BTC/#ETH Market analysis: Bitcoin's key support has arrived, while Ethereum is still hanging in the balance? Can it hold the key support today?

At 9 a.m., Bitcoin started to fall again during the day, which has been going on for two days. It is obvious that the pessimism during the Asian session is serious, and even the Ethereum ETF has been "demystified".

Today is a holiday in the United States, and the U.S. financial market is closed for the day. So is the decline in the morning a release of the pessimism of the whole day? Let's take a look at the market.


BTC：
The current price is in the key support range of 58,000-59,000, as we said yesterday, and the price briefly stabilized near 58,400. This position is the MA200 of the daily line, which is a larger support level. At the same time, this position is also the lower line of the daily Bollinger Band. So far, the Bitcoin price has completed a daily Bollinger Band oscillation trend. So far, it is very critical, whether it will rebound and fluctuate upward, or continue to fall. By paying attention to the situation at this position, we can draw a clear conclusion.

As Bitcoin's 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages fell, the overall downward trend was also obvious. The upper line of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands briefly diverged, but this divergence could not change the overall trend.

Support: 58,400 is the key support of the daily and daily MA200 levels, and 58,000-59,000 is the key support range. If it falls below, the only support level is 56,400 on the weekly chart. However, the support is valid after the test of this support range.

Resistance: The overall key resistance for the rebound is still the midline of the daily Bollinger Band, which has moved to around 62,900. If this position is not broken through and stabilized, the overall downward trend of the daily line cannot be changed. For small-scale rebounds, pay attention to the 1-hour 59,600 and 4-hour 61,600 positions. If the 1-hour breakout is detected, look at the 4-hour resistance. If it fails to break through and stabilize, then the short-term rise is just a technical shock, so don't be too optimistic.

RSI: The 1-hour and 4-hour expenditures will soon fall below 30, which will trigger a short-term oversold rebound, but the daily index is still around 38. Judging from the RSI index at the daily level, the sentiment has not fallen to the bottom and the selling pressure sentiment has not been released.


ETH：
Following the trend of Bitcoin, the 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages also follow the decline, and there is no sign of stopping the decline. There is also a divergence on the 4-hour Bollinger Band upper line, but Ethereum is more pessimistic, because the current Ethereum price has no effective support so far, and the most effective support position below is still the daily MA200 near the 3080 we mentioned yesterday. It is currently in a suspended state, which is more tricky.

Support: Currently we can only see the situation around 3080. There is support below, but it is more pessimistic. As Ethereum’s ETF is about to be approved, we don’t need to be overly pessimistic and can wait and see first.

Resistance: The key daily resistance is 3040. Similar to Bitcoin, if this position is not broken and stabilized for adjustment, the downward trend of the daily line cannot be changed. At the small level, pay attention to the situation at 3265 in 1 hour and 3370 in 4 hours.

RSI: 1-hour and 4-hour have fallen below 30, triggering the sentiment of oversold rebound. Pay attention to the rebound breakthrough in the short term and watch out for false breakthroughs. The daily level expenditure is still around 33 and has not triggered the oversold rebound sentiment.

--------------------------------------------------

Today is a holiday in the United States, and the U.S. stock market will not open tonight, so it is temporarily unable to absorb funds from the crypto market, nor can it bring an encouraging effect to the crypto market, and today's liquidity will be relatively poor. Therefore, the goal of the market today is to hold the current support range.

To be honest, I didn't expect to fall to the key support range so quickly. I think this range is a reasonable range for correction and stabilization. However, at present, due to poor market liquidity and pessimistic sentiment, it has reached the key support position in a few days, so the situation at this position needs to be watched more. In the current market, don't speculate where the bottom is and where the correction ends. Don't be overly pessimistic or overly optimistic. We can only gradually see the market reaction according to the situation of each different support.

In terms of market sentiment, the Ethereum ETF may be postponed to the week of July 15 at the latest. At present, the market has basically "demystified" the upcoming ETF. Although the probability of a rate cut in September has increased in terms of macro sentiment, the market is indeed "short of money". Currently, European and American stock markets are performing well, and the trend of gold is also very rapid. The liquidity of the risk market has been greatly divided, and the crypto market can get "pitifully little". Now there is only one word: "endure"

Without further ado, I will find time to update today's market data when I go to the airport later.

#BTC走勢分析 $BTC $ETH