut trade", you don't have much time to choose!
1. Fundamentals
1. On Friday (August 9), the three major U.S. stock indexes closed up collectively, ending the most turbulent week of the year. This week, the three major U.S. stock indexes all recorded a small decline, basically recovering the plunge of "Black Monday". $BTC This week is likely to close positive and form a Pinbar pattern.
2. During this week's plunge, funds showed signs of bottom-fishing. Global stock markets received moderate net buying of funds, long buying exceeded short selling, and the market is "approaching" a tactical opportunity to buy on dips.
Hedge funds entered the market to bottom-fish after the U.S. stock market plummeted, buying technology stocks in large quantities, and the scale of increase was the largest since June.
On-chain data shows that the net position of the total supply of stablecoins in the currency market continued to rise rapidly after the plunge on Monday, indicating that funds also bottomed out.
3. Whether the US economy will enter a recession will be the focus of the market before the September rate cut.
(1) If the following data exacerbates the possibility of a US recession, the Fed will engage in a "recession-type rate cut", which usually takes a long time, with a large rate cut, and is likely to be a continuous rate cut.
From historical data, during the rate cut period, the global risk market will face an overall downturn, and the US bond price will lead by a large margin. Gold will fall first and then rise, with an average increase of 5% six months after the rate cut. BTC may follow the trend of gold and fall first and then rise.
(2) If the following economic data alleviates or even eliminates the possibility of a recession, the Fed will conduct a "non-recession-type rate cut", which usually takes a short time, with a relatively limited rate cut, and is likely to occur at intervals.
From historical data, during the rate cut period, the risk market will record a strong rebound, especially six months after the rate cut, the Nasdaq rose by as much as 8%. BTC will undoubtedly also record a large return, and the recent correction provides an excellent opportunity to intervene.
Our fixed investment bottom-fishing plan was successfully implemented. We entered the market from 55,400, bought more as the price fell, and picked up low-priced chips! "Hesitation will lead to failure, and decisiveness will give it away for free"!
