This post on Saturday was controversial. After discussing with the big guys and fans in the comment section, I adjusted my views.
Previously, I thought that the surge in the volume of altcoin transactions was due to a large number of transactions, and I thought that many people were willing to buy at the bottom, but Mr. Ni @Phyrex_Ni reminded me of a key point. The short-term rise and fall of market prices means that many tokens in derivative transactions were forced to close positions during the period, and these closings contributed a lot of trading volume. This point has been ignored before, and it really needs to be reviewed. It seems that the trading volume still needs to be discussed from a multi-dimensional perspective.
Then, all the big guys and masters in the comment area, if you have good or different opinions, you are welcome to discuss. Gentlemen are different in group. We can have different opinions. We don’t need to force anyone to change their opinions, but active discussions will allow us to look at things in more dimensions, which is good for future results.
Another controversial point is the controversy over stablecoins. Specifically, in my data statistics, the increase or decrease in the market value of USDC. My conclusion from yesterday's data is that the market value of USDC has decreased, not because of outflow from the market, but because of the purchase of tokens. The issue of the market value of stablecoins was raised by @Murphychen888, and we discussed it for a long time. The current points of contention are as follows:
1. Whether a stable increase or decrease in market value directly represents the inflow and outflow of funds!
Previously, I believed that the increase or decrease in the market value of stablecoins determines the inflow and outflow of funds. However, I have found many times that when the market price rises, the total market value of stablecoins remains unchanged, while the market value of USDC decreases, and the inflow of other stablecoins is basically small. Which funds are responsible for the increase at this time? It is impossible that USDC flows out and the price is still rising, so I consulted the information and observed the daily statistics, and finally concluded that the decrease in the market value of stablecoins does not mean that all of them flow out, but sometimes they enter the transaction.
2. After stablecoins are used to buy tokens, especially when the purchase transaction is completed on an exchange, are these stablecoins considered destroyed or still included in the circulating market value?
I checked several aspects of information. After the stablecoin is purchased on the exchange, its liquidity is locked, so this part of the stablecoin can no longer be counted as circulating stablecoin, and the circulation value of the stablecoin is reduced. However, @Murphychen888 teacher thinks it is not appropriate, so I have doubts here, and I hope that if there are experts who understand the situation, they can give guidance.
3. In terms of data collection, I use a website to collect data, which is also the website used by Bloomberg to collect data. @Murphychen888 prefers to collect data on the chain, especially for stablecoins. There is a gap between the on-chain data and the website, but the website I use is also very wide in terms of data collection, while the on-chain data can only show the increase or decrease in quantity, which is different, so the market value of stablecoins is more entangled. The main point at present is USDC.
Regarding the controversy over stablecoins, I hope that experts from all walks of life can give me some advice, which will also help me solve my doubts. Of course, I also hope that you can bring data logic, and I also want to learn more.
PS: I would like to say here that my personal statistics on the inflow and outflow of stablecoins are not for judging short-term rises and falls, but only to identify the market sentiment and dynamics in a certain cycle through the flow of funds. For example, it is expected that the data next week will be positive, but funds are flowing out, which is a bit abnormal, and I need to pay special attention. My point is, make bold assumptions and be careful to verify!
