When will the copycat bull market arrive? Will there be more?

How much of an increase is considered a bull market? Everyone has their own understanding. Many people think that a bull market can only be called a bull market if the big market rises several times and the copycats rise dozens or hundreds of times. Then let’s take history as a lesson and look at the two largest markets, US stocks and A-shares, which are bullish trends. Most of the time, it rises + falls sharply. The 1980s was also a period of great inflation in the United States. In 1980, the CPI was as high as 14%.

Under Volcker's crazy interest rate hikes, it was not until 1985 that it gradually returned to the 2-3% range. The Nasdaq (more in line with the currency circle's reference) rose 40 times from the low in 1985 to the high point of the dot-com bubble in 2000. 40 times in 2015; after the 2008 financial crisis, another wave of bulls started. From 2009 to 24, it was 15 years again, this time less than 16 times, and 15 times in 2015.

Looking at A-shares as well, there was a bull market in the early days when the market was immature and it was 11 times. Later it was changed to T+1 and the price limit was 6 times. There is no obvious index bull market.

The above are all statements of objective facts. The market is like a combination of US stocks + A-shares. It has obvious bull and bear cycles (technically there is a halving), and the price is in a bullish trend similar to the Nasdaq. The big pie benchmarks against the index, and the copycat benchmarks against individual stocks. As the volume increases, the increase per unit time must continue to decrease, which is in line with objective laws.

The pie increased from 500 times in the first round, to 130 times in the second round, to 17 times in the third round. This round is currently 4.7 times, and the increase has also decreased significantly. From this, we can deduce that the low point of this round is 15558*17 (don’t be careful about rounding) = 264486 It is based on the fact that the increase in each round does not exceed the top limit area of ​​the previous round. The current turn of the big pie is 6.4 times the bottom of 100,000. There are already many benchmarks for traditional markets, and the ratio to gold is also much higher. Now it has increased 4.7 times, with a maximum volume of 150,000 million, which is the pass line for bull market growth, just like an oversold rebound. , after the initial technical rebound range has the highest certainty, there will be more factors to consider when it rises again, and the process will be more tortuous.

From the perspective of the macro cycle, the bull market in the copycat season may come relatively late, but it will definitely happen. I personally predict that it will start at some point in the third quarter of 2024! #BTC