Major macroeconomic events from June 10 to June 14! Recommended reading index: ★★★
The importance of each information in the Chronicle is marked with ★, and the time in the article is UTC+8.
The macro theme this week is the US employment data on Friday. The result was surprising and the market did not get an effective boost in positive sentiment. Next week's CPI inflation data and dot plot will become another focus of the game in the near future, especially during the silent period of Federal Reserve officials this week. Next week, with the speeches of Federal Reserve officials, market sentiment will be mobilized again, and this week's data will also be interpreted again.
The main themes of the game next week will be the Fed’s dot plot and the U.S. CPI inflation data for May. The 4% unemployment rate this week is enough for the Fed to talk about rate cuts again if it is willing to do so. At the same time, with lower inflation, expectations for rate cuts will be more optimistic.
June 10 (Monday): 1, 07:50 Japan's first quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate revised value, importance ★★
Japan's economic situation in the first quarter, this data can be ignored for the most part, but those who are interested can pay attention to it. Japan is the only economy in the current global interest rate cut environment that is in a cycle of interest rate hikes. At the same time, whether the Asian economy is in chaos or not, the Japanese economy accounts for half, and the Japanese economy is also an unstable factor for the Asia-Pacific economy.
2, 15:00 Swiss Consumer Confidence Index for May, importance ★★
The Consumer Confidence Index is one of the data used to measure inflation. Switzerland is one of the developed countries in the world that has cut interest rates this time, and it is also the one that has been fooled by the United States. It depends on your personal preference to pay attention to this data.
3, 16:30 Eurozone June Sentix Investor Confidence Index Importance ★★
You can pay attention to this index based on your personal interests. After all, the eurozone has just started to cut interest rates. The European investors' confidence index can be used as a side view to observe the future confidence level of euro capital in the eurozone, because the eurozone's interest rate cuts mean a possible outflow of euro capital.
4, 23:00 US New York Fed 1-year inflation forecast for May, importance ★★★
The New York Fed plays a very important role in the U.S. federal savings system. The agency gives an expected value for U.S. inflation in the coming year. If there are significant changes in this data, it will have a certain impact on the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts.
June 12 (Wednesday)
1. 01:00 US 10-year Treasury auction until June 11 - winning interest rate Importance ★★
US 10-year Treasury auction until June 11 - bid multiples
This data has few direct guiding factors for the risk market, but it can be used to judge the current sentiment of the US financial market. Those who are interested can check it out.
The US 10-year Treasury bond is an important sentiment indicator for the risk market. If the 10-year Treasury bond yield is too high, it will affect the sentiment of the risk investment market. Of course, the impact is not direct, but linear.
The winning rate of 10-year Treasury bonds can reflect investors' views on the US economic and inflation conditions in the next 10 years.
The winning multiple of 10-year Treasury bonds reflects the sales of long-term U.S. bonds and also reflects investors' risk preferences and willingness.
2. 04:30 API crude oil inventory in the United States for the week ending June 7 (10,000 barrels), importance★
This data reflects the storage situation of domestic energy in the United States that week. Through this data, we can effectively draw conclusions about the supply and demand situation of domestic energy in the United States. However, API data is not as important as EIA data, so it can be paid proper attention to.
3. 20:30 US CPI data, important index ★★★★
The data includes the unseasonally adjusted CPI annual rate, monthly rate and the seasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate and monthly rate. Seasonally adjusted and unseasonally adjusted are the statistical results of whether seasonal factors are excluded. The annual rate is the same period last year, and the monthly rate is the same period last year.
CPI (Consumer Price Index) data collection is based on the statistics of urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. The current inflation situation in the United States can be interpreted through this data, but this data has more limitations than PCE data, especially the unadjusted data will be affected by seasonal changes, so this data is only used as a reference for the Federal Reserve, and the Federal Reserve pays more attention to the situation reflected by the PCE data. However, this data is the focus of the game next week. Combined with the unemployment rate rising to 4% this week, if it is interpreted by more effective Federal Reserve officials, it will have a greater impact on market sentiment expectations.
4. 22:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending June 7 (10,000 barrels) Importance★★
This data is more important than the API data, as it can directly reflect the supply and demand situation in the U.S. domestic crude oil market. However, since it is data for June, there is no need to pay too much attention to it for the time being.
June 13 (Thursday)
1. 02:00 The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision and a summary of its economic forecasts. Importance ★★★★★
The interest rate decision this month is basically unchanged, with no rate cuts or hikes, so the content of the data is more important, but the results are not. After the meeting, the latest dot plot of the United States will be released, and the market will get a more intuitive understanding of the Fed officials' intentions for economic regulation. Dot plot: also known as the interest rate expectation map, is a view of future interest rates by Fed officials anonymously. Each dot represents the personal expectation of an official. Because of anonymity, it is more real and not affected by external factors. The dot plot is updated quarterly and appears 4 times a year.
2. 02:30 Fed Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference. Importance ★★★★
After the announcement of the interest rate decision, Powell will hold a press conference, and reporters will ask questions. In this press conference, the market can effectively draw conclusions about the Fed’s future economic regulation trends through Powell’s speech or reporters’ questions (of course, there is a greater possibility that Powell may play Tai Chi again). The focus of this press conference is whether Powell will admit that the unemployment rate rising to 4% this week is a necessary condition for a rate cut. At the same time, with the announcement of CPI, what is Powell’s view on current inflation, and when the interest rate will be cut in the end. This press conference is very important, but because of Powell’s possible Tai Chi, its importance is reduced by one★
3. 20:30 Number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending June 8 (10,000 people), importance ★★★
Initial jobless claims in the first week of June reflect the recent job market situation, but since it is June data, it has less impact on risk markets and is therefore less important.
4. U.S. PPI annual rate/monthly rate in May, importance ★★
By paying attention to the price changes of American commodities at different stages, we can make an expectation of the inflation situation in the United States in May. Commodity prices directly represent the market inflation situation.
June 14 (Friday)
1. 11:00 Japan's central bank target interest rate from June 14 to June 14. Upper/lower limit. Importance ★★
The upper and lower limits of Japan's interest rate. After Japan decided to move out of negative interest rates, it formulated an interest rate plan. This value has little impact on the market, but if there is a large change in the data, not only Japan itself, but we are also worried that Japan will ruin itself. So everyone can pay attention to it according to their mood.
2. 20:30 U.S. May import price index monthly rate Importance ★★
The price changes of imported products in the United States in May, once the import price rises, enterprises cannot reasonably absorb the price increase, which may indirectly affect the final market pricing of factory products and lead to inflation. However, this data has little impact on the market in the short term.
3. 22:00 US June one-year inflation rate forecast Importance ★★★★
The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June ★★★
The U.S. inflation expectations for June will be more professional than the New York Fed's one-year inflation expectations for May released on Monday. Because the data is collected from institutions and companies, expectations for future inflation will be more professional, but the possibility of active target orientation cannot be ruled out.
The June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is a survey of 500-600 adults collected by the University of Michigan. The data comes from the public and is random, so the index can better judge consumers' future expectations in the current economic environment. The rise of the index indicates that consumer confidence has increased and expectations for the future economy have improved, but more willingness to consume will also bring more inflationary pressure.
The above is the release time and situation of important economic data next week. The theme of next week is the game of inflation and interest rate cut expectations. You can pay attention to or ignore it according to your preferences. I will interpret these data one by one at that time.
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