Preview of US non-farm payrolls in May: The key moment to determine the Fed's interest rate cut - non-farm payrolls become the key to the Fed's next move!

Let's compete for non-farm payrolls at 8:30 pm Beijing time (the last time CPI won, will it continue tonight)

This week, the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank cut interest rates in succession. Switzerland and Sweden have taken the lead. When the Fed will act has become the focus of market discussion, and the outlook for the labor market will become a key factor.

　　The United States will release non-farm payrolls in May at 20:30 Beijing time on June 7 (Friday). Although the labor market shows signs of cooling, Wall Street's median forecast shows that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States will increase by 190,000 in May, an increase from 175,000 in April; the average hourly wage in the United States in May will increase by 3.9% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month (0.2% last month); the unemployment rate will remain at 3.9%.

Wall Street investment banks have a large range of forecasts for new non-farm payrolls. Regions Bank is the most optimistic, predicting 258,000 new jobs, while Santander Bank is the most pessimistic, predicting 120,000 new jobs.

However, before the release of non-farm data, a series of data released by the US job market this week pointed to a cooling trend in the job market, which also made many Wall Street investment banks expect that the Fed's July rate cut is still possible.

Non-farm data is the key to the Fed's next move

From the perspective of the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank, which cut interest rates this week, neither the Bank of Canada nor the European Central Bank has completed the "last mile" of fighting inflation.

Analysts generally believe that the 2% inflation target may not be the primary policy focus of the above two central banks at the moment. As long as inflation shows a downward trend, the two central banks are willing to cut interest rates as soon as possible to help the economy and the labor market.

If the Fed follows the example of other central banks and relaxes the 2% inflation target, then for future economic data, the key to the Fed's policy shift may be labor market data.

So let's look forward to this crucial battle together!