The results of each of the three meetings of the US Federal Reserve in 2024 led to an increase in the price of BTC by 16-25%. Trader and cryptanalyst Ali Martinez (ali_charts, 63.8 thousand subscribers in X) drew attention to this on the eve of today’s meeting of the Federal Reserve System:
- after the meeting on January 31, 2024 - growth by +25.13%,
- after the meeting on March 20, 2024 - growth by +18.09%,
- after the meeting on May 1, 2024 - an increase of +15.95%.
It is difficult to say whether history will repeat itself a fourth time. But in anticipation of each meeting, the price of BTC decreased. And it has decreased even now.
There are discussions online about the possibility that before the US presidential elections, Fed officials will decide to lower the rate altogether. Although such an expectation is clearly not within the framework of the consensus forecast (according to #CMEGroup, there is a 99.4% chance that there will be another pause).
There is a chance that this will happen, albeit small. But in general, the stronger such expectations of a rate cut are before today's Fed decision, the greater the risks that the market will show another downward impulse in the event of another pause.
