Interpreting yesterday's unemployment rate and employment data, it is indeed a bit schizophrenic data.

1. The number of new jobs exceeded expectations significantly: 272,000 new jobs were added in May, a significant increase from 165,000 in April, and also exceeded the market expectation of 180,000. This growth rate reached four standard deviations, which made the market sentiment high and caused the pre-market Treasury yield to rise sharply.

2. Rising unemployment rate: Although the number of new jobs increased significantly, the unemployment rate rose from the expected 3.9% to 4%, a two-year high. This shows that although there are more jobs, the number of unemployed people is also increasing.

3. Changes in full-time and part-time jobs: Non-farm employment data is calculated by job, while the unemployment rate is calculated by head. The household survey data in May showed that the number of unemployed people increased by 408,000, the second smallest monthly increase in the past two years. Specifically, full-time jobs decreased by 625,000, while part-time jobs increased by 226,000.

4. The impact of the Fed's policy: Although the number of new jobs exceeded expectations, the rise in the unemployment rate may have a greater impact on the Fed's decision to cut interest rates. The Fed is more concerned about changes in the unemployment rate rather than simply new job data. This view was conveyed by a tweet from the Fed's mouthpiece, which focused on the rise in the unemployment rate.

5. The "schizophrenia" phenomenon in the job market: A contradictory phenomenon has emerged in the US job market, that is, there is a significant difference between non-agricultural employment data and actual household survey data. Among the new jobs, the number of illegal immigrants and temporary workers has increased, while the number of full-time jobs has decreased. This phenomenon shows that the actual situation of the US job market may be more complicated than the data shows on the surface.

In general, although the May employment data looks optimistic on the surface, the rising unemployment rate and the reduction in full-time jobs reveal the potential problems in the US job market. The current data market will fluctuate in the currency circle, and the general direction will not be determined until the Fed's interest rate meeting on June 13.