Grandpa's check-in day 82
The cryptocurrency market fell a little today, with the big pie falling from 16,500 to nearly 16,000 points, while the mainstream and some copycats that had risen in the past few days quickly followed suit. The decline has stabilized at present. At present, this wave of decline may be related to capital flight. Some things that happened in the past two days should have been heard more or less. Therefore, in my opinion, it is not the decline of the market itself, but the risk aversion demand of some funds. The truly lethal decline is often when bullish sentiment is high, or it is a dull knife that cuts meat. At present, the market is bearish. I don’t think it will continue to fall sharply. Moreover, the current price is also near the first position opening price. As long as the position is properly controlled, there will be no problem.
Recently, some data from the US market has been released. Regarding the current interest rate market, there is not much disagreement that the Fed will raise interest rates all the way to a peak of 5%. The rhythm will probably be a 50% increase in December and a few 25% increases in the first half of next year. Historically, when the Fed's interest rate level reaches the terminal value, the first rate cut in the next easing cycle usually occurs a few months later. Therefore, according to this rhythm, the first rate cut will occur in the second half of the year. If this version is true, there will be more than half a year to open a position, but this is within the prediction range.
There is no absolute bottom or rebound time in the market. It may be in the first half of next year, or in the second half of the year or later. The cryptocurrency market has a 4-year cycle, but the so-called bull and bear market is not a single point. Generally speaking, a bull market will last for 3-6 months, and the last bull market lasted for about a year. Therefore, the next round of the start time will definitely not take 4 years. It is likely to start recovering next year. Moreover, the market will not go down unilaterally and hit the bottom directly. This is also one of the theoretical foundations for building positions now. Some of the positions built before should continue to be held, and there may be surprises in the recent market.
The small circle that I started to build in the past two days already has 100 people, of course some of them are previous users, thank you very much. When the market is so depressed, there are still so many supporters, and my small team will also output more high-quality content. Later, a question section will be opened for members of the small circle, and some targeted questions will be published publicly. This pledge model is also a relatively optimistic performance of the long-term currency circle. If you dare not build a position in a bear market, it only means that I need to continue to recharge your faith. Pessimists are often right, and optimists are often successful. Let's encourage each other.